QUOTES OF THE DAY

In America the young are always ready to give to those who are older than themselves the full benefits of their inexperience.
Oscar Wilde

I was thinking about how people seem to read the Bible a whole lot more as they get older; then it dawned on me – they’re cramming for their final exam.
George Carlin

Getting older is no problem. You just have to live long enough.
Groucho Marx

As you get older it is harder to have heroes, but it is sort of necessary.
Ernest Hemingway

Getting old is a fascination thing. The older you get, the older you want to get.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

Like everyone else who makes the mistake of getting older, I begin each day with coffee and obituaries.
Bill Cosby

The older you get the stronger the wind gets – and it’s always in your face.
Pablo Picasso

The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.
H. L. Mencken

The older I get the more wisdom I find in the ancient rule of taking first things first. A process which often reduces the most complex human problem to a manageable proportion.
Dwight D. Eisenhower

As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.
Andrew Carnegie

You will find as you grow older that courage is the rarest of all qualities to be found in public life.
Benjamin Disraeli

Old age is fifteen years older than I am.
Oliver Wendell Holmes

Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.
Herbert Hoover

TEACHERS UNIONS & POLITICIANS HAVE DESTROYED US EDUCATION SYSTEM

There are many excellent teachers in the U.S. There also many average or below average teachers. The teachers unions throughout the country don’t care whether their members are good or bad teachers. As long as they pay their dues, the union will do anything they can to keep anyone from making schools better. Teachers unions only care about teachers, not about educating our children. On top of being responsible for the decline in American education, these teachers are bankrupting our states and localities with their ridiculous healthcare and pension benefits. I judge people by the results of their actions. The teachers unions across the country have failed our children miserably. The results speak for themselves.

The Failure of American Schools

Who better to lead an educational revolution than Joel Klein, the prosecutor who took on the software giant Microsoft? But in his eight years as chancellor of New York City’s school system, the nation’s largest, Klein learned a few painful lessons of his own—about feckless politicians, recalcitrant unions, mediocre teachers, and other enduring obstacles to school reform. 

By Joel Klein

Above: Joel Klein in Brooklyn on the first day of school, two months before he resigned as chancellor
Image credit: Ramin Talaie/Corbis
 

Three years ago, in a New York Times article detailing her bid to become head of the American Federation of Teachers union, Randi Weingarten boasted that despite my calls for “radical reform” to New York City’s school system, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and I had achieved only “incremental” change. It seemed like a strange thing to crow about, but she did have something of a point. New York over the past nine years has experienced what Robert Schwartz, the academic dean of Harvard’s education school, has described as “the most dramatic and thoughtful set of large-scale reforms going on anywhere in the country,” resulting in gains such as a nearly 20-point jump in graduation rates. But the city’s school system is still not remotely where it needs to be. 

That story holds more than true for the country at large. Nearly three decades after A Nation at Risk, the groundbreaking report by the National Commission on Excellence in Education, warned of “a rising tide of mediocrity that threatens our very future as a Nation and a people,” the gains we have made in improving our schools are negligible—even though we have doubled our spending (in inflation-adjusted dollars) on K–12 public education. On America’s latest exams (the National Assessment of Educational Progress), one-third or fewer of eighth-grade students were proficient in math, science, or reading. Our high-school graduation rate continues to hover just shy of 70 percent, according to a 2010 report by the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center, and many of those students who do graduate aren’t prepared for college. ACT, the respected national organization that administers college-admissions tests, recently found that 76 percent of our high-school graduates “were not adequately prepared academically for first-year college courses.” 


Video: Joel Klein explains the twisted politics of New York education in a conversation with Atlantic editor James Bennet 


 

While America’s students are stuck in a ditch, the rest of the world is moving ahead. The World Economic Forum ranks us 48th in math and science education. On international math tests, the United States is near the bottom of industrialized countries (the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), and we’re in the middle in science and reading. Similarly, although we used to have one of the top percentages of high-school and college graduates among the OECD countries, we’re now in the basement for high-school and the middle for college graduates. And these figures don’t take into account the leaps in educational attainment in China, Singapore, and many developing countries. 

During the first three-quarters of the 20th century, America developed an enormously successful middle class, first by making high school universal, and then, after the Second World War, by making college much more available, through the GI Bill and other scholarship programs. As a result, our educational attainment kept pace with our strong technological advancement. But that’s changed markedly since 1980, and now our technological progress is advancing more rapidly than our educational attainment. From 1960 to 1980, our supply of college graduates increased at almost 4 percent a year; since then, the increase has been about half as fast. The net effect is that we’re rapidly moving toward two Americas—a wealthy elite, and an increasingly large underclass that lacks the skills to succeed. 

This division tears at the very fabric of our society. Nevertheless, there’s little national urgency to fix its underlying causes. Unlike a bad economy, poor educational achievement creeps up on us. Right now, if you were running for office, would you be more concerned with unemployment or education? Also, unlike terrorism, an educational crisis has a different impact on the powerful than it does on most of society. Their children, who are in private schools or elite public schools, receive a decent education, so it’s hard to get them fully engaged in the broader national debate. Plus, unlike in health care, for example, where we perceive the quality of care to be good and worry instead about controlling costs and covering the uninsured, in education, despite massive increases in expenditure, we don’t see improved results. That leads too many people to suspect that poverty is destiny, that schools can make only a small difference, and that therefore we’re unable to fix this problem, regardless of its seriousness. So why try? 

If the forces behind reform seem scattered and weak, those defending the status quo—the unions, the politicians, the bureaucrats, and the vendors—are well organized and well financed. Having spent eight years trying to ignite a revolution in New York City’s schools under Bloomberg’s leadership, I am convinced that without a major realignment of political forces, we won’t get the dramatic improvements our children need. 

To comprehend the depth of the problem, consider one episode that still shocks me. Starting in 2006, under federal law, the State of New York was required to test students in grades three through eight annually in math and English. The results of those tests would enable us, for the first time, to analyze year-to-year student progress and tie it to individual teacher performance—a metric known in the field as “teacher value-added.” In essence, you hold constant other factors—where the students start from the prior year, demographics, class size, teacher length of service, and so on—and, based on test results, seek to isolate the individual teacher’s contribution to a student’s progress. Some teachers, for example, move their class forward on average a quarter-year more than expected; others, a quarter-year less. Value-added isn’t a perfect metric, but it’s surely worth considering as part of an overall teacher evaluation. 

After we developed data from this metric, we decided to factor them into the granting of tenure, an award that is made after three years and that provides virtual lifetime job security. Under state law at the time, we were free to use these data. But after the New York City teachers union, the United Federation of Teachers, objected, I proposed that the City use value-added numbers only for the top and bottom 20 percent of teachers: the top 20 percent would get positive credit; the bottom would lose credit. And even then, principals would take value-added data into account only as part of a much larger, comprehensive tenure review. Even with these limitations, the UFT said “No way,” and headed to Albany to set up a legislative roadblock. 

Seemingly overnight, a budget amendment barring the use of test data in tenure decisions materialized in the heavily Democratic State Assembly. Joe Bruno, then the Republican majority leader in the State Senate, assured me that this amendment would not pass: he controlled the majority and would make sure that it remained united in opposition. Fast-forward a few weeks: the next call I got from Senator Bruno was to say, apologetically, that several of his Republican colleagues had caved to the teachers union, which had threatened reprisals in the next election if they didn’t get on board. 

As a result, even when making a lifetime tenure commitment, under New York law you could not consider a teacher’s impact on student learning. That Kafkaesque outcome demonstrates precisely the way the system is run: for the adults. The school system doesn’t want to change, because it serves the needs of the adult stakeholders quite well, both politically and financially. 

Let’s start with the politicians. From their point of view, the school system can be enormously helpful, providing patronage hires, school-placement opportunities for connected constituents, the means to get favored community and business programs adopted and funded, and politically advantageous ties to schools and parents in their communities. 

During my maiden testimony before the State Assembly, I said that we would end patronage hires, which were notorious under the old system of 32 school districts, run by 32 school boards and 32 superintendents (a 2002 state bill granting Bloomberg mayoral control of the city’s schools abolished the 32 boards). At my mention of patronage, the legislators, like Captain Renault in Casablanca, purported to be “shocked.” Nevertheless, after the hearing, when I went to thank committee members, one took me aside and said: “Listen, they’re trying to get rid of a principal in my district who runs a Democratic club for us. If you protect him, you’ll never have a problem with me.” This kind of encounter was not rare. 

Similarly, I faced repeated requests for “constituent services,” meaning good school placements for wired constituents. After we reorganized the system and minimized the power of the 32 local superintendents—the go-to people for politicians under the past regime—a local official called me and asked, “Whom do I call for constituent services after your reorg?” I replied, “What’s that?” Impatiently, he asked, “How do I get a kid into a school when I need to?” I jokingly answered, “Oh, we must have left out that office in the reorg” (actually thinking, silly me, that the school system should use equitable rules for admission). He said, “Go fuck yourself,” and hung up. Despite our constant efforts, or because of them, this kind of political pressure—and payback if we weren’t responsive—happened at every level. Even more important, politicians can reap enormous political support from the unions representing school employees. The two national unions—the American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association—together have some 4.7 million members, who pay hundreds of millions of dollars in national, state, and local dues, much of which is funneled to political causes. Teachers unions consistently rank among the top spenders on politics. 

Moreover, millions of union members turn out when summoned, going door-to-door, staffing phone banks, attending rallies, and the like. Teachers are extremely effective messengers to parents, community groups, faith-based groups, and elected officials, and the unions know how to deploy them well. And just as happy unions can give a politician massive clout, unhappy unions—well, just ask Eva Moskowitz, a Democrat who headed the City Council Education Committee when I became chancellor in 2002. Brilliant, savvy, ambitious, often a pain in my neck, and atypically fearless for an elected official, she was widely expected to be elected Manhattan borough president in 2005. Until, that is, she held hearings on the New York City teachers-union contract—an extraordinary document, running on for hundreds of pages, governing who can teach what and when, who can be assigned to hall-monitor or lunchroom duty and who can’t, who has to be given time off to do union work during the school day, and so on. Truth is, the contract defied parody. So when Moskowitz exposed its ridiculousness, the UFT, then headed by Randi Weingarten, made sure that Moskowitz’s run for borough president came up short. After that, other elected officials would say to me, “I agree with you, but I ain’t gonna get Eva’d.” 

In short, politicians—especially Democratic politicians—generally do what the unions want. And the unions, in turn, are very clear about what that is. They want, first, happy members, so that those who run the unions get reelected; and, second, more members, so their power, money, and influence grow. As Albert Shanker, the late, iconic head of the UFT, once pointedly put it, “When schoolchildren start paying union dues, that’s when I’ll start representing the interests of schoolchildren.” And what do the members want? Employees understandably want lifetime job security (tenure), better pay regardless of performance (seniority pay), less work (short days, long holidays, lots of sick days), and the opportunity to retire early (at, say, 55) with a good lifetime pension and full health benefits; for their part, the retirees want to make sure their benefits keep coming and grow through cost-of-living increases. The result: whether you work hard or don’t, get good results with kids or don’t, teach in a shortage area like math or special education or don’t, or in a hard-to-staff school in a poor community or not, you get paid the same, unless you’ve been around for another year, in which case you get more. Not bad for the adults. 

But it’s just disastrous for the kids in our schools. While out-of-school environment certainly affects student achievement, President Obama was on to something in 2008 when he said: “The single most important factor in determining [student] achievement is not the color of [students’] skin or where they come from. It’s not who their parents are or how much money they have. It’s who their teacher is.” Yet, rather than create a system that attracts and rewards excellent teachers—and that imposes consequences for ineffective or lazy ones—we treat all teachers as if they were identical widgets and their performance didn’t matter. 

In fact, notwithstanding union rhetoric that “tenure is merely due process,” firing a public-school teacher for non-performance is virtually impossible. In New York City, which has some 55,000 tenured teachers, we were able to fire only half a dozen or so for incompetence in a given year, even though we devoted significant resources to this effort. 

The extent of this “no one gets fired” mentality is difficult to overstate—or even adequately describe. Steven Brill wrote an eye-opening piece in The New Yorker about the “rubber rooms” in New York City, where teachers were kept, while doing no work, pending resolution of the charges against them—mostly for malfeasance, like physical abuse or embezzlement, but also for incompetence. The teachers got paid regardless. (To add insult to injury, these cases ultimately were heard by an arbitrator whom the union had to first approve.) Before we stopped this charade—unfortunately by returning many of these teachers to the classroom, as the arbitrators likely would have required—it used to cost the City about $35 million a year. 

In addition, more than 1,000 teachers get full pay while performing substitute-teacher and administrative duties because no principal wants to hire them full-time. This practice costs more than $100 million annually. 

Perhaps the most shocking example of the City’s having to pay for teachers who don’t work involves several teachers accused of sexual misconduct—including at least one who was found guilty—whom the union-approved arbitrators refuse to terminate. Although the City is required to put them back in the classroom, it understandably refuses to do so. And the union has never sued the City to have these teachers reinstated, even though it knows it could readily win. It has also never helped figure out how to get these deadbeats off the payroll, where they may remain for decades at full pay, followed by a lifetime pension. No one—and the union means no one—gets fired. 

Next, consider the consequences of the ubiquitous practice of paying the same for math and physical-education teachers. Given the other job opportunities for talented mathematicians—but not for phys-ed teachers—the same salary will attract many more of the latter than the former. It’s simple supply and demand. But when you’re short of qualified math teachers—as virtually every major urban school district is—poor kids with the greatest needs invariably get cheated, because most teachers prefer to teach highly motivated kids who live in safe communities, and whose parents will contribute private money to the school. The result: too few effective math and science teachers in high-poverty schools. 

Finally, coming on top of these other senseless policies is the remarkable way that benefits and seniority drive overall teacher compensation. It’s possible for a teacher in New York City to retire at 55 and draw down an annual pension of more than $60,000, plus lifetime health benefits for herself and her family. The pension is not subject to New York State or local taxes and goes up with cost-of-living increases. The huge value of this lifetime stream of benefits is rarely mentioned when we talk about teachers’ compensation, but the teachers are well aware of it and act rationally in response to it. What we end up with is both a form of lock-in for employees and an enormous long-term financial exposure for the taxpayers. 

The impact of the lock-in shapes the entire compensation system, because the “big” money comes only after a certain number of years—in New York City, for example, many teachers get their full pension after working 25 years, and a far smaller pension if they work for only 24 years. As a result of backloaded policies like this, after 10 years fewer than 1 percent of teachers leave the system, and after 15 years only about 0.1 percent leave. Many have candidly told me they are burned out, but they can’t afford to leave until their pension fully vests. So they go through the motions until they can retire with the total package. 

Aggravating the perverse incentive of the benefit lock-in is the nature of almost all pay increases in public education, which are either automatic if you stay another year or so, or take 30 college credits; or across-the-board percentage raises—for example, 10 percent over three years, meaning that every veteran teacher making $80,000 gets an $8,000 increase, while every beginning teacher making $40,000 gets a $4,000 increase. 

None of these pay increases makes sense. Why pay someone more for simply working another year or for taking a few courses? Starting last year, Mayor Bloomberg refused to give teachers in New York a raise, because he was facing budget cuts. But the overall pay for teachers still went up nearly 3.5 percent automatically, simply for longevity and college credits. (According to a Department of Education internal analysis, the average NYC teacher works fewer than seven hours a day for 185 days and costs the city $110,000—$71,000 in salary, $23,000 in pensions, and $16,000 in health and other benefits.) And why give all teachers making $80,000, or more, a 10 percent raise? They’re not going to leave, since they’re close to vesting their lifetime pensions. By contrast, increasing starting salaries by $8,000 (rather than $4,000) would help attract and retain better new teachers. But because of seniority, we can’t do it that way. 

Now consider the financial burden that comes with providing lifetime benefits. Given the time between first putting aside the money to fund such a “long-tail exposure” and having to begin paying it, the amount “reserved” by the employer necessarily depends on a host of imprecise assumptions—about the rate of return that the money invested in the pension fund will earn, about how long employees will live, and even about how much overtime employees will work during their last few years, which is normally included in calculations of the amount of the pension. Each dollar set aside this year to cover the ultimate pension exposure must be taken from what would otherwise be current operating dollars. 

Consequently, elected officials have had every incentive to make extraordinarily optimistic assumptions about the pension plan—or to simply underfund it—so they can put as little as possible into the reserve. Unfortunately, but predictably, that’s exactly what has happened: most states “assumed” they would get an average 8 percent return on their pension reserves, when in fact they were getting significantly less. Over the past 10 years, for example, New York City’s pension funds earned an average of just 2.5 percent. Now virtually every pension plan in America that covers teachers has huge unfunded liabilities. A recent study by the Manhattan Institute estimated the total current shortfall at close to $1 trillion. There’s only one way to pay for that: take the money from current and future operating budgets, robbing today’s children to pay tomorrow’s pensions. In NYC, for example, the portion of the overall budget set aside for education pensions went from $455 million in 2002 to $2.6 billion in 2011, most of it for teachers. Not surprisingly, retirees remain politically vigilant, and vote at much higher levels than active teachers in union elections (50 percent versus 24 percent in New York’s last UFT election). 

During my tenure, I fought to break this institutional stranglehold of defenders of the status quo. I did so because I believed that our kids are not getting the education they deserve, that we have clear examples showing dramatically better results, and that we won’t achieve those results if we just keep tinkering. Since 2007, my colleague Michelle Rhee, in Washington, D.C., has been making the same noises. The response, often from friends as well as opponents, was that we were unrealistic: complex systems don’t change easily, impatience is immature, and directly challenging the educational establishment is not a winning strategy. “You need to be more collaborative and less controversial,” we were repeatedly admonished. 

That’s bad advice. Collaboration is the elixir of the status-quo crowd. Consider one of the most cherished mantras in public education today—“We’ll never fix education until we fix poverty.” This lets the school system off the hook: “We can’t do too much with these poor kids, so don’t blame us (but give us more money).” Sure, money, a stable family, and strong values typically make educating a child easier. But we also now know that, keeping those things constant, we can get dramatically different outcomes with the same kid, based on his or her education. Texas and California, for example, have very similar demographics. Nevertheless, even though Texas spends slightly less per pupil than does California, it outperforms California on all four national tests, across demographic groups. The gap is around a year’s worth of learning. That’s big. And the gaps are even bigger when we compare similar demographic groups in large urban districts. Low-income black students in Boston or New York, for example, are several years ahead of those in Detroit or Los Angeles on the national exams. 

At the individual school level, the differences can be breathtaking. One charter school in New York City, Harlem Success Academy 1, has students who are demographically almost identical to those attending nearby community and charter schools, yet it gets entirely different results. Harlem Success has 88 percent of its students proficient in reading and 95 percent in math; six other nearby schools have an average of 31 percent proficient in reading and 39 percent in math. And according to the most-recent scores on New York State fourth-grade science tests, Success had more than 90 percent of its students at the highest (advanced) level, while the city had only 43 percent at advanced, and Success’s black students outperformed white students at more than 700 schools across the state. In fact, Success now performs at the same level as the gifted-and-talented schools in New York City—all of which have demanding admissions requirements, while Success randomly selects its students, mostly poor and minority, by lottery. 

These school-level differences ultimately reflect the effectiveness of a child’s particular teachers. Eric Hanushek, an economist at Stanford, has shown that, while some teachers get a year and a half’s worth of learning into a year, others get in only half a year’s worth of learning with essentially the same students. Imagine the cumulative impact of the best teachers over 13 years of elementary and secondary education. Indeed, even if California raised its performance to Texas’s level, Detroit to Boston’s, the neighborhood schools in Harlem to Harlem Success’s—that is to say, if our least effective teachers performed at the level of our most effective—the impact would be seismic. 

Critics are strangely eager to discredit these differences. Writing last year in The New York Review of Books, the educational historian Diane Ravitch argued that schools like Harlem Success aren’t the answer, because, as a group, charter schools in the U.S. don’t outperform public schools. To make her case, Ravitch relied on a study by Margaret Raymond at Stanford; but curiously, Ravitch failed to mention that Raymond applied precisely the same analysis to New York City (where the school district was atypically supportive of charters), and found that charter schools there were getting significantly better reading and math results with their students than were comparable traditional public schools. And even Ravitch had to acknowledge that some charter schools are getting “amazing results.” If that’s the case, then instead of relying on the kind of group-think that pits charter schools against non-charter schools, shouldn’t we be asking why some schools get much better results, and focus on how we can replicate them? 

Several recent developments offer some hope. In the past year, 42 states, as well as the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands, have agreed to adopt a new set of highly demanding core standards in English and math to replace the current state-by-state standards. The Obama administration has also granted two consortia of states $330 million to design tests aligned with these new standards. As a result, we’ll have a more realistic sense of how our kids are performing, we’ll be able to compare kids in one jurisdiction with those in another, and, most important, we’ll know that kids who graduate from high school will actually be prepared for college. 

But we still won’t get to where we need to go unless we’re prepared to do three difficult, but essential, things: rebuild our entire K–12 system on a platform of accountability; attract more top-flight recruits into teaching; and use technology very differently to improve instruction. 

Surprisingly enough, the best case for greater accountability was made by Albert Shanker, four years before he died, in his capacity as the leader of the American Federation of Teachers. In a truly remarkable speech to the 1993 Pew Forum on Education Reform, which I’ve never seen quoted by any teachers-union official since, Shanker said: 

The key is that unless there is accountability, we will never get the right system. As long as there are no consequences if kids or adults don’t perform, as long as the discussion is not about education and student outcomes, then we’re playing a game as to who has the power.

 

Two points are critical here. First, Shanker makes clear that accountability needs to be measured by “student outcomes,” which he goes on to explain must be based on progress on standardized tests. And second, he calls out the fundamental truth about the system: because it’s not anchored to outcomes, it ends up being about “who has the power,” which can then be used to serve other agendas—such as better pay, political support, or vendor contracts. 

Accountability, in most industries or professions, usually takes two forms. First and foremost, markets impose accountability: if people don’t choose the goods or services you’re offering, you go out of business. Second, high-performing companies develop internal accountability requirements keyed to market-based demands. 

Public education lacks both kinds of accountability. It is essentially a government-run monopoly. Whether a school does well or poorly, it will get the students it needs to stay in business, because most kids have no other choice. And that, in turn, creates no incentive for better performance, greater efficiency, or more innovation—all things as necessary in public education as they are in any other field. 

A full-scale transition from a government-run monopoly to a competitive marketplace won’t happen quickly. But that is no reason not to begin introducing more competition. Many middle-class families have plenty of choice (even beyond private schools): they can move to another neighborhood, or are well-connected enough to navigate the system. Those families who are least powerful, however, usually get one choice: their neighborhood school. That has to change. 

In the lower grades, we should make sure that every student has at least one alternative—and preferably several—to her neighborhood school. We implemented this strategy by opening more than 100 charter schools in high-poverty communities. Tellingly, almost 40,000 families chose these new schools, and another 40,000 are on waiting lists. The traditional schools, as well as their employees and the unions, are screaming bloody murder, something vividly depicted in The Lottery, a recent documentary that shows community agitators brought in by the union to oppose giving public-school space to the Harlem Success network. But this kind of push-back is actually a good sign: it means that the monopolists are beginning to feel the effects of competition. 

At the middle- and high-school levels, where students are more mobile, we can also create community-based choice systems, or even citywide choice systems. In New York City, for example, high-school students now have citywide choice (with some geographic priority), and schools know they have to recruit—and compete for—students. 

To support effective choice, moreover, we need to provide real funding equity: the money must be for the child, not the school. So if Juan goes to PS 11, which gets $20,000 as a result, then that same $20,000 must go to a KIPP charter school if Juan decides to go there. Similarly, capital funds, or space within a school building, must also follow the child—either to PS 11 or to KIPP—on equitable terms. 

Unfortunately, the likelihood of rapidly expanding choices remains small. Witness, for example, those 40,000 families wait-listed for charter schools in New York City. By the time the City opens another 100 schools to meet that demand, at least another 40,000 families will likely be waiting. And now that the union and its allies have seen the smashing impact of the first 100 charter schools, they won’t make it any easier to open the next 100. 

That’s why internal accountability along the lines that Shanker discussed is critical. School districts need a system to fairly evaluate the effect of schools and teachers on kids, which is the best proxy we have for assessing “consumer preference” in a largely monopolistic system. Shanker also had the right idea about how to measure outcomes: by looking at student progress on apples-to-apples metrics, rather than at whether students do well or poorly against an absolute, static index. On a four-point scale, for example, a teacher deserves credit for moving a kid from a 1 to a 2 and should lose credit for letting another kid fall from a 4 to a 3, even though a 3 is better than a 2 in an absolute sense. Some kids come to school way ahead of others, and giving the school or teacher credit for that makes no sense. But if schools or teachers have essentially the same kids, with the same challenges, and the same starting performance levels, it’s pretty easy to measure which are helping the kids make progress and which aren’t. 

Finally, as Shanker emphasized, meaningful teacher accountability means major consequences for student outcomes. Those teachers and principals whose students do well should get substantial merit pay; those who don’t should be fired. Similarly, schools that do poorly should be replaced. Without real consequences tied to performance, the results won’t significantly change. Again, resistance to this kind of accountability is always fierce. In New York, we closed many large, overwhelmingly minority high schools that were posting abysmal graduation rates—some even below 40 percent—and replaced them with new, small high schools. Although research showed that the new schools were getting significantly better results, I wasn’t surprised when the teachers union sued us to block future closures—they want to protect their members. But I was shocked when the NAACP joined the suit. How could it defend schools that were consistently graduating fewer than half their African American children? 

Despite the setbacks, we are seeing progress. In response to President Obama’s $4.3 billion Race to the Top Fund, which requires states to compete for big federal grants, and rewards accountability systems that measure whether teachers add value, several states—including Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Ohio—have enacted legislation moving in this direction. Under Michelle Rhee’s leadership, Washington, D.C., adopted the best of these systems with the agreement of its local and national teachers unions, including the union headed by Randi Weingarten. The District was authorized to award substantial merit pay (resulting in salaries of up to $130,000) and to fire teachers who were not performing well. Rhee fired more than 200 of them. 

But although Weingarten’s union had agreed to the contract, it reportedly spent $1 million and mobilized huge numbers of volunteers to defeat Washington’s mayor, Adrian Fenty, when he was up for reelection two months later. That intervention surely sent a message to other reformers throughout the country: we unions talk reform, but firing incompetent teachers will never be a real part of that. 

The second big thing we need to change is the people we attract into teaching. When McKinsey and Company compared educational performance around the world, it came to the seemingly obvious, yet often disputed, conclusion that “the quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers”: 

The top-performing school systems [internationally] attract more able people into the teaching profession, leading to better student outcomes … The top-performing systems we studied recruit their teachers from the top third of each cohort [that graduates] from their school system … Conversely, lower-performing school systems rarely attract the right people into teaching. The New Commission on the Skills of the American Workforce observes that, “We are now recruiting our teachers from the bottom third of high-school students going to college.”

 

By recruiting teachers mostly from the middle and bottom of their college classes, as America has done for decades now, not only did we not get the talent we needed, but we also fostered a culture where excellence and merit don’t matter. 

A rational compensation scheme is critical to fixing this core human-capital weakness: rather than just pay for longevity and lifetime benefits, we must reward excellence and enable the system to meet its needs. If, going forward, we eliminated all the automatic raises and promises of huge lifetime benefits, we’d have an enormous amount of money to devote to merit pay, hardship-assignment incentives, and recruiting in subjects where we have shortages. If we could front-load compensation, new teachers could get as much as $80,000 by year three or four. This would make a huge difference. If you have any doubt, just ask the talented, ambitious young teachers who come through Teach for America or comparable programs. Many leave well before they peak, even though they like the work, because their pay remains quite low in the early years—up to about $55,000—and they are unwilling to commit to staying around for 25 years to cash in on the back-loaded pay structure. 

I once proposed a portion of this—simply eliminating the lifetime, defined-benefit pension, monetizing the savings, and then paying it to teachers in their early years—in a conversation with union officials. I was prepared to give each new teacher a choice between the current pay scale (with the existing pension) and this new pay proposal. Although no teacher would have been compelled to switch, the UFT rejected the idea as “anti-union.” But we have evidence to show that these monetary incentives can work. In Washington, D.C., Michelle Rhee negotiated a merit-based compensation system—where teachers could get paid much more in the early years. As a result, it appears, significant numbers of teachers from D.C.’s charter schools apply to teach in its traditional public schools. Only money can explain that. 

Of course, another way to attract and retain very effective teachers would be to create more schools that work. In my experience, many of the best public-school teachers apply to high-functioning charter schools, even though they usually give up job security, and lifetime health care and pensions, while generally getting a similar or slightly higher salary (although often augmented by modest merit pay). They go because they want to be part of a successful school, where teachers are treated like professionals and not subjected to endless administrative and union micromanagement. 

Last, to shake up the system, we must change how we use technology to deliver instruction. (This is what I’m now seeking to do at News Corporation.) The present resistance to innovation is breathtaking. Consider this story: When we replaced many large, failing high schools with more, much smaller schools, many of the new schools had only a handful of kids who wanted to take rigorous Advanced Placement courses, which can earn students college credit. Several good online programs teach the necessary course content. But in New York state, you cannot get high-school credit unless you’re taught by a live teacher (a requirement referred to as “seat time”), and these small schools didn’t have enough students to bring in an AP teacher. I approached our State Education Department in Albany, which had the authority to waive the seat-time requirement: if a kid could get college credit for passing an online AP course, surely she should be able to get high-school credit as well. 

As soon as the UFT heard that we had requested a waiver from the state, it faxed us a letter saying, “The elimination of seat-time requirements needs to be negotiated,” making clear that if we tried to proceed, this would be war. You see, if we opened the door to online AP courses, maybe we’d end up needing fewer teachers, and that wouldn’t be good for union membership, dues, or power. I got nowhere. 

But one of the best things we could do is hire fewer teachers and pay more to the ones we hire. And, as in any other field, technology can help get us there. If you have 5,000 math teachers, many of whom are underperforming, significantly improving overall quality is nearly impossible. But if you get the best math professors in the world—who are great teachers and who deeply understand math—and match them with great software developers, they can create sophisticated interactive programs that engage kids and empower teachers. Why not start with such a program and then let teachers supplement it differently, depending on the progress of each student? 

That’s a whole lot easier than trying to teach the same math lesson to 30 kids, some of whom are getting it quickly and some of whom aren’t getting it at all. We now have multiple ways to teach the same lessons. As a result, we can tailor both the means and the pacing to each student. We can use digital games where kids progress based on solving increasingly difficult math problems, virtual classes that kids can take online, and tutors whom kids can work with online, as well as, of course, teachers working with large or small groups in person. The possibilities are enormous. We should be trying them all and constantly improving how we do the work. That’s exactly what New York City is doing in a pilot program called the School of One, which was designed to move from the classroom as the locus of instruction to the individual student as the focus of instruction. 

More broadly, we need to foster a fundamental shift from a top-down, one-size-fits-all culture—mandated class-size reduction, after-school programs, and the like—to a culture that supports innovation. In New York City, we set out to change these preexisting dynamics by allowing educators and community groups—rather than the central bureaucracy—to design and run new schools to replace the failing ones. The result was a lot of innovation. For example, New York City is now piloting something called the Generation School, which uses staff time very differently and thus extends the school day and year significantly. Last year, the City also opened something called the New American Academy, where four teachers are collectively responsible for educating 60 kids, and they stay with those children from kindergarten through the fifth grade. The teachers are categorized as Master, Partner, Associate, and Apprentice, and they are paid very differently and get promoted from one level to the next based on performance as well as peer and supervisory review. 

Change is possible. In New York City, it took a mayor willing to assume control over the system and risk significant political capital. It required time—Mayor Bloomberg and I had more than eight years together, while most urban superintendents serve for about three and a half years. It required taking risks, knowing that not every change will work out and that your critics will focus mercilessly on those that don’t. But most of all, it required building community and political support. Toward the end of my tenure, we were engaged in an enormous fight to lift the state-imposed cap on our number of charter schools—an initiative the teachers unions strongly opposed precisely because our expansion of charter schools had been so successful. In fact, six months earlier, a similar effort had gone down to defeat at the unions’ hands. But this time, the families with kids in charter schools and our allies in the community were prepared to help us fight. Philanthropic and business interests raised millions to support the mobilization effort, run ads, and hire lobbyists. We prevailed, and the cap was raised substantially. 

Sadly, that kind of success is still exceptional. In the three decades since A Nation at Risk came out, many have echoed its cries of alarm, but few have heeded its calls for bold change. Indeed, in his 1993 Pew Forum speech, Al Shanker spoke in shockingly candid terms: 

We are at the point that the auto industry was at a few years ago. They could see they were losing market share every year and still not believe that it really had anything to do with the quality of the product I think we will get—and deserve—the end of public education through some sort of privatization scheme if we don’t behave differently. Unfortunately, very few people really believe that yet. They talk about it, and they don’t like it, but they’re not ready to change and stop doing the things that brought us to this point.

 

Time is running out. Without political leadership willing to take risks and build support for “radical reform,” and without a citizenry willing to insist on those reforms, our schools will continue to decline. And just as it was with Detroit, the global marketplace will be very unforgiving to a populace that doesn’t have the skills it demands. McKinsey estimates that the benefits of bringing our educational levels up to those of the highest-performing countries would have raised our gross domestic product by about $2 trillion in 2008. By the same token, every year we fail to close that gap is like living with the equivalent of a permanent national recession. Shocking as that may sound, the costs in human terms, to our nation and to the kind of people we aspire to become, will be even greater. 

FOURTH TURNING GAINING ATTENTION

A gentleman from another Ivy League University that I have had email correspondence with sent me an interesting email this morning. He had been asked by a world renowned hedge fund manager to review and summarize Strauss & Howe’s Fourth Turning. The hedge fund manager was intrigued by the book and wanted another opinion from someone he could trust. Below is the review. It seems that the Fourth Turning concept is gaining traction among smart open minded people.

Sorry for the highly delayed opinion of Strauss and Howe’s “The Fourth Turning”. I spend enough time keeping up with daily noise that mowing through books is difficult. A quick clarification. I write up and post reviews of books I read, so this letter will assume a little flavor of that. I should add that my motivation to read the book was initiated by the drumbeat in the bear community, enhanced by Jim Quinn’s “Burning Platform” blogs based extensively on the premise of an impending Fourth Turning, and accelerated to the point of action by your interest in the book. (I am particularly intrigued that a guy managing tens of billions and benefiting enormously during what the authors call the “unraveling” would be so interested in such a book.) I especially enjoy reading books about the present (and future) that are not written contemporaneously (1996 in this case); it makes the resonances so compelling when they arise.


To refresh your memory from your distant read, the book describes a scenario in which the saeculum (80 year generational cycle) is comprised of four societal cycles (a high or rebirth, awakening, unraveling, and crisis), each lasting about 20 years. A parallel analysis describes generational types that spend essentially a human lifetime proceeding through the societal four cycles in a sequence that depends very much on which cycle one is born into. There appears to be a perfect symmetry–every person experiences four cycles and every cycle has four different generations experiencing it, each at different stages of their lives. In practice, I found the societal cycles–the temperaments and actions of society at large–far more understandable than the generational archetypes. I think this asymmetry is caused by the authors’ looser definition of generations (more of them since WWII, for example). The premise that each turning has a personality that is a direct consequence of the personalities of preceding generational cycles–Turning 1 (rebirth) naturally leads to Turning 2 (awakening) which naturally leads to turning 3 (unraveling) culminating in Turning 4 (crisis)–is certainly provocative. The critical component of the thesis is not that bad things happen in cycles but rather society’s RESPONSE to the incessant wave of events (Black Swans) follows cycles. Another critical component is that these generational changes will arrive regardless of the minutiae of events, and they will do so rather abruptly. (Clearly, parallels with secular market changes are inescapable.)


First, the weaknesses. The book seems to suffer a little from trying to place inherently sloppy patterns into neat categories. This is not a major problem, but potentially a source of allergic reaction to some. The historical treatise describing previous studies of cycle theories published over literally two millennia (Kondratiev being the most familiar) was necessary but offered a slow start to the book. (It would have been a killer if I hadn’t read a lot of history over the last decade.) This historical treatise was especially tough in that, although I could buy into their assertion that the War of the Roses was a Fourth Turning, I could not begin to imagine the societal moods necessary to place it in the right context. By contrast, generational changes in the 20th century US fit like an old shoe. None of these issues are fatal, just the weakest links.


With that said, I found that “The Fourth Turning” seemed to dovetail nicely into a Worldview that I have been developing for over a decade. I had many times noted to friends and on blogs that kids growing up in the 80’s and 90’s couldn’t possibly understand that the World can be a cruel place; the world rotated on its axis without precessing. Also, EVERY generation concludes that the subsequent generation is all screwed up so surely there are generational rollovers. The description of the crisis era not just involving conflicts but conflicts leading to catharsis also seems to fit the facts. I thought they did a great job of describing the eras and personalities in the 20th century–an insightful stroll down memory lane. I am a huge fan of pithy quotes, so the enormous number of quotes used to describe temperament of the various eras hit the hot bone on me.


The money shot came in the last 100 pages of the book in which they predict (again, in 1996) the Fourth Turning (the crisis) would arrive in the 2005-2010 window. Of course, every period has events that could be construed as proximate triggers (not causes but triggers) for a turning as well as crises, but the authors’ description was hauntingly accurate. I don’t know if you remember this, but they mentioned the trigger as possibly a financial crisis (check), broken promises by government (check), suffocating student loans (check), boomers beginning to overtax the system (check), and then the most surreal statement of all “something so trivial as a tea party.” I read that last one about five times. These guys clearly understood the unsustainability of the factors that have shoved us into gold-based investments. The stated influence of Pete Peterson on their thinking was readily apparent. (My son just so happens to work for him.)


As I read the book, I found myself pondering the Fourth Turning and concluded that, if their generational model is correct, it has indeed arrived. I asked a colleague what the historians would label as the proximate trigger, and he said 9/11. I don’t think so. Could it be the financial crisis? Closer, but still not quite right in my opinion. I would say that the proximate trigger was the disastrously inadequate response to the financial crisis. Of course, I am not referring to a Krugmanesque monetary policy but rather to the complete absence of new safeguards and retribution. I suspect that authorities might go after many of your friends in the hedge fund world, but that totally misses the mark; you guys are expected to game the system. By example, prosecuting Rajaratnam (who I am sure is worthy of a few convictions) but not Gupta decidedly misses the mark. Gupta was the one who breached public trust in the system. The authorities had to clean up the system itself, and they have clearly failed miserably. There’s only one conviction resulting from the mortgage crisis and it was a guy who lied on a liar loan. Well duh! Of particular, importance, they didn’t just try and fail to clean up the system, they never even tried. I think society watched patiently and, only within the last few months, has started to get angry. (I just read an article by Jeff Sachs this AM expressing enormous anger over the crime wave that has gone unchecked.) This period in which we began to realize nothing has changed may be identified as the brief period in which, ironically, society’s temperament changed quite drastically. It will be marked as the onset of the Fourth Turning.


If Strauss and Howe have it right then it is clearly time to duck and cover. What I see going forward are (1) resource constraints (as discussed previously), (2) conflict with China (possibly in the cathartic final stages); (3) seemingly endless shock waves resulting from collapsing credit markets (seems like an easy call); and (4) the demographic problems and defaulted promises (clearly articulated by the authors.) As Stephen Roach once said, however, “the ultimate insult would be to call it right and play it wrong.” I don’t see any riskless moves at this point. Admittedly, the riskless moves are often the ones in which there is so much perceived risk that it is priced in and, thus, removed…but I still can’t see them yet. A guy named Chris Martenson told me that people often say buying gold in 2001 was so easy because it was obviously so cheap. We shared a laugh over that one. Being a contrarian is painful as hell (as you know).


After finishing a book, I scamper over to Amazon’s comments section to read what others thought. I especially like to read the negative reviews (one and two stars). It is clear that most of the negatives come from those who didn’t understand the most fundamental tenets of the authors’ thesis. Others took offense at the description of their own generation (especially the youngsters lacking some wisdom imparted by time). Some saw a political agenda. (I did not.) A slug of reviews posted right after 9/11 emanated  from people looking for some sort of explanation. Given that 9/11 was a bad event in the third rather than fourth turning, they were not going to find any. Still others simply could not grasp that the era at the time of posting could possibly give way to a new one, which represents precisely the authors’ premise that the turnings keep marching on and arrive without much warning. Of course, the five star reviews were people like me who found that the book got in their heads and rattled around a lot.


Hope this review offered some insight.

WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY HAVE WE BECOME?

 

I live about 5 miles from Souderton. It is a small middle class town surrounded by farms. I’m sure it has a very low crime rate. People who live in Souderton and my town feel safe. It is 30 long miles from the squalor and crime of West Philly. Then in an instant, a beautiful 9 year old girl is playing outside her apartment in the middle of the afternoon and is abducted, raped, bludgeoned, and strangled to death by her 24 year old demented neighbor. My faith in humanity just took another body blow. How can this happen? What is it in our society that makes men do such a thing? This act is so incompehensible to me that I’m just left depressed and wondering whether our society is so far gone that there is no hope.

This fiend had never had any trouble with the law. He had a fiancee. How many more of these ghouls are sitting in their apartments fantasizing about murdering little girls? Is it TV? Is it his parents? Is it a genetic defect? Is it the devil? I don’t know. I don’t know anything. I don’t know about a lot of things anymore. The older I get, the more I don’t understand.

But, even with my complete disillusionment with our society, I still had a few questions after reading this horrifying tale. His fiancee told police she heard  a little girl screaming in pain and terror. Why the fuck didn’t she do something? Why didn’t she run toward the screams and save this little girl. She didn’t even call the police. She called the killer.

Secondly, the police in this country will taser you during a traffic stop and treat you like a Muslim terrorist at our airports, but three weeks ago this demented killer had this girl and her friend in his apartment with the door locked and asked them if they wanted to see his dick. The girls reported it to police and they DID NOTHING!!!!

In what kind of society does a 24 year old man ask two 9 year old girls if they want to see his dick and the police don’t think that is a problem?

We live in a sick sick world that is spiraling downward. I’m completely disgusted with everything.

Souderton girl murdered

When 9-year-old Skyler Kauffman didn’t come in for dinner after playing with friends Monday evening outside her Souderton Garden Apartments home, her family went looking, then notified police who continued the search and put out an Amber alert.

“It’s one of those situations where everyone did what they were supposed to do,” Montgomery County District Attorney Risa Vetri Ferman said, but, unfortunately, it wasn’t enough this time.

James Lee Troutman, 24, who lived in another apartment in the same complex at Second and Chestnut streets, was arraigned Tuesday evening on charges including murder, kidnapping and rape of a child.

Minutes before midnight, Detective George Moyer had found Kauffman’s body wrapped in a comforter under bags of trash in a trash container behind the apartments.

Troutman had no significant police record, Ferman said.

“This is one of those terribly disturbing situations where they happen seemingly out of nowhere,” she said.

During the arraignment, Troutman sat for much of the time with his head cupped by one or both of his hands.

He answered “yes” to Magisterial District Judge Kenneth Deatelhauser’s question of whether he understood the charges, then was returned to prison. Because of the charges, Troutman is not eligible to be freed on bail, Deatelhauser said. A preliminary hearing was scheduled for 1 p.m. May 19. Troutman did not have an attorney at the arraignment.

“Dirtbag” was the first of the epithets shouted at Troutman as he was taken, wearing a bullet-proof vest, from a police car into the arraignment.

After the arraignment, the shouts became such a din that individual ones could not be made out.

“You’re gonna burn,” one said.

“Die, Troutman, die,” another said.

Police were called by Kauffman’s mother and grandmother about 7:11 p.m. Monday, May 9, according to the affidavit of probable cause. Kauffman had last been seen by the family about 5 p.m.

Another resident told the responding officer he had seen blood in a basement area of one of the apartment buildings. When the officer went to the basement, he found both blood and a clog that was similar to the one Kauffman had been described as wearing, the court papers say.

Montgomery County Detective Edward Schikel, of the Forensic Services Unit, who met and talked to Troutman while investigating at the scene, saw what appeared to be blood on one of Troutman’s sneakers, police said.

That attention to detail helped speed up the investigation and lead to the arrest, Ferman said.

“Without that observation, I don’t know if we’d be here today,” she said.

After going to Troutman’s apartment and being given permission by Troutman’s fiancé to search for the missing girl, Schikel found bloody clothes, police said.

Troutman’s fiancé, Heather Clemens, said that Troutman left the apartment about 5 p.m. Monday and said he was going outside to play games on his cell phone, investigators said.

Clemens later heard a female voice screaming loudly, “wailing” and saying no in a way that was “long and drawn out when she said no, like nooooooo! while she was still crying,” investigators said.

When Clemens called Troutman, investigators said, she did not get an answer, but he called back about five minutes later and said he was exercising at Indian Crest Middle School. After she told him about the screams, Clemens told investigators, Troutman said he hoped “everything’s OK.”

He later came home, changed, took a shower and they ate dinner, police said.

Troutman initially admitted to talking to Kauffman around 5 p.m. Monday night, but denied killing her, police said.

He later admitted choking her, police said.

Troutman described the killing as having happened when he “snapped” and “It was like a white out,” police said.

Asked by officers why he killed Kauffman, he said he had to because once he took her down the basement he knew she could get him in trouble,” police said.

An autopsy showed Kauffman died of asphyxia and blunt force trauma, police said.

There was no previous connection between Kauffman and Troutman, other than being neighbors, Ferman said. He was not a relative or friend of the family.

There was, however, a previous incident, police said, in which on April 18, Kauffman and another girl were near Troutman’s apartment when they needed to use the bathroom and he invited them to use his.

Taking them to the bathroom, he told the girls to ignore the photos of naked women on the walls, police said.

The girls became nervous and tried to leave, but found the apartment door was locked, then unlocked it and escaped, police said. In that incident, Troutman also allegedly asked the two girls if they wanted to see his “bird,” police said.

No charges were filed in that case.

WOULD YOU LIKE A LITTLE OIL WITH THAT VINEGAR?

Another great article on Peak Oil from Gail the Actuary on  http://www.theoildrum.com/. If her assessment of oil production between now and 2021 is even close to accurate, we’re in a world of hurt. Impartial articles like this one should convince the most delusional peak oil denier that their drill,drill, drill mantra is nothing but hot air. I hadn’t seen the figure she stated as being the current cost for a barrel of oil to be produced in the Middle East as $95. That would appear to put a floor on the price of oil at a level above $95.

The good news is that our oil consumption will decline as soon as the price gets high enough to push our country back into recession. We are just about there. So, oil prices will decline again, but the low price this time will be much higher than the last low. This is the bumpy plateau. Supply and demand sure is a bitch. Expect some more humanitarian invasions of Middle East countries sitting on top of our oil.

My little peak oil widget just passed the 10 billion barrels consumed level for the year so far. I wonder if we discovered 10 billion new barrels during this same time frame.

Peak Oil – April 2011 Update

Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 2, 2011 – 1:27pm
The US Energy Information Administration’s January oil production figures are out, and they show record oil production. Where are we headed from here?

 


Figure 1. World “Liquids” Production through January 2011, based on Energy Information Administration data. 

While production for January is up a bit (219,000 barrels compared to December), the monthly numbers bounce around a fair amount because of planned maintenance. They are also subject to revision. Figure 2 seems to indicate that the production amounts are trending upward a bit, probably in response to the recent higher prices. 


Figure 2. Monthly average Brent Oil price and total “liquids” produced, both from US Energy Information Administration. 

The amounts in Figures 1 and 2 are not entirely up to date, since they are only through January 31, 2011. All of the disruption in the Middle East started at the very end of January, and the disruption in Libya’s supplies did not start until February.  The earthquake in Japan took place March 11. OPEC estimates that OPEC and world oil supply fell in both February and March, with Libya’s production falling by 1.2 million barrels a day between January and March, with only small supply increases elsewhere offsetting this. World oil prices continue to be high. At this writing, West Texas Intermediate is about $111.50 a barrel; Brent is about $122. 

So what do we expect going forward? 

Eventual Decline, but not Following a Hubbert Curve 

It seems to me that the story about what happens in the future with oil supply is much more complex than what depletion and new supply alone would suggest. As I explained in a previous post (Our Finite World version and Oil Drum version), the actual downslope is likely to be steeper than what a Hubbert Curve would suggest, because economies of many importing countries are likely to be adversely affected by rising oil prices, and because demand (and tax collections) are likely to be low in countries that lose jobs to countries that use oil more sparingly. 

Hubbert assumed that nuclear or some other cheap alternative form of energy would allow business to go on pretty much as usual without oil. We know now that we are close to the downslope, but no inexpensive alternative has been developed in quantity. Because of this, actual production is likely to be less than the amount that is theoretically possible. This happens because of indirect impacts of inadequate oil supply, such as recession when prices oil prices rise; riots when food is in short supply; and inadequate demand for oil because of jobs move overseas to countries using less oil, leaving many unemployed. 

In some sense, if oil prices could rise indefinitely, we would never have a peak oil problem. The high prices would either stimulate production of alternative types of energy or would enable oil production in areas where oil is very costly to extract. The indirect impacts mentioned above prevent oil prices from rising indefinitely.  These indirect impacts seem to be related to inadequate net energy for society as a whole. Theoretically, if oil prices could rise indefinitely, we could even end up using more energy to extract a barrel of oil than really is in the barrel of oil in the first place–something that is hardly possible. The fact that rising oil prices lead to impacts that tend to cut back demand seems to be a way of keeping prices in line with the energy the oil actually provides. 

Which countries are able to buy the oil that is produced? 

If we look at oil consumption by area, we find the following: 


Figure 3. Oil consumption by area, based on EIA data. 

It is clear from Figure 3 that consumption of my grouping called “Europe, US, Japan, and Australia) is much flatter (and recently declining) than that of the “Remainder.” The Remainder includes oil exporting nations, plus China and India and other “lesser developed” countries, many of which are growing more rapidly than countries like Europe, US, Japan, and Australia. 

I have plotted the same data shown in Figure 3 as a line graph in Figure 4. The latter figure shows even more clearly how different the oil use growth rates have been. 


Figure 4. Data from Figure 3, graphed as a line graph, instead of a stacked area chart. 

If world oil supply is close to flat (shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3), Figure 4 shows that we have a potential for a real conflict going forward. The “Remainder” countries in Figure 4 will want to continue to increase their oil usage in future years, even if oil supply remains flat. This is likely to lead to considerable competition for available oil and high prices, such as we are seeing now. About the only way the “Remainder” countries can increase their oil usage is if oil usage by the “Europe, US, Japan, and Australia” group declines. 

Many people believe that the only alternative to adequate oil supply is for the amount of oil produced by oil companies to fall and because of this, for shortages to result. While this scenario is possible, especially in the presence of price controls, in this post we show another way that oil consumption can be limited. 

A very common way that oil usage (consumption) can be expected to decline is if high oil prices induce a recession. The countries that seem to be most susceptible to recession are countries that are (1) oil importers and (2) are heavy users of oil, since an increase in oil price has the most adverse impact on the financial health of these countries. When recession is induced, there are layoffs. These layoffs reduce oil usage in two ways: (1) less oil is used for making and transporting products that these workers would have made, and (2) the laid off workers are less able to afford products using oil, so reduce their purchase of oil products. 

Because of this relationship, competition for oil is likely to be very closely related to competition for jobs in the future. The countries that get the jobs can be expected to get a disproportionate share of oil that is available. 


Figure 5. Per Capita Energy Consumption, based on EIA data. 

If we look at per capita oil consumption (Figure 5) on a world basis, it has been close to flat since 1985, because oil production until very recently rose enough that oil growth more or less corresponded to population growth. China and India’s per capita oil consumption rose, meaning that the oil consumption of someone somewhere, such as the Former Soviet Union, needed to decline. 

Future Oil Supply 

If we look at historical oil production (Figure 6), it has been fairly “bumpy”: 


Figure 6. World oil production for crude, condensate and natural gas liquids. 1965-2009 from BP; 2010 from EIA. 

By fitting trend lines, we can see where oil production seems to be headed: 


Figure 7. World oil production from Figure 6, with fitted exponential growth trend lines. 

What we can see from Figure 7 is that the growth rate of world oil supply has gradually been slowing. The growth rate was highest in the 1965 to 1973 period, at 7.9% per year. Then we hit the “oops” period of 1973 to 1975, when we ran into conflict with OPEC regarding oil supplies. The trend rate dropped to 3.9% in the 1975 to 1979 period. Between 1979 and 1983, oil consumption dropped to a -3.9% per year, when we picked some of the low hanging fruit regarding oil usage (mostly by eliminating petroleum from electricity generation and downsizing automobiles). The trend between 1983 and 2004 shifted to +1.5% per year, and since 2004, seems to be about +0.2%. 

There are so many countries involved, that it is not easy to identify one country or area that is rising, but one country of note is Iraq. Its production in January, 2011, seems to be up by 300,000 barrels per day, relative to mid-2010, based on the latest data. Thus Iraq seems, for now, to be helping to keep world oil production flat, or even growing by a bit, despite increasing depletion elsewhere. 

Looking at Figure 7,  it looks like the “trend” in trend rates over time is down. In the absence of other information, we would expect production to remain at its recent trend rate of 0.2%, or alternatively, the trend rate could take another step downward, probably to an absolute decline in oil production. A recent announcement from Saudi Arabia suggests that its ability to offset declines elsewhere in the future is likely to be virtually nil, so a continued decline in production from the North Sea and elsewhere will need to be made up with new production elsewhere, or will lead to a worldwide decline in oil production. 

World population has been growing. If oil production remains flat or declines, and world population grows,  this means that someone has to be a loser, in terms of per capita consumption. I am not certain how this will turn out, but I see at least three forces that may come into play: 

1. Countries may figure out that permitting jobs to move to less developed countries is not in their best interests, and start increasing protectionism. This will tend to keep demand more level (higher for importers, and lower for growing economies). The overall impact on oil demand is less clear–less oil will be needed for long-distance transport, but more oil will be needed to maintain current lifestyles of workers. 

2. Countries that are in financial difficulty may find themselves increasingly shunned, as they seek to “restructure” their debt, and may find themselves increasingly cut off from buying oil products and the goods that that are made using oil products. This will tend to reduce aggregate world demand for oil, by reducing consumption in specific countries that have financial difficulty. 

3. There may be recession affecting a number of countries, reducing their demand for oil. We don’t know how exactly that this will change the shape of the world oil production curve, but Figure 8 shows my very rough guess as to how supply might be affected. (Your view may differ.) 


Figure 8. Historical crude, condensate, and NGL production based on BP and EIA data, plus a Guesstimate of Future Oil Supply. 

It seems to me that as we go forward, we are likely to see a jagged pattern in oil production decline, reflecting a combination of less demand for high-priced oil as oil supplies continue to be very tight, except at high prices. In addition, some countries can be expected to increasingly drop out of competition for oil, as their financial situations deteriorate. Thus, the pattern for decline in oil consumption can be expected to vary significantly from country to country, depending on their policies and their financial conditions. 

Clues as to Which Countries May Drop Out First 

If we look at the per-capita consumption of the PIIGS countries, we see that for the most part, these were countries that increased their consumption of oil, and then were not able to maintain the increase. 


Figure 9. Per capita oil consumption of PIIGS countries, based on EIA data. 

The difference is quite striking when we compare per-capita oil consumption to a few of the non-PIIGS European countries. 


Figure 10. Per capita oil consumption of selected European “non-PIIGS,” based on EIA data. 

Why is there such a different pattern between the PIIGS and the non-PIIGS? I haven’t researched the situation extensively, but it would seem as though the PIIGS countries tended to be agricultural countries that tried to develop more diversified (oil intensive) economies. They expanded and incurred a lot of debt, and now this debt is becoming difficult to pay back. As far as I can see, this economic growth was not based on the growth of stable, fairly cheap supply of electricity, such as hydro-electric or coal. Instead, growth depended fairly heavily on oil use, and the cost of oil rose. It may be that part of this growth in oil use occurred because of an improvement in standard of living–more cars, more vacations, bigger homes. 

My working hypothesis is that when oil prices went up, the economies of the PIIGS countries had too much debt for the new industries to provide enough revenue to service both the higher costs of oil and the debt costs. Countries which didn’t try to grow in this way didn’t have as much difficulty, although high oil prices are still a burden for them. They may eventually run into debt problems, just a little later. 

What are China and India and some of the other countries that are growing rapidly doing differently, that their economies haven’t collapsed? One thing they have going for them is the fact that their oil usage is at a vastly lower level, even after rapid growth. Another thing that they often have going for them is growing electricity production, using an energy source that is relatively cheap. In the case of China and India, this is mostly coal; in the case of some of the other lesser developed countries, it is hydro-electric. 

It seems as though at some price, each country will hit recessionary pressures and drop back in its demand for oil. This price will vary by country, depending on the country’s current debt situation, the extent to which the country can continue to “grow” its economy based on a growing source of cheap electricity, and how well international trade holds up with increased protectionism and higher oil prices. Countries depending on growing hydroelectric and coal-fired electricity are likely to hit limits, too, as these supplies reach natural limits. 

One situation which may affect how long oil prices can stay high for the United States is the existence of QE2, or “Quantitative Easing 2.” This seems to keep the dollar low relative to other currencies, thus allowing commodities prices to remain high. QE2 is scheduled to end June 30, or earlier. If it is allowed to expire, it would seem as though interest rates could rise materially (because QE2 also keeps interest rates low), and could lead to a rapid deterioration in the financial condition of the United States. If this should happen, it would seem as though the United States could be one of the countries that enters recession and significantly decreases its demand for oil. Of course, high oil price by itself may lead to this outcome quite soon, also. 

We cannot know how all of these forces will play out. Generally, I would expect that there will continue to be an upward push on the price for oil because of rising extraction costs, and because unrest in the Middle East is causing countries to provide additional benefits for their citizens, further raising their costs (estimated to be $95 barrel by the Wall Street Journal). As long as the world economy is expanding, rising demand will also tend to pull oil prices upward, because many countries are trying to compete for a supply of oil that is barely growing. 

The various countries around the world can be expected to be in differing positions with respect to their ability to pay high oil prices. Gradually (or not so gradually), the weakest ones will be pushed away from buying oil, either because of debt defaults and shunning by exporters (unless they have goods to trade in return), or because of recession, or both. World oil production seems likely to decline as the number of countries that can afford to continue to purchase high-priced oil declines. Ultimately, oil consumption can be expected to drop to close to 0, because no country will be able to afford to buy very much oil at a high price, and because oil companies will not be able to maintain necessary infrastructure for a very limited supply of oil. 

I don’t think that we can expect an analysis of the theoretical capacity of future world oil production to tell very much of the peak oil story. We really don’t know how much of the oil which seems to be available will actually be produced. A lot of the story will depend on the ability of individual countries to keep their economies in good enough shape that they can afford to buy high-priced oil. Many residents of countries that are shut out from oil supply are likely to find that oil products are not available at any price. 

Originally published on Our Finite World.

 

BOOMERS – YOUR CRISIS HAS ARRIVED (Oldie but Goodie)

I wrote this article at the depths of the economic downturn in February 2009. The stock market was in freefall and bottomed in March 2009, down 50% from its high. Obama had just assumed power. Oil was selling at $40 per barrel. I made a number of predictions. You can judge how well I did. I took a few shots at Boomers, but I was pretty easy on them. Anyone left on the site who doesn’t understand the Fourth Turning theory, will get a good education at the beginning of the article.

“There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations, much is given. Of other generations, much is expected. This Generation has a rendezvous with destiny.”  Franklin Roosevelt – 1936

President Roosevelt was correct. The generation he was speaking to was already dealing with the worst financial crisis in the history of the United States, the Great Depression. By 1945, over 400,000 of this generation had lost their lives. Another 600,000 men were wounded. Much was expected and much was sacrificed. Every generation has a rendezvous with destiny. The generation that won World War II passed the ultimate test and proceeded to produce the next generation, the Baby Boom Generation. Their rendezvous with destiny is underway. Will it be a rendezvous with history that results in World War III, the collapse of the Great American Republic, dictatorship, or a return to the original Constitutional principles upon which this country was founded? Many of you are probably thinking the idea of WW III, collapse or dictatorship is crazy. I’d respond with the wisdom of Kramer from the classic Seinfeld show.

Jerry:             “Oh you’re crazy”

Kramer:         “Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?”

Jerry:             “It’s impossible”

Kramer:         “Is it? Or is it so possible your head is spinning like a top?”

Jerry:             “It can’t be”

Kramer:         “Can’t it? Or is your entire world just crashing down all around you?”

As a student of history I’m drawn to the concept of cycles. It is comforting to think that history has recurring patterns and a natural rhythm. Trying to figure out why the major events in history occurred is complex, challenging and fascinating. When I read an updated 1997 article by Doug Casey in December on John Mauldin’s site called Foundations of Crisis, I was blown away. Mr. Casey had read the book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe and made some forecasts of what would happen in the next few years. They were eerily accurate, including an airliner being purposefully crashed into a government building to trigger a crisis. After reading this article I’ve been trying to wrap my arms around the implications of their theory and the possible consequences for the United States. I know that an individual can learn from the past. I’ve always thought that poet George Santayana’s quote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”, is profound and worth studying.

The crucial issue is whether societies as a whole are capable of learning from the past or are they condemned to the inevitable cycle of history. Can an individual change the course of history? Was World War II inevitable, even if Adolph Hitler had been killed during World War I? Is there anything that can be done to avert the cyclical crisis that seems to arrive on a consistent basis throughout history? Is our destiny already preordained? Mr. Strauss and Mr. Howe wrote the following words in 1997:

Based on historical patterns, America will hit a once-in-a-century national crisis within the decade…’like winter,’ the crisis or ‘fourth turning’ cannot be averted. It will last 20 years or so and bring hardship and upheavals similar to previous fourth turnings, such as the American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression and World War II. The fourth turning is a perilous time because the result could be a new ‘golden age’ for America or the beginning of the end. It all will begin with a ‘sudden spark’ that catalyzes a crisis mood around the year 2005.

I don’t have a preconceived notion of our country’s destiny, but I’m getting a bad feeling about the track we are on. The last thing in the world I want to see is my three boys being forced into a war caused by a bunch of clueless 60 year old political hack morons in Washington DC fulfilling their destiny to cause the once in a century national crisis. Based on the foolish actions of most politicians in Washington over the last thirty years, I fear for the future of our country. I don’t think the politicians in Washington comprehend the state of affairs. I sense the mood of the country turning. Fear, anger and disillusionment are the prevalent themes. Change is coming, but it is not the change that Barack Obama campaigned for. It will be forced upon us by circumstances beyond any one person’s control. While we are hurtling towards our summit with destiny, Congress continues its path of pork barrel spending, short term solutions, party politics, and condemning our children and grandchildren to a lower standard of living. The “leaders” of this country are using the tried and true method of using fear to ram through their $900 billion tax on future generations. President Bush used the same fear tactics to launch his invasion of Iraq. I see a similar success story with the coming stimulus package. Maybe the coming crisis will ultimately lead to Great Leaders rising to the occasion.

THE FOURTH TURNING

Strauss and Howe believe that history is marked by 80 to 100 year cycles which match the lifespan of most human beings. These cycles are discernible by four generations of 20 to 25 years that show remarkable consistency over history. I’m sure this theory will anger the individualists out there. They are not saying that everyone within a generation acts alike, but are shaped by joint experiences and time period in history. According to Strauss and Howe:

Turnings last about 20 years and always arrive in the same order. Four of them make up the cycle of history, which is about the length of a long human life. The first turning is a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order becomes established after the old has been dismantled. Next comes an Awakening, a time of rebellion against the now-established order, when spiritual exploration becomes the norm. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era of strong individualism that surmounts increasingly fragmented institutions. Last comes the Fourth Turning, an era of upheaval, a Crisis in which society redefines its very nature and purpose.

They are able to trace these turnings back to 1500 with remarkable consistency. They have broken U.S. history into the following cycles of history: Revolutionary Cycle (1701-1791), Civil War Cycle (1792-1859), Great Power Cycle (1860-1942), and the Millennial Cycle (1943-2???). Within these cycles are four distinct generations, that have a consistent persona because their parents had similar views, they listened to the same music, read the same books, were taught the same curriculum, were bombarded with the same marketing messages, and experienced the same set of unique experiences. Even though every Baby Boomer is not alike, the sheer size of this generation of 76 million people has left a dramatic imprint on history. The shared experiences of this cohort are clearly visible as they have marched through the cycle of history. The four typical generations within a cycle as described by Strauss and Howe are:

Prophet/Idealist

A Prophet (or Idealist) generation is born during a High, spends its rising adult years during an Awakening, spends midlife during an Unraveling, and spends old age in a Crisis. Prophetic leaders have been cerebral and principled, summoners of human sacrifice, wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform. Late in life, most prophets come to be revered as much for their words as for their deeds.

Nomad/Reactive

A Nomad (or Reactive) generation is born during an Awakening, spends its rising adult years during an Unraveling, spends midlife during a Crisis, and spends old age in a new High. Nomadic leaders have been cunning, hard-to-fool realists, taciturn warriors who prefer to meet problems and adversaries one-on-one.

Hero/Civic

A Hero (or Civic) generation is born during an Unraveling, spends its rising adult years during a Crisis, spends midlife during a High, and spends old age in an Awakening. Heroic leaders are considered to have been vigorous and rational institution-builders, busy and competent in old age. All of them entering midlife were aggressive advocates of technological progress, economic prosperity, social harmony, and public optimism.

Artist/Adaptive

An Artist (or Adaptive) generation is born during a Crisis, spends its rising adult years in a new High, spends midlife in an Awakening, and spends old age in an Unraveling. Artistic leaders have been advocates of fairness and the politics of inclusion, irrepressible in the wake of failure.

This concept of 100 year cycles consisting of four generations is very logical to me. It all seems so theoretical and quaint until you realize that if they are right, we have just entered The Fourth Turning, a period of upheaval, crisis and enormous societal and possibly worldwide change. This is not a normal cyclical recession and bear market. There are much larger forces at work. Washington politicians are so consumed with their short-term election politics, power plays, enrichment of supporters, and letting lobbyists write our laws, they are incapable of seeing the real gathering storm that is about to engulf them. They go about their day to day horse trading and fooling the public with rhetoric, while a crisis of epic proportions is looming just over the horizon.

100 YEARS TO LIVE

The recent song by the group Five for Fighting called 100 Years reflects the 100 year cycle that all humans live through.

15 there’s still time for you
Time to buy and time to lose
15, there’s never a wish better than this
When you only got 100 years to live
I’m 33 for a moment
Still the man, but you see I’m a they
A kid on the way
A family on my mind
I’m 45 for a moment
The sea is high
And I’m heading into a crisis
Chasing the years of my life

The lyrics heading into a crisis couldn’t be truer today. We are only on this earth for 100 years. Why shouldn’t every person want to leave the earth a better place than they were born into? Instead, the world has periods of advancement and periods of regression, periods of peace and periods of war, periods of awakening and periods of crisis.

The last 150 years in American history as segmented by Strauss and Howe is charted below. Each generation experiences the four turnings at a different time in their lives. An appreciation of past turnings may give us clues to what will befall our country in the next 20 years.

Great Power Saeculum
Missionary Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1860–1882 The indulged home-and-hearth children of the post-Civil War era. They came of age as labor anarchists, and campus rioters. In the 1930s and ‘40s, their elder elite became the “Wise Old Men” who enacted a “New Deal” (and Social Security) for the benefit of youth, led the global war against fascism, and reaffirmed America’s highest ideals during a transformative era in world history.
Lost Generation Nomad (Reactive) 1883–1900 The Third Great Awakening was a period of religious activism in American history from the late 1850s to the 1900s. It affected pietistic Protestant denominations and had a strong sense of social activism. It gathered strength from the postmillennial theology that the Second Coming of Christ would come after mankind had reformed the entire earth.
G.I. Generation (aka Greatest Generation) Hero (Civic) 1901–1924 As young adults, their uniformed corps patiently endured depression and heroically conquered foreign enemies. In a midlife subsidized by the G.I. Bill, they built gleaming suburbs, invented miracle vaccines, plugged “missile gaps,” and launched moon rockets.
Silent Generation Artist (Adaptive) 1925–1942 Grew up as the suffocated children of war and depression. They came of age just too late to be war heroes and just too early to be youthful free spirits. Instead, this early-marrying Lonely Crowd became the risk-averse technicians and professionals—as well as the sensitive rock ‘n rollers and civil-rights advocates—of a post-crisis era in which conformity seemed to be a sure ticket to success.
Millennial Saeculum
Baby Boom Generation Prophet (Idealist) 1943–1960 Basked as children in Dr. Spock permissiveness, suburban conformism, Sputnik-era schooling, Beaver Cleaver friendliness, and Father Knows Best family order. They came of age rebelling against the worldly blueprints of their parents. Youth pathologies worsened—and SAT scores began a 17-year slide. In the early 1980s, many young adults became self-absorbed “yuppies” with mainstream careers but perfectionist lifestyles. Entering midlife (and national power), they are trumpeting values, touting a “politics of meaning,” and waging scorched-earth Culture Wars.
13th Generation (aka Generation X) Nomad (Reactive) 1961–1981 Survived a “hurried” childhood of divorce, latchkeys, open classrooms, devil-child movies, and a shift from G to R ratings. They came of age curtailing the earlier rise in youth crime and fall in test scores—yet heard themselves denounced as so wild and stupid as to put The Nation At Risk. In jobs, they embrace risk and prefer free agency over loyal corporatism. Politically, they lean toward pragmatism and non-affiliation, and would rather volunteer than vote.
Millennial Generation Hero (Civic) 1982–200? As abortion and divorce rates ebbed, the popular culture began stigmatizing hands-off parental styles and recasting babies as special. Child abuse and child safety became hot topics, while books teaching virtues and values became best-sellers. Today, politicians define adult issues (from tax cuts to deficits) in terms of their effects on children.
New Silent Generation Artist (Adaptive) 200?– This generation is the first to be born in a digital world and is currently in grade school. This new generation is being molded from the outset to be unique, with a focus on advanced second-hand interactive learning techniques. The result being Gen Z children are exposed to an environment that is heavy on stimuli, and weaker in interpersonal relationships.

Sources: Wikipedia & The Fourth Turning

THE FIRST TURNING – THE HIGH (Spring)

The American High in the 20th century began in1946 with unconditional victory in World War II. According to Strauss and Howe:

A HIGH brings a renaissance to community life. With the new civic order in place, people want to put the Crisis behind them and feel content about what they have collectively achieved. Any social issues left unresolved by the Crisis must now remain so. The need for dutiful sacrifice has ebbed, yet the society continues to demand order and consensus. The recent fear for group survival transmutes into a desire for investment, growth, and strength–which in turn produces an era of commercial prosperity, institutional solidarity, and political stability. The big public arguments are over means, not ends.

The mood of the country after World War II was joyous. America was left as the sole global power. Its industrial power was unsurpassed. Europe, Japan and the Soviet Union lay in shambles. The country settled into a period of prosperity and conformity. America was brimming with confidence.

We were confident that our democratic principles could be spread throughout the world. The American High lasted from the Truman presidency through the Kennedy presidency. As the youthful President Kennedy took office in 1961, anything was possible. We could put a man on the moon, defeat communism, and eradicate poverty. The symbol of this period would be the Disney World ride Carousel of Progress, a sterile world inhabited by animatronic people. This time period also gave life to the Baby Boom Generation. Their mouseketeers ears and Leave it to Beaver lives of the 1950’s were brought to an abrupt confidence shattering end with the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963.

THE SECOND TURNING – THE AWAKENING (Summer)

The Fourth Awakening of the great American Republic began in 1964. This episode is known as the Conscious Revolution. Strauss and Howe describe these phases in history:

An AWAKENING arrives with a dramatic challenge against the High’s assumptions about benevolent reason and congenial institutions. The outer world now feels trivial compared to the inner world. New spiritual agendas and social ideals burst forth, along with utopian experiments seeking to reconcile total fellowship with total autonomy. The prosperity and security of a High are overtly disdained though covertly taken for granted. A society searches for soul over science, meanings over things. Youth-fired attacks break out against the established institutional order. As these attacks take their toll, society has difficulty coalescing around common goals. People stop believing that social progress requires social discipline. Public order deteriorates, and crime and substance abuse rise. 

The upheaval of the 1960’s took the country by surprise. The Vietnam War, assassination of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King, campus riots, Kent State massacre, drug use, and promiscuous sex marked a vivid departure from the High. The older establishment was outraged by the personal liberation youth culture. Baby Boomers rebelled against everything their parents stood for. The Cultural Revolution was shocking to the older generation. Previous Awakenings in U.S. History were religiously based. The 1960’s and 1970’s were a tumultuous period that tore the fabric of American life apart. Instead of being led by mainstream religions, this Awakening was led by a Baby Boom generation that had been coddled and spoiled by their parents. Instead of turning to religion, they turned to self actualization. They became the self absorbed “Me Generation”.

The New Age teenage hippies of the 1960’s grew into selfish adults, more concerned by their professional careers, obtaining a Harvard MBA, acquiring the biggest McMansion, and graduating from a 200 Series BMW to a 300 Series BMW. As the country moved out of the 1970’s into a new era, individualism and ego enrichment became the dominant themes. The end of this Awakening period in 1984 was marked by the classification of the then 25 to 35 year old Baby Boom Generation as Yuppies. Young upwardly mobile professionals were characterized accurately in the movie The Big Chill, the novel Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe and the TV show Thirtysomething. These were not flattering portrayals.

THE THIRD TURNING – THE UNRAVELING (Fall)

The latest Unraveling period in U.S. history began during the presidency of Ronald Reagan. His theme of “Morning in America” convinced most of the country that a new era of prosperity would lead to all boats rising. Strauss and Howe describe the traits during these periods:

An UNRAVELING begins as a society-wide embrace of the liberating cultural forces set loose by the Awakening. People have had their fill of spiritual rebirth, moral protest, and lifestyle experimentation. Content with what they have become individually, they vigorously assert an ethos of pragmatism, self-reliance, laissez faire, and national (or sectional or ethnic) chauvinism. While personal satisfaction is high, public trust ebbs amid a fragmenting culture, harsh debates over values, and weakening civic habits. The sense of guilt (which rewards principle and individuality) reaches its zenith. As moral debates brew, the big public arguments are over ends, not means. Decisive public action becomes very difficult, as community problems are deferred. Eventually, cynical alienation hardens into a brooding pessimism. The approaching specter of public disaster ultimately elicits a mix of paralysis and apathy.

The period between 1984 and 2001 was a period of peace and prosperity. President Reagan cut taxes, Paul Volcker defeated inflation, the Soviet Union collapsed, the stock market went up 1,000%, and MBA yuppies elevated to senior management positions on Wall Street. This interlude echoed the High of 1946 to 1964. The self involved Baby Boom Generation kept busy accumulating stuff. Their personal satisfaction is what mattered most. Gordon Gekko, the John Thain of his generation, uttered the words in the movie Wall Street that reflect the mood of the 1980’s. “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good.”

The 1990’s were dominated by cultural wars. The Republican Party and Democratic Party debate become extremely partisan. Public deliberations became harsh. Moral certitude was exuded by all sides of every issue. Hard driving overachieving narcissistic yuppies wearing Brooks Brothers suits and Rolex watches dominated corporate America. As twenty-eight-year-old Rob Lewis, a yuppie profiled in Newsweek, noted, yuppies were often willing to sacrifice “marriage, families, free time, relaxation.” He added, “Our marriages seem like mergers, our divorces like divestitures.”

The internet was going to change the world. Fraudulent IPOs were rolled out to the unsuspecting public. Day traders could get rich without working. Government did what it does best, spend money and defer all tough decisions to the distant future. A tough unpopular decision deferred is the path to reelection for a professional politician. The unwillingness to work together towards solutions that would insure that future generations weren’t left with the debts of the Baby Boom Generation, led to the current crisis being worse than it needed to be. As yuppies dashed down the streets of New York City, beating away on their crack-berries, on a sunny cool Fall morning, little did they know that their materialistic egotistical frenzied lives were about to change forever. With the tragic murder of 3,000 Americans in the Saudi led terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Fourth Turning had arrived.

THE FOURTH TURNING – THE CRISIS (Winter)

We know how this Crisis period in our history began. We don’t know how it will end. Previous crisis periods in American history included The American Revolution (1773-1794), The Civil War (1860-1865), and the twin crisis of The Great Depression and World War II (1929-1945). All three period included wrenching highly destructive total wars. Will our current crisis period result in World War III?

Strauss and Howe describe the commonalities of most crisis periods:

A CRISIS arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice. People support new efforts to wield public authority, whose perceived successes soon justify more of the same. Government governs, community obstacles are removed, and laws and customs that resisted change for decades are swiftly shunted aside. A grim preoccupation with civic peril causes spiritual curiosity to decline. Public order tightens, private risk-taking abates, and crime and substance abuse decline. Families strengthen, gender distinctions widen, and child-rearing reaches a smothering degree of protection and structure. The young focus their energy on worldly achievements, leaving values in the hands of the old. Wars are fought with fury and for maximum result. 

Every crisis period has been initiated by a catalyst. The passage of the Stamp Acts started the American Revolution, the election of Abraham Lincoln sparked the Civil War and the Stock Market Crash of 1929 initiated the Depression/WW II crisis. If history is our guide, the Iraq and Afghan Wars will not be the only wars during this crisis epoch. Many challenges lie ahead. I don’t think the majority of Americans are ready to meet these challenges.

Winter Has Arrived

Strauss & Howe wrote the following words in 1997:

America feels like it’s unraveling. Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within. The America of today feels worse, in its fundamentals, than the one many of us remember from youth, a society presided over by those of supposedly lesser consciousness. We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment.

The Prophet Generation is the elder statesmen as we begin this secular crisis. George W. Bush was born in 1946. He is the eldest of the Prophet/Baby Boom Generation. Barack Obama was born in 1961 at the very end of the Baby Boom Generation. These two men have or will lead the United States through most of this crisis stage. George Bush and his cohort of neo-conservatives and their drastic overreaction to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, have set the stage for the most dangerous crisis in U.S. history. A Crisis always results in the appearance of strong leaders. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt rose to the occasion during our previous Crisis episodes. Strong does not always mean wise, thoughtful or right. George Bush exhibited strong leadership during his tenure. Wisdom and thoughtfulness were not two of his better traits. Barack Obama is a smart man and has exhibited some strong leadership skills in his initial weeks in office. He has also exhibited an ability to exaggerate threats to get what he wants. Will he rise to the level of Washington, Lincoln or Roosevelt?

On the day George Bush took office, he inherited an annual budget surplus that was the result of gridlock in Washington and PAYGO restrictions on Congressional spending. The National Debt stood at $5.7 trillion and our unfunded future liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid stood at $20 trillion. We had not been at war for nine years. Today, our National Debt is $10.7 trillion, poised to rocket above $13 trillion in the next year. Our unfunded liabilities now total $53 trillion as President Bush signed a prescription benefit plan expansion that added $8 trillion to our grandchildren’s burden. Since 9/11 almost 5,000 Americans have died in battle, with 50,000 Americans wounded. We’ve spent $800 billion, so far, on a war that didn’t need to be fought. Untold thousands of Iraqi and Afghan civilians have been killed or wounded, despite the fact that none of the 9/11 terrorists were from Iraq or Afghanistan. Fifteen of the nineteen hijackers were from our “staunch ally”, Saudi Arabia. The acts of a terrorist organization consisting of less than 2,000 members resulted in actions by an American President that resulted in declining American moral influence throughout the world, increased terrorism around the world, budget deficits that threaten the very existence of our capitalistic system, and an American public that is angry, disillusioned and confused. Doug Casey in 1997 described the future actions of George Bush to a tee. “The Boomers in Elderhood will be dogmatic, harsh, puritanical, and quite willing to burn down the barn in order to destroy whatever rats they see.”

Domestically, the period from 2001 to 2008 could be described as “Boomers Gone Wild”. Boomers in their 40’s and 50’s now dominate society, as they have assumed the positions of power in government and business. Based on what they have accomplished so far, I truly fear for what comes next. After 9/11, President Bush urged Americans to spend to defeat terrorism, while Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to historically low levels. This was like waving a red cape in front of a bull. The materialistic, self actualizing, individualistic Boomers went on the grandest borrowing and spending spree in the history of the world. Their mission: Save the world from terrorism by buying a 6,000 sq ft McMansion, the largest HDTV, the biggest Hummer, and most expensive Rolex. Boomers running Wall Street were happy to oblige with loans and complex derivatives to finance the Mardi Gras like celebration of capitalism.

The aftermath of the eight years of partying is, not surprisingly to some, the greatest hangover in the history of the world. There are 19 million vacant homes, 10% of all homes in the U.S. are in foreclosure, 20 million homeowners are underwater with their mortgage, $30 trillion of consumer wealth has be obliterated, the savings rate dropped below zero, consumer debt levels are at historic levels, and the banking system is insolvent. The Boomer economists, like Paul Krugman, are sure they have the answers (they don’t) and the current bank bailout tab has already reached $9.7 trillion. You have to hand it to Americans, we truly believe bigger is better. If this is the easy part of the twenty year crisis, I’m not looking forward to the hard part.

Winter of Our Discontent

We enter 2009 and the Presidency of Barack Obama with citizens pessimistic about the future of our country. The public has lost faith in government, financial institutions, and religious institutions. Distrust of politicians, bankers, CEO’s, financial advisors, and moral leadership is well founded. The popular culture of over hyping public figures and then tearing them down has led to everyone and everything being discredited. The personal and public choices that will be required in the next few years will be harsh. Moral courage and leadership is what is needed. As I watch the likes of Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity work their rhetorical magic, it is clear that we have a major deficit in wisdom, courage and leadership. Instead of analyzing how we got here and how we want the country to be in ten years, when this crisis has past, we are focused only on specific right wing or left wing agendas and how to position ourselves for the next election cycle. The short sightedness of our current leadership will lead to the next more dangerous phase of this crisis.

Congress will pass a stimulus bill with wave pools, Frisbee golf courses, digital TV coupons, tax incentives to borrow money and buy houses and cars, and billions more of pork in the next week. The bill is being sold as an infrastructure bill despite the fact that only 5% of the bill is for infrastructure. President Obama will sign it. The second helping of TARP will be dished out to banks, insurance companies, automakers, and people who bought more house than they could afford. It is tough to predict what will happen in the next week, let alone the next decade. Here is my best guess:

  1. The stimulus bill will grow to $900 billion (this is how Senators & Representatives compromise) and be passed on party lines, with virtual Democratic Senators Specter and Collins showing their true colors and providing the deciding votes. President Obama will use fear tactics, convincing the non-thinkers that inhabit most of America that not passing this bloated pig of a bill will result in a permanent Depression. I’d love to find out which economists told him this would happen. Every dime of this stimulus package will be borrowed from foreign countries and be paid for by increased taxes on future generations. An unfunded tax decrease or spending increase is a tax increase for our children and grandchildren.
  2. Timothy Geithner, our TurboTax expert Treasury Secretary, will introduce the sixth variation of the TARP program since we were told it had to be done to save the world from collapse. It will not do what needs to be done. Smoke and mirrors will not pay off debt. The bankrupt financial institutions and corporations (Citigroup, Bank of America, General Motors, Chrysler) must be put into receivership and their shareholders wiped out. Good banks should take over from bad banks. Corporations with sound management and viable business plans should prosper. Corporations that sell every product at a loss, financed by its subsidiary at a further loss, must go out of business.
  3. We are in the midst of a Global recession. Every country in the world is decreasing their interest rates, trying to devalue their currency, protecting domestic businesses, and subsidizing domestic employment. Every politician on the planet is playing to their constituents with protectionist rhetoric and actions. There are Buy American clauses in the stimulus package. French President Sarkozy has been ratcheting up protectionist ideas. Calling your biggest lender a currency manipulator months before you will need to borrow an additional $2 trillion is probably not a bright idea. Our new Treasury Secretary did just that last week. Protectionist measures will lead to retaliation and a worsening global economy.
  4. The Federal Reserve has doubled their balance sheet in the last year. They’ve done this by printing $1 trillion. They will double their balance sheet again if that is what it takes to generate inflation. They have bought toxic assets from banks but will not reveal the banks or assets they’ve bought, to the public. They work for taxpayers, not vice versa. Pundits on CNBC casually say that the Fed can just print money and everything will be OK. Their words prove that the Federal Reserve System is just the BIGGEST PONZI SCHEME ever perpetrated on the U.S. public by bankers in conspiracy with government. The Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke did not see this crisis coming. He thought we had a strong housing market, when any impartial observer, such as Robert Shiller, proved that we were three standard deviations too high. Mr. Bernanke will succeed in igniting inflation. He will not see it coming and as a political animal, will not pull the punch bowl away before the party gets going. Inflation will get out of control within three years.
  5. The annual deficit for 2009 will exceed $2 trillion. The government bean counters haven’t realized that people without jobs don’t pay taxes and companies with no profits don’t pay taxes. When you bring in less tax income, increase spending, and send out tax rebates to all Americans, deficits tend to rise. In the next two years the National Debt will exceed $15 trillion. GDP is headed in the opposite direction and will drop below $14 trillion in 2009. At this rate of increase, we’ll be approaching the debt to GDP ratio of 120% reached during WW II by the end of the Obama Presidency. This increase in debt combined with the enormous printing of dollars by the Federal Reserve will drive the value of the dollar down. The only question is whether it will go down slowly or violently.
  6. The U.S. has been dependent on Japan, China, and the Oil exporting countries to purchase our debt in the last ten years. Japan has entered recession and will need to stimulate their economy. Social unrest is growing as factories shut down in China. The government has begun domestic stimulus programs and will need more. Oil revenues have dropped 70% in the last year for the oil exporting countries. With their own domestic issues and U.S. Treasuries yielding 3% to 3.5% and U.S. annual funding needs of $2 trillion, demand is likely to wane. The only possibility is dramatically higher rates. High interest rates devastate a heavily indebted country.
  7. Oil prices below $40 a barrel will lead to a deepening of this crisis in the not too distant future. At these prices it is no longer profitable to develop alternative fuels and search for new supply. Rigs are being shutdown, deepwater projects cancelled, shale and oil sands projects being delayed, and natural gas exploration dramatically scaled back. The fact remains that the world has reached peak oil supply. The Saudi wells are 50 years old and are depleting rapidly. Mexico’s Cantarall oil field is in rapid decline and Mexico, the supplier of 12% of U.S. supply, will become a net importer in five years. The drastic decline in oil revenue will further exacerbate social unrest in a country on our border. The complete lack of a comprehensive energy plan will result in oil prices exceeding $200 a barrel in the next five years. Politicians will blame oil companies and the Arab countries, further alienating us from the world.
  8. The Military Industrial Complex will grow stronger. We have no intentions of leaving Iraq and we will double our presence in Afghanistan. The Defense (should be called Offense) budget will increase. We will be told that the Russian threat is growing. We will be told that China has aggressive intentions and that Iran threatens the Middle East. The public will go along because they don’t think for themselves. We will be told that the Defense industry generates American jobs. As the government identifies false threats, they will take away more rights and liberties in the name of protecting us. It will be gradual and almost unnoticeable to the Average American, but it is happening. A stronger more powerful Military will want to prove itself. They will be itching for action. When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
  9. Boomer leaders are always sure, and often wrong. They are dogmatic and cocky. They utter the words catastrophe, without specifying what will happen if you don’t follow their plan. They say that we will enter a permanent decline if we don’t spend our way out of a situation that was caused by spending too much. Boomer followers are so shallow and self involved that they will put reason aside and believe that we can spend our way out of this. The easy sound bite solution is what they are looking for. The word sacrifice does not exist in their vocabulary. The well being of future generations is of no interest to them. The day trading, house flipping, BMW driving Boomers are looking for the next big thing. The danger is that the next big thing could be a major war. They are too old to fight, but they are not too old to send others to their death.
  10. The stimulus package and TARP 6 plan will be implemented. The economy will not improve. By the Fall, Obama and the Democratic led Congress will push through trillions more in spending. The dollar will continue to fall versus gold. As the deficits grow and foreigners buy less and less of our debt, interest rates will rise. Oil will gradually rise as long as no external event causes it to spike. Protectionism will increase, leading to declining world trade. When we have not pulled out of this downturn in 2010, people will realize we are in a Depression and politicians have lied to them again. Social unrest will grow. Riots are likely to break out in poor urban areas. Governments always react to internal strife by seeking an external threat.
  11. The external threat could be anything. Russia could invade Ukraine. Israel could attack Iran. When oil reaches $200 a barrel, disputes over drilling rights in the Arctic with Russia or China could cause a confrontation. Oil is the lifeblood of our society. If major shortages occur in the U.S. it would bring the country to a grinding halt. The panic would be so drastic that our Leaders will use every means at their disposal to get more oil. With the most powerful military on the planet at their disposal, and itching for a fight, our Leaders will manufacture a reason to go to war in order to secure oil supplies. The problem with waging a major war is that you need troops to sacrifice. The volunteer army will not do. When the government tries to reinstitute the draft, the fabric of this country will be torn to shreds. This will be where I get off this merry-go-round ride.
  12. In ten years my sons will be 25, 22, and 20. They will not be sacrificing their lives for oil, bankers, corrupt politicians, and Defense industry CEOs. If I see the future developing as I fear, I will move my family out of this country to a place where individual liberties are respected, sound fiscal policy is practiced, and people can live in peace. I don’t know if that place exists, but I’ll be looking.

The good news is that every modern Crisis has been followed by a new High. Of course, in every modern U.S. Crisis we had a strong leader. Will Barack Obama be that strong leader? If no strong wise leader emerges, could we follow the path of the Roman Empire? Can we as individuals change the course of history? I don’t know the answers to these questions. It is up to each of us to analyze the facts and act accordingly. A recent song by The Fray, You Found Me, asks the question we will all need to answer.

Where were you?

When everything was falling apart

EARTH DAY SCAM IS DANGEROUS

I wouldn’t invite Doug Casey to any Earth Day celebrations.

Doug Casey on Earth Day

April 27, 2011 2:38pm GMT

(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)

L: So, Doug, people around the world just celebrated Earth Day, and I know you have ideas on the subject. Did you ride a bike instead of driving a car that day?

Doug: Well, as you know, I love to drive high-performance cars, but I’m in downtown Buenos Aires now, and don’t have a car here because the taxis are so cheap and convenient. So I used taxis on Earth Day, just like any other day. I don’t bicycle and recycle to save the planet. But I did notice, with a sort of morbid fascination, the observation of Earth Day by many people around me.

It’s amazing to me – though maybe it shouldn’t be – the way Earth Day has caught on among idiots in general. It’s on its way to becoming just as bad news as May Day, which is the creation of the same sort of people. May Day – May 1 – is the Labor Day of most of the world, and it’s basically a Marxist holiday. April 22 is Earth Day. So you have a green Earth Day, followed by a red May Day. They ought to call this time of year “Watermelon Week,” because the so-called Greens are really watermelons: green only on the outside, but red through and through.

L: Can you substantiate that?

Doug: Apart from the fact that there’s about a 95% correlation between Reds and Greens everywhere in the world? Sure: just look at their policy proposals. Mainstream environmentalists never propose any market approaches to improving the environment; they only propose more socialist regulations and government controls. There are a few free-market environmentalists out there, but they are very few and far between. If the movement was all about the environment, there would at least be a mix of policies, constructively looking for whatever works best. But it’s not. In my opinion, concern for the environment is just the latest excuse for the same tired old collectivist/statist thinking that’s been such a disaster for the last hundred years.

Earth Day is nonsense and a bad idea. People of good will should ignore it, and work against government efforts to enshrine it.

L: Okay, but wait a minute. You know I agree that real environmentalism should be about the environment, not advancing a leftist agenda without regard for environmental consequences. But we do live on this one planet, and I don’t like breathing polluted air – and I doubt you like it any better than I do. What’s wrong with celebrating the planet we live on, as well as honest – and voluntary – efforts to keep it clean?

Doug: There’s nothing wrong with that, of course. I like green trees, blue skies, the birds and bunnies and so forth, as much as the next person. But that’s not really what’s going on here. But first, we have to put all of this in perspective…

L: What perspective would that be?

Doug: You have to realize that the earth is just a ball of dirt, circling an insignificant star, lost in an insignificant galaxy among a hundred billion other stars – and our galaxy is itself only one of a hundred billion galaxies, and maybe more, in the known universe. Further, there’s increasing conjecture that our universe is just one out of an infinite number of parallel universes, which may include any number just like ours. So on a cosmic scale, anything we do or don’t do to this planet is completely and absolutely insignificant. Making a religion out of worshiping the planet, and fomenting hysteria about it, strikes me as being cosmically stupid.

L: Literally.

Doug: Yes, literally. The earth has an evolution of its own, and is constantly in the process of changing, regardless of the activities of men – the ice ages, as one tiny example, show how drastic those changes can be. Incidentally, we’re probably just in an interim period between glaciations, from the perspective of geological time. And periodically, other things happen that make human activities pale in significance. The next super volcano, as we talked about in our conversation on global warming, will change the earth’s surface environment tremendously. But maybe the environmental extremists will like that, because it could wipe out most of the human race. And though humans evolved on this planet just like all the other species, these people have it in their heads that humans and everything to do with them is somehow unnatural.

L: Well, maybe not, because such a volcanic event would also wipe out countless entire species of plants and animals.

Doug: You’re right, but some of these people are so virulently anti-human, they might rejoice anyway, and see it as just being a few eggs you have to break to make an omelet. A big asteroid strike could do the same thing. There are plenty of other things that could sweep all these insane – and unnatural – efforts to freeze nature in its present state aside like piles of leaves in a hurricane. My attitude about all this was summed up perfectly by George Carlin in this video. It’s a work of both comic and philosophical genius. I suggest everyone watch it at least once a week, until it sinks in and is grokked in its fullness.

L: Even if there’s no such cataclysm, as you like to say, everything gets folded into the earth’s mantle eventually anyway.

Doug: [Chuckles] That’s right. That is absolutely inevitable – and natural. That should, if only for that reason, appeal to Greens, even though they’re generally innocent of any knowledge of science in general, or geology in particular. But most places won’t be folded into the mantle for many millions of years – or at all, if the sun goes nova first. Meanwhile, if you value human life – which many of these people consciously and explicitly do not – this planet is here strictly for our pleasure. At least until we can find something better.

Save the trees, saves the bees. Save the whales, save the snails…. What about people? The arrogance of these people is at once breathtaking and pitiful. And many come right out and say that they would eliminate all humans if they could, because humans are a disease on the face of Mother Earth – or Gaia, as they call it.

L: I met a young man who said exactly that, once, in Peru. I asked why termites – which destroy every other living thing in an expanding circle around their nests – are superior to humans. And he’s not the only one I’ve met. Somehow, when I suggest that if they think the earth would be better off without humans, they could start helping by removing themselves, none of them ever take action. No, no, it’s other people whose choices they do not approve of who should go first.

Doug: Yes. These are perfectly horrible people who are polluting the intellectual environment on this planet with this new religion. And it is a religion. It has almost no basis in real science, though they like to doll it up in scientific terminology. Greenism is rife with politically motivated pseudoscientific gobbledygook masquerading as scientific research. Rather like Marxism, again – and not coincidentally, in my opinion. Lots of fundamentalist Christians can’t seem to wait for the world to come to an end with the Rapture, and Yahweh only knows how many other apocalyptically scary memes. And many hardcore Muslims are at least as anti-life and fanatical. It seems that everywhere one turns there’s somebody with plans to improve the world – or improve you. Anyone with any sense should want to get off this ball of dirt populated by so many busybody lunatics, and find some place with better vibes. But I fear religion is almost a genetic impulse in mankind; I certainly prefer the company of those who lack that gene. Of course, any time you turn anything into a religion you automatically, and perhaps necessarily, require dogma. Then you get heretics. Then, religious wars.

L: Well, religion has existed for an evolutionarily significant period of time, so in spite of the religious wars and whatnot, I figure it must have some value for its believers. However, having tried to reason with a number of such environmental extremists, I’m inclined to agree with you about them. And the worst part of it is that this intellectual pollution – this Gaia religion dressed up as science – is being deliberately targeted at children, in school, in cartoons, everywhere. It’s bad enough to fill young minds with errors and faulty logic, but they are scaring children, telling them they are doomed because the evil corporations control the governments and will never stop polluting the planet until we’re all dead, and so forth.

Doug: That’s exactly why it’s important to stand up and be counted as being against things like Earth Day, in no uncertain terms. This garbage needs debunking. It’s not enough to say, “Well, it’s a good idea, but it’s misguided in application.” That’s what people said about Marxism, which they said was a nice idea meant to help poor people, when in fact it was one of the most destructive ideas ever hatched for poor people. Especially for poor people. It’s important to look these people right in the eye and tell them they are wrong and doing great harm – don’t give ‘em an inch of moral high ground.

Call a spade a spade. If they are going to talk about treating the human race as a disease and eliminating it, they are talking about mass murder – genocide. That’s the plain truth. These people are psychologically damaged, and dangerous. They should be opposed, unabashedly, and at every opportunity. But that’s the moral argument. Entirely apart from that, I despise them on a visceral level, and find their company revolting. And boring.

L: I’ve run into that argument about Marxism as well. A lot of leftist apologists will say that Marxism was a good idea – or at least a noble one, but that it was not practical, or never had a real chance, because the evil capitalists never gave it one. But it wasn’t a good idea. Marxism might work for ants, but not for humans. Leftist governments of every stripe tried very hard to implement Marxist ideas for many decades, and all we got was a body count in the tens of millions. There is nothing noble about trying to organize a society in a way that’s inconsistent with human nature – and there is such a thing as human nature.

We’re up against something very similar with this earth-worship meme going around. For the true believers, it seems to be much more about being anti-human than about being pro-clean-environment. That’s why you see all sorts of environmental proposals that pay scant heed to large and painful human costs in pursuit of the benefit of every other species on the planet.

Doug: Just so. Mother Earth doesn’t exist, and if she did you’d find her a bad-tempered bitch who couldn’t care less for the carbon-based biological units covering her skin. She’s not a conscious, thinking being. Our planet is just a ball of silicon, carbon, iron, nitrogen, and such. I can hear the Greens now. “Save the beryllium! Save the hydrogen! Don’t save the uranium! We’re not sure about saving the carbon…”

In any event the planet itself has no rights.

Incidentally, I happen to really like most other living things, and want them to live long, happy, and peaceful lives – just on general principles. And I do what I can to see that that happens. But the Greens want to turn the earth into a political issue – which is to say an issue where they can use coercion to boss around their fellow humans. Like all true believers, they suffer from either stupidity – defined as an unwitting tendency to self-destruction – or a psychological aberration.

L: Good point. Rights are a human construct, that have meaning only among people. Actually, if you observe nature, concern for other species is unnatural. To a wolf or a worm or a germ, other things are either food, or not food; threats, or not threats. Any animal, plant, or microorganism on earth – any and every living thing besides humans – will expand as fast and as far as food supply and space allow, without any regard to the consequences for other species.

Humans do consider the well-being of other species, and this is a noble thing unique to us on this planet – but it should be a matter of aesthetics, not ethics, because ethics has no meaning beyond an intelligent species like ours. Giving hikers and bears equal rights only increases the number of hikers who end up inside of bears. Giving the planet rights would make it impossible for any species, from humans to termites, to live at all; we’d never get permission to build houses or nests, because Mother Earth does not speak.

Doug: Agreed. So, even assuming you want to look at it from the perspective of Mother Earth, the only way for things to get better is to let people get wealthier. Humans are not just going to go away. Relatively few of the six billion people here will agree to drink the environmentalist extremists’ Kool-Aid. Most of the most prominent environmentalists are rich hypocrites, driving around in limos, and flying around in private jets – people like Al Gore. And, as you’ve pointed out, people are a natural part of this planet as well. That means you’ve got to find solutions that include humans and motivate them in the right way.

The fact is that the most destructive societies and individuals for the environment are the poorest ones. Rich people don’t generally throw trash on the ground – many poor people do it all the time. The amount of trash blowing in the wind is one obvious way you can see whether a neighborhood is rich or not. The same thing applies to entire societies. From Canada to China, from Germany to Guatemala, the higher the per-capita GDP of any society, the less polluted the country. Poor people are not bad, they just don’t have time to care about such niceties – they are struggling to survive. Wealthier people have the time and the means to clean up their environments, so they do.

L: I see this all the time, as I travel the world looking for potentially profitable mining projects. To me, it seems to be clear evidence for your watermelon hypothesis that so-called environmentalists often accept “artisan” miners – generally poor indigenous people – but go apoplectic at the mention of an international mining company. But these evil companies have to live up to international standards of environmental protection, remediation, and reclamation – and, with a few criminal exceptions, they do. They often go above and beyond the legal requirements, because the people working for the companies actually do care and don’t want to dump toxic substances into rivers, etc.

But the artisan miners, they are worse than termites. They strip all the vegetation in the area for fuel or building material; they dig without regard for worker safety; they use cyanide and mercury to process gold and dump the residues in the creeks and rivers; and they make no effort whatsoever to protect the environment they work in, remedy any harm they do, or reclaim their work sites to a more natural state when they are done. But somehow, this is better to environmental extremists than letting an evil multinational company put a clean, modern mine in.

Doug: It’s true, I’ve seen it too – like that time we went to Bolivia and saw little boys working in the artisan mining camps… In a wealthier society, that wouldn’t happen. Not because of laws, but because kids don’t need to do it just in order to survive. And how do you make a society wealthier? Cut taxes, repeal regulations, and get the government out of the way of entrepreneurs. In short, you don’t actually have to do anything. Just let people create wealth and keep what they create. That will mend more harm than anything else, over time.

L: Okay, so wealth is a great antidote to environmental poison; what else?

Doug: Technology. Pollution can be defined as a waste of resources. It is an economic phenomenon, and lends itself to economic solutions. The more modern and high-tech the industry, the less pollution there tends to be. Looking ahead, micro-manufacturing will eliminate the great industrial slag heaps of the past. Ultimately, when practical nanotechnology arrives, there will be no pollution, because things will be assembled one atom at a time, precisely and with no waste. And anything that does get discarded, or becomes trash, is just more atoms someone can use as raw material for making something new. If you love the earth, but don’t hate humans, there is only one way forward: push for the fastest advance in technology possible.

L: Makes sense to me… anything else people can do, if they want a cleaner environment?

Doug: Embrace reason. So much of what people believe about the environment simply ain’t so, and most of it is pure hysteria – or outright scams. Global warming, as we’ve discussed in the past, is certainly a gigantic scam.

Incidentally, one of the worst things about the global warming scare is its effect on science. After it has been thoroughly debunked – which I’m confident will happen, and sooner rather than later – it may actually serve to discredit science itself. That’s because most people believe the lie that science has shown that anthropogenic global warming is real. I fear people will come to regard scientists as unreliable, and throw the baby out with the bath water.

But there are lots of other nasty aspects of the ongoing Green hysteria. A big one is how it actually wastes resources, even while it’s telling people to conserve them. For instance, the mandate for so-called “green jobs.” Or the drive for biofuels, which is moving a lot of corn production from food to fuel, which is raising food prices, destroying capital, and increasing hunger around the world. Carbon! Carbon, one of the basic elements in all living things, has become an environmental bogeyman. Children are being taught to feel guilty about their “carbon footprints.” All of these things misallocate resources, which is destructive of wealth.

L: I’ve seen that too. Okay, what about investment implications?

Doug: Well, even though I advocate resisting this eco-religion whenever and however possible, I do recognize its arrival as a fait accompli. I recognize that I’m swimming against the tide, just as I am with my libertarian social, political, and economic views. But, frankly, I don’t give a damn. I believe in doing the right thing. Also, I find it diverting and amusing.

Be that as it may, greenism has been codified into law in many ways already. This creates distortions, which are necessary for profitable speculation. One of these is the emphasis on green energy – there is big, big money involved in that, and it’s something readers of our Casey Energy Report are positioned to take advantage of.

L: Anything else?

Doug: Technology again. There will be research money poured in to green technologies, including forms of solar and wind power that are currently uneconomic, but may not be in the future. This is the sort of thing we like to look out for in our Casey Extraordinary Technology newsletter.

L: And, of course, I need to watch out for changes in environmental regulations as they affect mining for metals. It’s an industry people love to hate, without realizing just how much metal they use every day in their lives. That means that if you don’t want to lose your shirt investing in metals projects – even good ones – you have to watch out for political risk.

Doug: Indeed. Without metals, 100% of which are brutally extracted from Mother Earth, we would all be using stone tools and dressed in animal skins. More important, those metals will enable us to reach out for the stars. And provide us with the wealth to do so.

L: You are an optimist. Okay then. I’ll see you at our conference in Boca Raton shortly – I’m sure we’ll find more to converse about then.

Doug: I’m sure we will. Next week then.

ENERGY RETURN ON ENERGY INVESTED (EROEI)

Yesterday the Chief Propagandist of the country, Barrack Hussein Obama, provided Americans with an example of his wisdom and long-term thinking. He declared that he would unleash his rabid dogs at the Department of Justice to root out the oil speculators responsible for the increase in gas prices. Funny how he hasn’t unleashed these rabid dogs on criminal Wall Street banks. His blustering and misinformation campaign will further destroy any chance of steering this ship away from the iceberg that is peak oil. He will convince the ignorant masses that the reason oil continues to rise in price is because of BIG OIL and the dreaded SPECULATORS. Maybe he should unleash his rabid dogs on the Federal Reserve Building. Ben Bernanke is responsible for $20 of the increase.

If you want a real discussion and analysis of why prices are rising and will continue to rise over the long term, you need to go to websites that actually use facts and where people think. There is no better site than  http://www.theoildrum.com/ for solid data and facts about peak oil.

Below is an article that addresses why we are in deep deep shit when it comes to oil. Once it requires you to expend more energy than you acquire from obtaining a new energy resource, the gig is up. To put it bluntly: when it takes 1.1 barrels of oil to obtain 1.0 barrels of oil, then we’re fucked. That is the dilemma of the developed world. As this article points out, it will be far worse for the U.S. than China or India because we have a vast infrastructure to maintain.

I find it fascinating that M. King Hubbert, who predicted peak oil, was actually very optimistic about the world shifting from oil to nuclear in time to keep the world growing. Sadly, he overestimated the intelligence of politicians and the American people. We haven’t built a nuclear power plant since the 1970s and now we are going to pay a high price. The recent disaster in Japan means that the American public will not support any major effort to replace oil with nuclear.

Obama and the fools in Congress can bluster and lie and hold hearings until they are blue in the face. It is just a show. The world supply of oil has peaked. We are now on the downward slope. Take a look at the consumption charts for China and India. Anyone who doesn’t think there will be a war for oil in the near future just isn’t thinking. 

Will the decline in world oil supply be fast or slow?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on April 18, 2011 – 11:15am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: hubbert’s curve, peak oil [list all tags

An Oil Drum reader wrote, asking the following question: 

Dear Oil Drum Editors, 

I have been reading quite a bit about peak oil recently. I get the impression (not based on data) that at some point there will be a quite steep decline in oil production/supply, and therefore we will see dramatic changes in how the world runs. However, when I look at oil depletion rates and oil production declines based on the Hubbert Curve, it seems to suggest a rather smooth decline. How is that some people expect a serious energy crunch in about two or three years, then? 

Many thanks! –Curious Reader 

Below the fold is my answer to him. 

Dear Curious, 

It seems to me that 

(1) A slow decline assumes that the only issue is geological decline in oil supply, and the economy and everything else can go on as usual. Technological advances and switches to alternatives might also be expected to help keep supply up. 

(2) A fast decline can be expected if one or more adverse factors make oil supply decline faster than geological factors would suggest. These might include: 

(a) Liebig’s Law of the Minimum – some necessary element for production, such as political stability, or adequate food for the population, or adequate financial stability, is missing or 

(b) Declining Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) interferes with the functioning of society, so the society generates too little net energy, and economic problems ensue, or 

(c) Oil becomes so high priced that there is little demand for it. This would quite likely be related to declining EROEI. 

My view is that some version of the faster decline scenario is likely, because we will hit limits that interfere with oil production or oil demand. 

Let me explain my reasoning. 

Declining EROEI 

EROEI means Energy Returned on Energy Invested. It can be defined as the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource. Wikipedia says,

When the EROEI of a resource is equal to or lower than 1, that energy source becomes an “energy sink”, and can no longer be used as a primary source of energy.

 

The situation is really worse than Wikipedia suggests. An economy needs a certain level of energy just to keep its infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, medical system, etc.) repaired and working, and citizens educated. So energy resources, to really be useful, need an EROEI significantly higher than 1 to maintain the system at its current level of functioning. 

How much higher than 1.0 the EROEI needs to be on average will depend on the economy. An economy such as that of China, with relatively fewer paved roads and less expensive schools and healthcare system can probably get along with a much average lower EROEI (perhaps 4.0?) than an economy like the United States (perhaps 8.0), because of lesser infrastructure demands. 

If the average EROEI available to society is falling because oil is becoming more and more difficult to extract, an economy with a high standard of living such as the US would seem likely to be affected before an economy with a lower standard of living, such as China or India or Bangladesh, because of the higher EROEI needs of the more extensive infrastructure. Ultimately, though, the world is one economy, so problems in one country are likely to affect the economies of other countries as well. 

There a couple of issues related to declining EROEI: 

1. High cost to extract. Sources of oil or natural gas or coal that are difficult (high cost) to extract tend to be lower in EROEI than sources that are low cost to extract. So high cost of extraction tends to be a marker for low EROEI. We are increasingly running into this issue, for both oil and natural gas. 

2. Declining Net Energy. EROEI is closely related to “Net Energy,” which is the amount of usable energy that is left after deducting the energy that it takes to make energy. When net energy decreases, we have less energy to run society, making it difficult to do things like maintain bridges and roads, and fund schools. 

So high cost of oil extraction, low net energy, and low EROEI are all very closely related. 

What did M. King Hubbert Say? 

M. King Hubbert in various papers such as these (1956, 1962, 1976) talked about a world in which other fuels took over, long before fossil fuels encountered problems with short supply. 


Figure 1. Image from Hubbert’s 1956 paper, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 

In such a world, there would be plenty of net energy from alternative fuels to run society. Because of this, even if fossil fuels ran low, it would be easy to maintain the economy’s infrastructure, without disruption. In Hubbert’s 1962 paper, Energy Resources – A Report to the Committee on Natural Resources, Hubbert writes about the possibility of having so much cheap energy that it would be possible to essentially reverse combustion–combine lots of energy, plus carbon dioxide and water, to produce new types of fuel plus water. If we could do this, we could solve many of the world’s problems–fix our high CO2 levels, produce lots of fuel for our current vehicles, and even desalinate water, without fossil fuels. 

He also showed this figure in his 1956 paper: 


Figure 2. Image from Hubbert’s 1956 paper, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 

In this figure, most of the additional energy comes from nuclear energy, while a smaller amount comes from “solar” energy. By solar energy, Hubbert would seem to mean solar, wind, tidal, wood, biofuels, and other energy we get on a day-to-day basis, indirectly from the sun. His figure seems to suggest that solar energy would basically act as a fossil fuel extender, and would not last beyond the time fossil fuels last. The primary long-term source of energy would be nuclear. 


Figure 3. Hubbert’s application of his curve to world oil supply, from his 1956 paper. 

In such a world, applying Hubbert’s Curve to world oil supply would make perfect sense, because there would be plenty of other energy, to provide the energy needed to keep up the infrastructure needed to main extraction of oil, gas, and other fuels as long as they were available. Even liquid fuels and pollution wouldn’t be a problem, if they could be manufactured synthetically. The carrying capacity of the world for food would eventually be a factor, but in one scenario in his 1976 paper, he shows the possibility of world population eventually reaching 15 billion people, thanks to the availability of other fuels. 

Another Approach to Forecasting Future Oil Supply: Limits to Growth Type Modeling 

Another approach estimating the shape of the decline curve is by applying modeling techniques, such as used in the 1972 book Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows et al. The factors considered in this model were population, food per capita, industrial output, pollution, and resources. Resources were modeled in total, not oil separately from other types of resources. There were 24 scenarios run. The base scenario suggested that the world would start hitting resource limits about now (plus or minus 10 or 20 years). There have been several analyses regarding how this model is faring, and the conclusion seems to be that it is more or less on track. This is a link to such an analysis by Charles Hall and John Day. 

With this type of model, according to Limits to Growth (p. 142), “The basic mode of the world system is exponential growth of population and capital, followed by collapse.” This type of decline would seem to be substantially faster than the decline predicted by the Hubbert Curve. 

One thing I notice about the Limits to Growth model is that it leaves out our debt-based financial system. Since so much capital is borrowed in today’s world, it seems like including such a variable would tend to make the system even more “brittle”, and perhaps move up the date when collapse occurs. 

Also, the Limits to Growth model is for the world as a whole, rather than for different parts of the world. Different areas of the world can be expected to be affected differently, as oil gets in shorter supply. The effect of this would seem to be to push economies which have a higher need for oil (illustrated above with my estimate that the US requires a EROEI of 8.0 on energy resources) down toward economies that use smaller amounts of oil (illustrated by my rough guess that perhaps China could get by with an EROEI of 4.0), especially if they trade with each other. I explain how I see this happening in a later section of this post. 

Demand for Oil (or other Fossil Fuels) 

Even if there is plenty of high-priced oil extracted from the ground, if potential buyers cannot afford it, there can be a problem, leading to a decline in oil production. Demand can be thought of as the willingness and ability to purchase oil products. Many people would like to have gasoline for their cars, but if they are unemployed, or have a part-time minimum wage job, they are likely not to have enough money to buy very much. 

Over the long term, declining demand can be expected because of declining EROEI, as illustrated by Prof. Charles Hall’s “Cheese Slicer” model.

Figure 4. Professor Charles Hall’s cheese slicer model of the economy, reflecting the energy needed to make energy, and other aspects of the economy at 1970 


Figure 5. Professor Charles Hall’s cheese slicer model of the economy, reflecting the energy needed to make energy, and other aspects of the economy at 2030 

Declining demand, and ultimately lack of sufficient demand to support supply, is related to the much larger size of the big black “energy needed to create energy” arrow as resources become more and more difficult to extract, and the much smaller size of the red discretionary spending arrows. When the discretionary spending arrows are small, people can’t afford the oil that is produced. 

Lack of Demand Can Be Expected to Affect the More-Developed World before the Less-Developed World 

Let me explain one way I see lack of demand for oil arising in the developed world today. This is related to the tendency of economies with high required EROEI to maintain infrastructure to be the first economies to be affected by declining EROEI, and by the tendency of free trade to lead to equalization among economies. 


Figure 6. US energy consumption, from Energy Export Data Browser 

US energy consumption in general, and oil consumption in particular, has been relatively flat in the 2000-2009 period, and declining at the end of that period, indicating low demand. Prior to this period, it was rising. 

More or less the reverse has happened in China and India. Growth in oil use and energy products in general was moderate prior to 2000, but increased rapidly after 2000. 


Figure 7. China’s energy consumption, from Energy Export Data Browser 


Figure 8. India’s energy consumption, from Energy Export Data Browser 

When we look at the percentage of the US population that is employed (Figure 9), it has been decreasing since 2000, so there are fewer people earning wages, and thus able to buy oil and other products. Prior to 2000, the percentage of the US population working was increasing. 


Figure 9. Percentage of US population with jobs has been falling since 2000, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics Data. 

In fact, over time, in the US, there is a high correlation between number of people employed and amount of oil consumed. 


Figure 10. Comparison of number of jobs (BLS) with oil product supplied (EIA) 

This high correlation is not surprising for two reasons: (1) jobs very often involve often use oil in producing or shipping goods, and because (2) people who are earning a salary can afford to buy goods and services that use oil. 

If we think about it, businesses employing people in China and India have three cost advantages over businesses employing people in the US: 

1. People in China and India earn less, in large part because their life styles use less oil. As the price of oil has rises, a person would expect this difference to become greater, if salaries of US earners are raised over time, to reflect the higher cost of oil, as it rises. If the living standards in China increase, the salary differential could decline, but still might be very high in dollar terms. 

2. The cost of electricity used in manufacturing in China and India is cheaper, because it is generally coal-based. The cost of electricity from coal is quite likely even cheaper than electricity from coal from the United States, because these countries are more likely to have poor pollution controls, and because the coal is extracted using cheap labor. The difference in the cost of electricity can be expected to become greater, to the extent the US imposes stricter pollution regulations, or switches to higher priced alternative power (say, offshore wind), or imposes a carbon tax. 

3. Taxes and employee benefits are likely to be lower (in absolute dollars, but perhaps as a percentage as well) in China or India, because infrastructure is less complex, and because there is less in the way benefits comparable to Social Security, Medicare, etc. (This is related to the lower EROEI required to maintain the infrastructure in these countries.) 

With these advantages, as trade restrictions are eased and more “free” trade of services is enabled through the Internet, I would expect an increasing number of jobs to move overseas, and more goods and services to be imported. Salaries will also tend to stay lower in the US, especially for jobs associated to goods and services that can be produced more cheaply in China or India. 

With these lower salaries in the US, demand for oil in the US will tend to be lower, because people who are paid less (or out of work) will not be able to afford high-priced oil for vacations and other optional purchases. As more US jobs move overseas, unemployment and recession can be expected to increasingly become problems. Furthermore, it will become difficult to collect enough taxes from the lower number of employed people to pay enough taxes to keep the system operating. I write about this in What’s Behind the US’ Budget Problems? 

One thing that happens, too, with this arrangement is that world’s coal use has risen. 


Figure 11. World energy consumption, from Energy Export Data Browser 

I wonder if all of the emphasis on CO2 reduction has not exacerbated the problem. Countries that reduce their own coal use and instead rely more on imports can feel virtuous, but they also set the stage for negative impacts. By using less coal, these countries leave more coal for lesser developed countries to import. These lesser developed countries probably burn it less safely (for example, with less mercury controls) and compete with them for jobs. The developed countries can be expected to have more and more budget problems, as their tax bases erode, and the number of unemployed rises. 

When new electricity generation is planned in the United States, the usual practice is to compare expected costs with other types of new electricity generation that might be possible in the United States. It seems to me that this practice does not show the full picture. Goods and services produced in the United States will have to compete with goods and services produced around the world. Some of the electricity used will be from nuclear plants that have long been paid off; some will be from coal production; and a little will be from high priced new types of electricity production. As long as there are no tariffs or other trade restrictions, higher-priced US electricity will tend to hinder exports and help imports. I would vote for trade restrictions. 

Conclusion 

The downslope of oil production can be expected to reflect a combination of different impacts. Unless technology improvements truly have a huge impact, it would seem to me that the overall direction of the downslope is likely to be faster than Hubbert’s Curve would predict. 

Thanks for writing! 

Best Regards, 

Gail Tverberg (also known as Gail the Actuary

2011 – THE YEAR OF CATCH-22

I wrote this on January 3. It was my outlook for 2011. Whenever I think I’m too pessimistic about the world, I go back and read old articles. This article is less than 4 months old and the situation has gotten much worse, much faster than I anticipated. The economy has slowed dramatically, even with the payroll tax cut and Ben’s QE2. I now think the 2nd half of 2011 will be outright recession. Again, my own words prove than I’m actually an optimist compared to what really happens. Think about that the next time you get depressed by one of my articles.

As I began to think about what might happen in 2011, the classic Joseph Heller novel Catch 22 kept entering my mind. Am I sane for thinking such a thing, or am I so insane that asking this question proves that I’m too rational to even think such a thing?  In the novel, the “Catch 22” is that “anyone who wants to get out of combat duty isn’t really crazy”. Hence, pilots who request a fitness evaluation are sane, and therefore must fly in combat. At the same time, if an evaluation is not requested by the pilot, he will never receive one (i.e. they can never be found “insane”), meaning he must also fly in combat. Therefore, Catch-22 ensures that no pilot can ever be grounded for being insane – even if he were. The absurdity is captured in this passage:

There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s own safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane, he had to fly them. If he flew them, he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to, he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle. “That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” he observed. “It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed. – Catch 22 – Joseph Heller

The United States and its leaders are stuck in their own Catch 22. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term interest rates will increase, further depressing the housing market and increasing the interest expense burden for the US, therefore increasing the deficit. A recovering economy would result in more production and consumption, which would result in more oil consumption driving the price above $100 per barrel, therefore depressing the economy. Americans must save for their retirements as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but if the savings rate goes back to 10%, the economy will collapse due to lack of consumption. Consumer expenditures account for 71% of GDP and need to revert back to 65% for the US to have a balanced sustainable economy, but a reduction in consumer spending will push the US back into recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing deficits. You can see why Catch 22 is the theme for 2011.

It seems the consensus for 2011 is that the economy will grow 3% to 4%, two million new jobs will be created, corporate profits will rise, and the stock market will rise another 10% to 15%. Sounds pretty good. The problem with this storyline is that it is based on a 2010 that gave the appearance of recovery, but was a hoax propped up by trillions in borrowed funds. On January 1, 2010 the National Debt of the United States rested at $12.3 trillion. On December 31, 2010 the National Debt checked in at $13.9 trillion, an increase of $1.6 trillion.

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet totaled $2.28 trillion on January 1, 2010. Today, it stands at $2.46 trillion, an increase of $180 billion.

 

Over this same time frame, the Real GDP of the U.S. has increased approximately $350 billion, and is still below the level reached in the 4th Quarter of 2007. U.S. politicians and Ben Bernanke spent almost $1.8 trillion, or 13% of GDP, in one year to create a miniscule 2.7% increase in GDP. This is reported as a recovery by the mainstream corporate media mouthpieces. On September 18, 2008 the American financial system came within hours of a total meltdown, caused by Wall Street mega-banks and their bought off political cronies in Washington DC. The National Debt on that day stood at $9.7 trillion. The US Government has borrowed $4.2 since that date, a 43% increase in the National Debt in 27 months. The Federal Reserve balance sheet totaled $963 billion in September 2008 and Bernanke has expanded it by $1.5 trillion, a 155% increase in 27 months. Most of the increase was due to the purchase of toxic mortgage backed securities from their Wall Street masters.

Real GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2008 was $13.2 trillion. Real GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2010 was $13.3 trillion.

Think about these facts for one minute. Your leaders have borrowed $5.7 trillion from future unborn generations and have increased GDP by $100 billion. The financial crisis, caused by excessive debt creation by Wall Street and ridiculously low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, 30 years in the making, erupted in 2008. The response to a crisis caused by too much debt and interest rates manipulated too low was to create an immense amount of additional debt and reduce interest rates to zero. The patient has terminal cancer and the doctors have injected the patient with more cancer cells and a massive dose of morphine. The knowledge about how we achieved the 2010 “recovery” is essential to understanding what could happen in 2011.

Confidence Game

Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama, the Wall Street banks, and the corporate mainstream media are playing a giant confidence game. It is a desperate gamble. The plan has been to convince the population of the US that the economy is in full recovery mode. By convincing the masses that things are recovering, they will begin to spend and buy stocks. If they spend, companies will gain confidence and start hiring workers. More jobs will create increasing confidence, reinforcing the recovery story, and leading to the stock market soaring to new heights. As the market rises, the average Joe will be drawn into the market and it will go higher. Tax revenues will rise as corporate profits, wages and capital gains increase. This will reduce the deficit. This is the plan and it appears to be working so far. But, Catch 22 will kick in during 2011.

Retail sales are up 6.5% over 2009 as consumers have been convinced to whip out one of their 15 credit cards and buy some more iPads, Flat screen TVs, Ugg boots and Tiffany diamond pendants. Consumer non-revolving debt for autos, student loans, boats and mobile homes is at an all-time high as the government run financing arms of GMAC and Sallie Mae have issued loans to anyone that can fog a mirror with their breath. Total consumer credit card debt has been flat for 2010 as banks have written it off as fast as consumers can charge it. The savings rate has begun to fall again as Americans are being convinced to live today and not worry about tomorrow. Of course, the current savings rate of 5.9% would be 2% if the government was not dishing out billions in transfer payments. Wages have declined by $127 billion from the 3rd Quarter of 2008, while government transfer payments for unemployment and other social programs have increased by $441 billion, all borrowed.

  Graph of Personal Saving Rate

Both the government and its citizens are living the old adage:

Everybody wants to get to heaven, but no one wants to practice what is required to get there.

The government politicians and bureaucrats promise to cut unsustainable spending as soon as the economy recovers. The economy has been recovering for the last 6 quarters, according to GDP figures, but there are absolutely no government efforts to cut spending. This is proof that politicians always lie. It will never be the right time to cut spending. Another faux crisis will be used as a reason to continue unfunded spending increases. Having consumer spending account for 70% of GDP is unbalanced and unsustainable. Everyone knows that consumer spending needs to revert back to 65% of GDP and the Savings Rate needs to rise to 8% or higher in order to ensure the long-term fiscal health of the country. Savings and investment are what sustain countries over time. Borrowing and spending is a recipe for failure and bankruptcy. The facts are that consumer expenditures as a percentage of GDP have actually risen since 2007 and Congress and Obama just cut payroll taxes in an effort to encourage Americans to spend even more borrowed money. Catch 22 is alive and well.

The first half of 2011 is guaranteed to give the appearance of recovery. The lame-duck Congress “compromise” will pump hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars into the economy. The continuation of unemployment benefits for 99 weeks (supposedly to help employment) and the 2% payroll tax cut will goose consumer spending. Ben Bernanke and his QE2 stimulus for poor Wall Street bankers is pumping $75 billion per month ($3 to $4 billion per day) directly into the stock market. Since Ben gave Wall Street the all clear signal in late August, the NASDAQ has soared 25%. Despite the fact that there are 362,000 less Americans employed than were employed in August 2010, the mainstream media will continue to tout the jobs recovery. The goal of all these efforts is to boost confidence and spending. Everything being done by those in power has the seeds of its own destruction built in. The Catch 22 will assert itself in the 2nd half of 2011.

Housing Catch 22

Ben Bernanke, an Ivy League PhD who should understand the concept of standard deviation, missed a 3 standard deviation bubble in housing as ironically pointed out by a recent Dallas Federal Reserve report.

Chart 1: U.S. Real Home Prices Returning to Long-Term Mean?

Home prices still need to fall 23%, just to revert to its long-term mean. That is a fact that even Bernanke should be able to grasp (maybe not). Anyone who argues that housing has bottomed and will resume growth either has an agenda (NAR) or is a clueless dope (Bernanke). A new perfect storm is brewing for housing in 2011 and will not subside until late 2012. You may have thought those bad mortgages had been all written off. You would be wrong. There will be in excess of $200 billion of adjustable rate mortgages that reset between 2011 and 2012, with in excess of $125 billion being the dreaded Alt-A mortgages. This is a recipe for millions of new foreclosures.

[SNLCreditSuisse.jpg]

According to the Dallas Fed, in addition to the 3.9 million homes on the market, there is a shadow inventory of 6 million homes that will be coming on the market due to foreclosure. About 3.6 million housing units, representing 2.7% of the total housing stock, are vacant and being held off the market. These are not occasional-use homes visited by people whose usual residence is elsewhere but units that are vacant year-round. Presumably, many are among the 6 million distressed properties that are listed as at least 60 days delinquent, in foreclosure or foreclosed in banks’ inventories.

The coup de grace for the housing market will be Ben Bernake’s ode to Catch 22. In his November 4 OP-ED piece he had this to say about his $600 billion QE2:

“Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance.”Housing sage Ben Bernanke

On the day Bernanke wrote these immortal words 30 Year Mortgage rates were 4.2%. Today, two months later, they stand at 5.0%. This should be a real boon to refinancing and the avalanche of mortgage resets coming down the pike. It seems that money printing and a debt financed “recovery” leads to higher long-term interest rates. The more convincing the recovery, the higher interest rates will go. The higher interest rates go, the further the housing market will drop. The further housing prices drop, the number of underwater homeowners will grow to 30%. This will lead to more foreclosures. Approximately 50% of all the assets on banks books are backed by real estate. Billions in bank losses are in the pipeline. Do you see the Catch 22 in Bernanke’s master plan? The Dallas Fed sees it:

This unease highlights the housing market’s fragility and suggests there may be no pain-free path to the eventual righting of the market. No perfect solution to the housing crisis exists. The latest price declines will undoubtedly cause more economic dislocation. As the crisis enters its fifth year, uncertainty is as prevalent as ever and continues to hinder a more robust economic recovery. Given that time has not proven beneficial in rendering pricing clarity, allowing the market to clear may be the path of least distress. – Dallas Fed

Quantitative Easing Catch 22

Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing (dropping dollars from helicopters) is riddled with Catch-22 implications. Bernanke revealed his plan in his 2002 speech about deflation:

“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost.”

The expectations of most when reading Ben’s words were that his helicopters would drop the dollars across America. What he has done is load up his helicopters with trillions of dollars and circled above Wall Street for two years continuously dropping his load. Bernanke’s quantitative easing, which will triple the Fed’s balance sheet by June of 2011, began in earnest in early 2009. The price for a gallon on gasoline was $1.62. Today, it is $3.05, an 88% increase in two years. Gold was $814 an ounce. Today, it is $1,421 an ounce, a 61% increase in two years. In the last year, the prices for copper, silver, cotton, wheat, corn, coffee and other commodities have risen in price by 30% to 90%.  

2 year gold price per ounce

Quantitative easing has been sold to the public as a way to avoid the terrible ravages of deflation. The fact is there are less jobs, lower wages, lower home prices, zero returns on bank deposits, higher fuel costs, higher food costs, higher real estate taxes, higher medical insurance premiums and huge jaw dropping bonuses for the bankers on Wall Street. Somehow the government has spun this toxic mix into a CPI which has resulted in fixed income senior citizens getting no increases in their pitiful Social Security payments for two years. You can judge where Ben’s Helicopters have dropped the $2 trillion. Quantitative easing has benefited only Wall Street bankers and the 1% wealthiest Americans. The $1.4 trillion of toxic mortgage backed securities on The Fed’s balance sheet are worth less than $700 billion. How will they unload this toxic waste? The Treasuries they have bought drop in value as interest rates rise. Quantitative easing’s Catch 22 is that it can never be unwound without destroying the Fed and the US economy.

The USD dollar index was at 89 in early 2009. Today, it stands at 79, an 11% decline, which is phenomenal considering that Europe has imploded over this same time frame. Bernanke’s master plan is for the USD to fall and ease the burden of our $14 trillion in debt. He just wants it to fall slowly. Foreigners know what he is doing and are stealthily getting out of their USD positions. This explains much of the rise in gold, silver and commodities. The rise in oil to $91 a barrel will not be a top. The Catch-22 of a declining dollar is that prices of all imported goods go up. If the dollar falls another 10%, the price of oil will rise above $120 a barrel and push the economy back into recession. Then there is the little issue of at what level of printing and debasing the currency does the rest of the world lose its remaining confidence in Ben and the USD.

U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX)

A few other “minor” issues for 2011 include:

  • The imminent collapse of the European Union as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are effectively bankrupt. Spain is the size of the other three countries combined and has a 20% unemployment rate. The Germans are losing patience with these spendthrift countries. Debt does matter.
  • State and local governments were able to put off hard choices for another year, as Washington DC handed out hundreds of billions in pork. California will have a $19 billion budget deficit; Illinois will have a $17 billion budget deficit; New Jersey will have a $10.5 billion budget deficit; New York will have a $9 billion budget deficit. A US Congress filled with Tea Party newcomers will refuse to bailout these spendthrift states. Substantial government employee layoffs are a lock.

  • There is a growing probability that China will experience a hard landing as their own quantitative easing has resulted in inflation surging to a 28 month high of 5.1%, with food inflation skyrocketing to 11.7%. Poor families spend up to half of their income on food. Rapidly rising prices severely burden poor people and can spark civil unrest if too many of them can’t afford food.
  • The Tea Party members of Congress are likely to cause as much trouble for Republicans as Democrats. If they decide to make a stand on raising the debt ceiling early in 2011, all hell could break loose in the debt and stock markets. 

The government’s confidence game is destined to fail due to Catch-22. Will the consensus forecast of a growing economy, rising corporate profits, 10% to 15% stock market gains, 2 million new jobs, and a housing recovery come true in 2011? No it will not. By mid-year confidence in Ben’s master plan will wane. He is trapped in the paradox of Catch-22. When you start hearing about QE3 you’ll know that the gig is up. If Bernanke is foolish enough to propose QE3 you can expect gold, silver and oil to go parabolic. Enjoy 2011. I don’t think Ben Bernanke will.

“That’s some catch, that Catch-22.” -Yossarian

YEARS OF THE MODERN

Is humanity forming en-masse? for lo, tyrants tremble, crowns grow dim,
The earth, restive, confronts a new era, perhaps a general divine war,
No one knows what will happen next, such portents fill the days and
nights;

Years prophetical! the space ahead as I walk, as I vainly try to
pierce it, is full of phantoms,

Unborn deeds, things soon to be, project their shapes around me,
This incredible rush and heat, this strange ecstatic fever of dreams
O years! – Years of the Modern
– Walt Whitman

The great American poet Walt Whitman wrote these words in 1859. Whitman was trying to peer into a future of uncertainty. He was sure the future would be bleak. He had visions of phantoms. Maybe he saw the 600,000 souls who would lose their lives in the next six years. Whitman had captured the mood of a country entering the Fourth Turning. He didn’t know what would happen, but he felt the beat of war drums in the distance. Whitman did not have the benefit of historical perspective that we have today.

There have been three Fourth Turnings in American History. The American Revolution Fourth Turning ended in 1794 with the Crisis mood easing with the presidency of George Washington. Whitman didn’t realize that, 64 years after the previous Fourth Turning, the mood of the country was ripe for revolution and the sweeping away of the old order. When the stock market crashed in 1929, 64 years after the exhausting conclusion to the Civil War Fourth Turning, Americans didn’t realize the generational constellation was propelling them toward a new social order and a horrific world war. It is now 66 years since the conclusion of the Depression/WWII Fourth Turning. All indications are that the current Fourth Turning began in the 2007 – 2009, with the collapse of the housing market and the ensuing financial system implosion.

I find myself vainly trying to pierce the veil of events yet to be. The future is filled with haunting phantoms of unborn deeds which could lead to renewed glory, untold death and destruction, or the possibly the end of the great American experiment. Walt Whitman captured the change of mood in the country with his poem. History books are filled with dates and descriptions of events, battles, speeches and assassinations. What most people don’t understand is Fourth Turnings aren’t about events, but about the citizens’ reaction to the events.

The Boston Massacre did not start the American Revolution Fourth Turning, but the Boston Tea Party did. John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry did not start the Civil War Fourth Turning, but the election of Abraham Lincoln did. World War I did not start the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning, but the 1929 Stock Market Crash did. The 9/11 terrorist attack did not start latest Fourth Turning, but the Wall Street induced housing/financial system collapse did. In each instance, the generations were aligned in a manner that would lead to a sweeping away of the old civic order and a regeneracy with the institution of a new order.   Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elder hood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.

 

One hundred and fifty years ago this week Fort Sumter was bombarded by upstart revolutionaries attempting to break away from an overbearing Federal government based in Washington D.C. Exactly four years later the butchery and death concluded dramatically with Robert E. Lee surrendering to Ulysses S. Grant at Appomattox and the assassination of Abraham Lincoln by John Wilkes Booth at Ford’s Theatre. For the next four years we will celebrate the 150th anniversary of various battles that marked the Civil War. What people will not consider are the similarities between that tumultuous period in our history and the period we are in today. Fourth Turnings are marked by different events but the same mood of upheaval, anger and fury.

As Strauss & Howe note in their book, the morphology of a Fourth Turning follows a predictable pattern:

  • A Crisis era begins with a catalyst – a starting event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.
  • Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy – a new counter entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.
  • The regenerated society propels toward a climax – a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.
  • The climax culminates in a resolution – a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.

Strauss & Howe describe the normal sequence:

This Crisis morphology occurs over the span of one turning, which (except for the U.S. Civil War) means that around fifteen to twenty-five years elapse between the catalyst and the resolution. The regeneracy usually occurs one to five years after the era begins, the climax one to five years before it ends.

The catalysts are relatively easy to identify, but the point of regeneracy is more subtle and harder to grasp.

Fiery Moment of Death & Discontinuity

“Like nature, history is full of processes that cannot happen in reverse. Just as the laws of entropy do not allow a bird to fly backward, or droplets to regroup at the top of a waterfall, history has no rewind button. Like the seasons of nature, it moves only forward. Saecular entropy cannot be reversed. An Unraveling cannot lead back to an Awakening, or forward to a High, without a Crisis in between. The spirit of America comes once a saeculum, only through what the ancients called ekpyrosis, nature’s fiery moment of death and discontinuity. History’s periodic eras of Crisis combust the old social order and give birth to a new.”Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

 

 

The catalyst for the American Revolution was the Boston Tea Party. The catalyst for the Civil War was the election of Abraham Lincoln. The catalyst for the Great Depression was the 1929 Stock market crash. The catalyst for the current Crisis was the housing/financial system collapse. The catalyst is an event that terminates the brooding mood of the Unraveling and unleashes the fury of a Crisis. The three previous Crisis periods in American history were driven by different events, but similar generational dynamics. By closely examining the dynamics and threats that were facing the country during these previous Crisis periods, we may be able to peer into the murky fog of the future and make out the phantoms of events to come. What we know for sure is every previous Crisis had an economic and fairness dimension that provided the initial spark, triggering a series of events that eventually led to an all encompassing war for survival.

American Revolution – The economic dimension that led to the onset of the American Revolution can be summed up in the rallying cry of the colonists, “No Taxation, Without Representation.”  The British felt that the colonies were created to be used in the way that best suited the crown and parliament. The French & Indian War left the British Empire deeply in debt. They responded by demanding more revenue from the colonies. The British Parliament continued to pass taxation Acts which became increasingly onerous to the independent minded American colonists:

  • Sugar Act – 1764
  • Currency Act – 1765
  • Stamp Act – 1765
  • Townshend Acts – 1767
  • Tea Act – 1773

The increasing levels of taxation and control resulted in the formation of Committees of Correspondence and the Sons of Liberty. Samuel Adams, Thomas Paine and the other firebrands led the movement for independence. The colonists grew increasingly angry with the heavy handedness and harshness of the British Monarchy. These incidents and actions solidified the mood for independence:

  • Quartering Act – 1765
  • Boston Massacre – 1770
  • Intolerable Acts – 1774

As you can see there were years of economic and political turmoil before the Boston Tea Party catalyst event ignited the revolution. The mood of enough citizens had shifted as the generational alignment no longer allowed for compromise. In the end, the increase of economic restrictions and limiting of freedom led to the revolution. As a side note, a Fourth Turning does not need a majority to be initiated. Only one-third of the colonists actively supported the rebellion.

American Civil War – The economic dimension that drove the dynamics of the Civil War related to the Southern agrarian society based upon growing cotton and the rapidly industrializing North with its cities and manufacturing prowess. The invention of the cotton gin led to many more plantations in the South depending solely on cotton to support their way of life. Cotton farming required vast amounts of cheap human labor, and slaves fit the bill. Abolitionists in the North had the moral high ground as Southern plantation owners treated human beings as property. Attitudes became more intense after the publication of  Uncle Tom’s Cabin, the Dred Scott Decision, and the John Brown raid on Harper’s Ferry. The issue of slavery had been boiling beneath the surface since the adoption of the US Constitution. Various compromises had been struck over the years to keep the issue at bay:

  • Missouri Compromise
  • Compromise of 1850
  • Kansas – Nebraska Act

These economic and human rights issues became wrapped in the mantle of states’ rights and the struggle between the Federal government and State governments. The battle reached back to the earliest days of the Republic between Jefferson and Hamilton.  Many felt that the new constitution ignored the rights of states to continue to act independently. They felt the states should still have the right to decide if they were willing to accept certain federal acts. This resulted in the idea of nullification, whereby the states would have the right to rule federal acts unconstitutional. The federal government denied states this right. With the election of Abraham Lincoln, the Southern states saw a man who was against slavery, believed in a strong Federal government, and supporter of the industrial North. The years of compromise were over. The firebrand prophet generation took control in Washington DC and Richmond Virginia. A fight to the finish was unavoidable.

Great Depression/World War II – The economic dimension that drove the onset of this Crisis was the unbridled greed and speculation of Wall Street banks. The easy money policies of the Federal Reserve, formed in secret and voted into existence on Christmas Eve with many members of Congress not present created the Roaring 20’s. While farmers struggled to survive on the drought stricken plains and the average person lived a hard scrabble existence, the banking elite reaped obscene profits, with the top 1% sucking 23.9% of all the national income – the highest level in U.S. history.

The 1920’s were a time of cultural decay, decadence and disillusionment. This mood was reflected in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby. As we know too well, every boom eventually goes bust. The bust came in October 1929, with a stock market crash. Stockholders lost $40 billion. The market dropped 89% over a two year period. By 1933, 11,000 of the 25,000 banks in the US had failed. These were mostly small regional banks. The major NY banks such as JP Morgan and Mellon became more powerful. The artificial interference in the economy by the Federal government and Federal Reserve was a disaster prior to the Depression, and government efforts to prop up the economy after the crash of 1929 only made things worse. Passage of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs spread the depression around the world. The economic hardship in Germany led to the election of Adolf Hitler and set the stage for a future war that would kill 65 million people. FDR’s New Deal programs crowded out private industry and resulted in unemployment staying at levels exceeding 15% for an entire decade. Keynesian government spending prolonged the depression and put into place social programs that set in motion the debt bomb that threatens the country today.

Force Advancing with Irresistible Power

I see not America only, not only Liberty’s nation but other nations
preparing,

I see tremendous entrances and exits, new combinations, the solidarity
of races,

I see that force advancing with irresistible power on the world’s stage,
(Have the old forces, the old wars, played their parts? are the acts
suitable to them closed?)

I see Freedom, completely arm’d and victorious and very haughty,
with Law on one side and Peace on the other,

A stupendous trio all issuing forth against the idea of caste;
What historic denouements are these we so rapidly approach?
I see men marching and countermarching by swift millions,
I see the frontiers and boundaries of the old aristocracies broken,
I see the landmarks of European kings removed,
I see this day the People beginning their landmarks, (all others give
way;)

Never were such sharp questions ask’d as this day,
Never was average man, his soul, more energetic, more like a God,

Years of the Modern– Walt Whitman

 

 

Walt Whitman foresaw vast armies on the march and old orders being swept away by the historic denouements that were rapidly approaching. But even he couldn’t have foreseen the butchery and tragic deaths of over 600,000 men in the next four bloody years. The economic dimensions of the current Crisis were foreseeable at least a decade before the Crisis arrived. The Federal Reserve, under the “wise” supervision of former Ayn Rand disciple Alan Greenspan, progressively blew one bubble after another through its easy money policies. The Greenspan Put allowed the Wall Street vampire squids to suck the life out of the American economic system without fear of being harpooned for taking financial system endangering leveraged bets. The financial oligarchs used their influence, power and vast wealth to repeal Glass-Steagall, capture and buy off the rating agencies, neuter the SEC and other regulatory agencies and place their executives in high level government positions. The ruling wealthy elite again matched their peak take of the national income, just as they did in 1928.

The debt, fraud and lack of financial regulation that catalyzed the near collapse of the worldwide financial system in 2008, 63 years after the end of the last Fourth Turning, have not been purged from the system. In fact, those in power have decided more debt, accounting fraud and financial ignorance is the path to recovery for America. The issues which will be the driving forces during this Crisis are clear to anyone with their eyes open:

  • A National Debt the will approach $20 trillion by 2015 and has already surpassed 90% of GDP, the point of no return.
  • Annual deficits exceeding $1.5 trillion and equal to over 10% of GDP.
  • The unfunded promises made by slimy politicians over decades for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security exceeds $100 trillion and can never be paid.
  • A military industrial complex that controls Congress, is fighting three wars, occupies hundreds of bases throughout the world and spends $1 trillion per year, seven times more than any other country in the world.
  • A financial industry debt peddling complex that has gained control over the government and media to such an extent they have been able to rape and pillage the American people for three decades, convincing regulatory agencies to allow them 40 to 1 leverage, crashing the financial system through a massive mortgage/derivatives fraudulent ponzi scheme, threatening the American people into giving them $4 trillion of taxpayer money, paying themselves hundreds of billions in bonuses for a job well done, and then insisting on lower taxes for their corporations and the rich oligarchs who inhabit these towers of evil in downtown Manhattan.
  • Wealthy elite who use their existing wealth to control Congress, the media and the financial debt peddling industry, abscond with 25% of the national income and control 42% of the financial wealth in the country. At the same time real wages of middle class Americans have been stagnant for 4 decades, real unemployment exceeds 20%, 45 million people need food stamps to make ends meet, and real inflation on the things middle class Americans need hovers around 10%. The gap between the Haves and Have Nots has never been greater.

   

  • The Federal Reserve has boxed itself into a corner and will be unable to extricate itself with its only weapon – the printing press. It has tripled the size of its balance sheet to $2.7 trillion, with at least half of the “assets” consisting of toxic worthless mortgages bought from their Wall Street masters. 0% interest rates for two and a half years, QE1 and QE2, and allowing banks to fraudulently report the value of their loans have failed to jumpstart the economy. Come June of 2011 they will be faced with a dilemma – PRINT or DIE. If they stop buying U.S. Treasury debt, interest rates will go up dramatically. If they keep printing to buy U.S. Treasury debt, the dollar will continue to fall and inflation will accelerate from its already high level.
  • The biggest wildcard among the Fourth Turning catalysts is Peak Oil. The modern industrial world is completely dependent upon cheap accessible oil. Globalization, consumerism, suburban sprawl, food production and distribution, and all means of transportation are dependent upon cheap abundant oil. Peak world oil production has occurred. Demand will outstrip supply going forward at an ever increasing rate. Various levels of chaos will ensue as the realization of this fact becomes evident to everyone.
  • The peak oil scenario will mix with the toxic brew of religion. The centuries old war between Christianity and Islam has been gaining strength over the last three decades. The revolutions spreading across the Middle East will not die down. They will intensify and create havoc for the existing despotic regimes. The new regimes will not be friendly towards the U.S. The combination of peak oil, with the fact that 56% of the world’s oil reserves are controlled by Muslim countries in the Middle East provides an unsettling backdrop for the U.S., which controls less than 2% of the world’s oil reserves.

 

  • The technological complexity and interconnectedness of people across the world is a danger and a possible boon to civilization. Our entire world is dependent upon computers and networks to run our infrastructure, defense, commerce, and everyday lives. Armies, naval ships, and massed confrontation will be made obsolete by cyber warfare. Computer hackers will be able to do more damage to a country in minutes than armies could do in years of traditional warfare. The trillions the US spends on aircraft carriers, fighter jets and tanks will be wasted. The positive side of technology has been realized in its ability to organize people to fight oppression and government propaganda. Likeminded people have been able to use technology to seek and reveal the truth.

The initial stage of this Fourth Turning has run its course. The catalyst was easy to recognize. The issues that confront the nation over the next twenty years are clear. What is completely unclear to me is how our fractured society achieves a regeneracy – a new counterentropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life. The regeneracy usually occurs one to five years after the Crisis era begins. This means that the country would need to reunify and begin to confront our challenges by 2013. Regeneracy began with the Declaration of Independence during the American Revolution. Regeneracy began with Abraham Lincoln demanding the enlistment of 500,000 men after the Battle of Bull Run. Regeneracy began with FDR’s New Deal programs in 1933 during the Great Depression. What will begin the Regeneracy this time?

Something Wicked This Way Comes 

“Decisive events will occur – events so vast, powerful, and unique that they lie beyond today’s wildest hypothesis. These events will inspire great documents and speeches, visions of a new political order being framed. People will discover a hitherto unimagined capacity to fight and die, and to let their children fight and die, for a communal cause. The Spirit of America will return, because there will be no other choice. Thus will Americans reenact the great ancient myth of the ekpyrosis. Thus will we achieve our next rendezvous with destiny.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

 

The storyline promulgated by the mainstream linear thinking opinion leaders is the economy is recovering, the banking system is sound, the stock market is booming, buying a house is a great investment, inflation is below 2%,  jobs are being created, and consumers have regained their confidence and spending power. This message is hammered home on a daily basis by the corporate run mainstream media. It is patently false and the thinking members of the American public know it. The economic condition of the country is rapidly deteriorating. While politicians posture and lie to the citizens, the fissures in our financial system grow wider. As of today, regeneracy and unification behind one common national purpose seems light years away. Strauss & Howe speculated in 1997 about potential events that could spur events during the next Fourth Turning. One of their possible scenarios looms in the near future:

  • An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics. 

The event necessary to cause a regeneracy in this country will need to be on an epic scale. Based upon a review of the foreseeable issues confronting our society it is clear to me that a worse financial implosion will strike before the 2012 presidential election. It may be triggered by a debt ceiling confrontation, the ending of QE2, a panic out of the USD, hyperinflation, a surge in oil prices, or some combination of these possibilities. The ensuing collapse of the stock and bond markets will remove the last vestiges of trust in the existing financial system and the government bureaucrats who have taken taxpayer dollars and funneled them to these Wall Street oligarchs.

The economic chaos will likely lead to a Republican landslide in the 2012 election. A Boomer Prophet with a reputation for fixing financial disasters (aka Mitt Romney) would be given a mandate to fix the economic system. All generations will realize that generational promises made cannot be fulfilled. People of a libertarian mindset, like me, will not be happy with the turn of events. In a chaotic scenario, the Federal government is likely to assume even more power than they have today. The American people will be fearful and angry. If the financial criminals on Wall Street are brought to justice, the chances of a unified populace will increase. A drop in everyone’s standard of living would be acceptable, as long as the rich shared equally in the burden. If the super wealthy oligarchs retain their power, a fracturing along class lines would become a distinct possibility. Social unrest, riots, and violent protests along the lines of the current situation in the Middle East could develop. Then a question of military use against the civilian population becomes paramount to what would happen next.

Amidst the financial chaos will be the ever present peak oil issue. The increasingly high prices and imminent shortages of supply will exacerbate the pain for the American people. The current War on Terror is really a cover for keeping American troops in the Middle East as a forward vanguard to keep the oil flowing. The U.S. consumes 7 billion barrels of oil per year and will use all means necessary to keep it flowing. With a Boomer Prophet leader invoking American manifest destiny, it is likely we will intervene to protect Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait in the name of democracy. A terrorist incident in the U.S. would provide convenient cover for further intervention in the Middle East. As with most wars the unintended consequences will overwhelm the best laid plans of politicians and generals. Further U.S. intervention into an already exploding Middle East will likely spur a larger conflict between Islam and Christianity. Ground zero could shift to Europe as millions of Muslims have settled there and will not react positively to western powers siphoning oil from Islamic countries in the name of Christianity. History has taught us that Fourth Turnings end in all out war. The outcome of wars is always in doubt. 

“History offers more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured. And if there is total war, it is likely that the most destructive weapons available will be deployed.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was reagrded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.” – Strauss and Howe – The Fourth Turning

It may be 150 years since Walt Whitman foresaw the imminent march of armies, visions of unborn deeds, and a sweeping away of the old order, but history has brought us right back to where we started. Immense challenges and threats await our nation. Will we face them with the courage and fortitude of our forefathers? Or will we shrink from our responsibility to future unborn generations? The drumbeat of history grows louder. Our rendezvous with destiny beckons.

 

RENDEVOUS WITH DESTINY

Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on June 27, 1936. This was seven years into the last Fourth Turning. We are now three or four years into the latest Fourth Turning. We are headed towards our own rendevous with destiny.

“Senator Robinson, Members of the Democratic Convention, My Friends: Here, and in every community throughout the land, we are met at a time of great moment to the future of the nation. It is an occasion to be dedicated to the simple and sincere expression of an attitude toward problems, the determination of which will profoundly affect America.

I come not only as a leader of a party, not only as a candidate for high office, but as one upon whom many critical hours have imposed and still impose a grave responsibility.

For the sympathy, help and confidence with which Americans have sustained me in my task I am grateful. For their loyalty I salute the members of our great party, in and out of political life in every part of the Union. I salute those of other parties, especially those in the Congress of the United States who on so many occasions have put partisanship aside. I thank the governors of the several states, their legislatures, their state and local officials who participated unselfishly and regardless of party in our efforts to achieve recovery and destroy abuses. Above all I thank the millions of Americans who have borne disaster bravely and have dared to smile through the storm.

America will not forget these recent years, will not forget that the rescue was not a mere party task. It was the concern of all of us. In our strength we rose together, rallied our energies together, applied the old rules of common sense, and together survived.

In those days we feared fear. That was why we fought fear. And today, my friends, we have won against the most dangerous of our foes. We have conquered fear.

But I cannot, with candor, tell you that all is well with the world. Clouds of suspicion, tides of ill-will and intolerance gather darkly in many places. In our own land we enjoy indeed a fullness of life greater than that of most nations. But the rush of modern civilization itself has raised for us new difficulties, new problems which must be solved if we are to preserve to the United States the political and economic freedom for which Washington and Jefferson planned and fought.

Philadelphia is a good city in which to write American history. This is fitting ground on which to reaffirm the faith of our fathers; to pledge ourselves to restore to the people a wider freedom; to give to 1936 as the founders gave to 1776 – an American way of life.

That very word freedom, in itself and of necessity, suggests freedom from some restraining power. In 1776 we sought freedom from the tyranny of a political autocracy – from the eighteenth-century royalists who held special privileges from the crown. It was to perpetuate their privilege that they governed without the consent of the governed; that they denied the right of free assembly and free speech; that they restricted the worship of God; that they put the average man’s property and the average man’s life in pawn to the mercenaries of dynastic power; that they regimented the people.

And so it was to win freedom from the tyranny of political autocracy that the American Revolution was fought. That victory gave the business of governing into the hands of the average man, who won the right with his neighbors to make and order his own destiny through his own government. Political tyranny was wiped out at Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.

Since that struggle, however, man’s inventive genius released new forces in our land which reordered the lives of our people. The age of machinery, of railroads; of steam and electricity; the telegraph and the radio; mass production, mass distribution – all of these combined to bring forward a new civilization and with it a new problem for those who sought to remain free.

For out of this modern civilization economic royalists carved new dynasties. New kingdoms were built upon concentration of control over material things. Through new uses of corporations, banks and securities, new machinery of industry and agriculture, of labor and capital – all undreamed of by the Fathers – the whole structure of modern life was impressed into this royal service.

There was no place among this royalty for our many thousands of small-businessmen and merchants who sought to make a worthy use of the American system of initiative and profit. They were no more free than the worker or the farmer. Even honest and progressive-minded men of wealth, aware of their obligation to their generation, could never know just where they fitted into this dynastic scheme of things.

It was natural and perhaps human that the privileged princes of these new economic dynasties, thirsting for power, reached out for control over government itself. They created a new despotism and wrapped it in the robes of legal sanction. In its service new mercenaries sought to regiment the people, their labor, and their property. And as a result the average man once more confronts the problem that faced the Minute Man.

The hours men and women worked, the wages they received, the conditions of their labor – these had passed beyond the control of the people, and were imposed by this new industrial dictatorship. The savings of the average family, the capital of the small-businessmen, the investments set aside for old age – other people’s money – these were tools which the new economic royalty used to dig itself in.

Those who tilled the soil no longer reaped the rewards which were their right. The small measure of their gains was decreed by men in distant cities.

Throughout the nation, opportunity was limited by monopoly. Individual initiative was crushed in the cogs of a great machine. The field open for free business was more and more restricted. Private enterprise, indeed, became too private. It became privileged enterprise, not free enterprise.

An old English judge once said: “Necessitous men are not free men.” Liberty requires opportunity to make a living – a living decent according to the standard of the time, a living which gives man not only enough to live by, but something to live for.

For too many of us the political equality we once had won was meaningless in the face of economic inequality. A small group had concentrated into their own hands an almost complete control over other people’s property, other people’s money, other people’s labor – other people’s lives. For too many of us life was no longer free; liberty no longer real; men could no longer follow the pursuit of happiness.

Against economic tyranny such as this, the American citizen could appeal only to the organized power of government. The collapse of 1929 showed up the despotism for what it was. The election of 1932 was the people’s mandate to end it. Under that mandate it is being ended.

The royalists of the economic order have conceded that political freedom was the business of the government, but they have maintained that economic slavery was nobody’s business. They granted that the government could protect the citizen in his right to vote, but they denied that the government could do anything to protect the citizen in his right to work and his right to live.

Today we stand committed to the proposition that freedom is no half-and-half affair. If the average citizen is guaranteed equal opportunity in the polling place, he must have equal opportunity in the market place.

These economic royalists complain that we seek to overthrow the institutions of America. What they really complain of is that we seek to take away their power. Our allegiance to American institutions requires the overthrow of this kind of power. In vain they seek to hide behind the flag and the Constitution. In their blindness they forget what the flag and the Constitution stand for. Now, as always, they stand for democracy, not tyranny; for freedom, not subjection; and against a dictatorship by mob rule and the over-privileged alike.

The brave and clear platform adopted by this convention, to which I heartily subscribe, sets forth that government in a modern civilization has certain inescapable obligations to its citizens, among which are protection of the family and the home, the establishment of a democracy of opportunity, and aid to those overtaken by disaster.

But the resolute enemy within our gates is ever ready to beat down our words unless in greater courage we will fight for them.

For more than three years we have fought for them. This convention, in every word and deed, has pledged that the fight will go on.

The defeats and victories of these years have given to us as a people a new understanding of our government and of ourselves. Never since the early days of the New England town meeting have the affairs of government been so widely discussed and so clearly appreciated. It has been brought home to us that the only effective guide for the safety of this most worldly of worlds, the greatest guide of all, is moral principle.

We do not see faith, hope, and charity as unattainable ideals, but we use them as stout supports of a nation fighting the fight for freedom in a modern civilization.

Faith – in the soundness of democracy in the midst of dictatorships.

Hope – renewed because we know so well the progress we have made.

Charity – in the true spirit of that grand old word. For charity literally translated from the original means love, the love that understands, that does not merely share the wealth of the giver, but in true sympathy and wisdom helps men to help themselves.

We seek not merely to make government a mechanical implement, but to give it the vibrant personal character that is the very embodiment of human charity.

We are poor indeed if this nation cannot afford to lift from every recess of American life the dread fear of the unemployed that they are not needed in the world. We cannot afford to accumulate a deficit in the books of human fortitude.

In the place of the palace of privilege we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity.

It is a sobering thing, my friends, to be a servant of this great cause. We try in our daily work to remember that the cause belongs not to us, but to the people. The standard is not in the hands of you and me alone. It is carried by America. We seek daily to profit from experience, to learn to do better as our task proceeds.

Governments can err, presidents do make mistakes, but the immortal Dante tells us that Divine justice weighs the sins of the cold-blooded and the sins of the warm-hearted on different scales.

Better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference.

There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.

In this world of our in other lands, there are some people, who, in times past, have lived and fought for freedom, and seem to have grown too weary to carry on the fight. They have sold their heritage of freedom for the illusion of a living. They have yielded their democracy.

I believe in my heart that only our success can stir their ancient hope. They begin to know that here in America we are waging a great and successful war. It is not alone a war against want and destitution and economic demoralization. It is more than that; it is a war for the survival of democracy. We are fighting to save a great and precious form of government for ourselves and for the world.

I accept the commission you have tendered me. I join with you. I am enlisted for the duration of the war.”

MY DUMBASS CAT STRIKES AGAIN

The picture above looks like my cat Cookie, also known as the cat with the string hanging out of her ass, saved by the murdering veterinarian. As a side note, the District Attorney is going to seek the death penalty against the veterinarian. I like to think of it as putting him to sleep.

But, back to my dumbass cat. Is Cookie stupid enough to eat a cactus? Maybe.

Is Cookie dumb enough to get trapped in a bird cage by a parakeet? Probably.

But I know she is dumb enough to get trapped inside a wall. I came home from work last night to an empty house. Everyone was off doing something. My one cat – Smokey – was in the kitchen looking for dinner. I opened a can of cat food and put it on a paper plate. Smokey went to town, but Cookie was nowhere to be found. I thought it was odd but figured she was sleeping under a bed.

Avalon arrived home after dropping Mikey off at Boy Scouts. I said that Cookie didn’t come down to eat. She said Ut Oh. It seems Avalon can’t handle the cats. Every time she walks into the storage area in the basement she allows Smokey to dash into this off limits area. Smokey then proceeds to make his way up into the drop ceiling, making Avalon’s life a living hell. Her solution this time was to leave the door open, hoping Smokey would eventually exit on his own. He eventually did. Great plan Avalon!!!

One small problem. My dumbass cat – Cookie- who is so dumb she eats fishing line, must have ventured into the storage area. What happened next is anyone’s guess. All I know is that while we were looking for Cookie, we heard a faint meow coming from somewhere. Avalon was pushing back ceiling tiles, but no cat. We heard the meow again. Avalon said she thinks it was from inside the wall. I said WTF!!! and few more choice adjectives. As I unleashed a torrent of expletives we came to the conclusion that the dumbass was trapped behind the drywall with no chance of escape. It was like an Edgar Allan Poe short story. At least I didn’t have to call the fire department.

I continued to curse my ass off as I went to get my dry wall knife so I could cut a hole into the drywall I just paid thousands of dollars to have repaired from our flood. I cut a small square and after calling the dumbass for 10 minutes she eventually arrived at the hole and sauntered out.

I put the piece of drywall back into place, but I won’t be sealing it up. I pushed a filing cabinet in front of the spot. I just have a feeling I will need to access that hole again someday.

ADMINISTRATOR ENLISTS IN THE FREE SH*T ARMY

I finally finished my tax return today. I’ve done my own taxes for 25 years. I’ve used Turbo Tax for 20 years. I’m able to upload all of my Quicken data directly into Turbo Tax. And still I felt like this guy this morning as I worked on my complicated return.

We have W-2 income, I sold a bunch of stocks and mutual funds, dividends, capital gains, option losses, K-1 for my money losing Wildwood condo, and a Schedule C for this huge money making machine of a website. There are so many pieces of paper to labor through. Turbo Tax asks you questions about passive income, alternative minimum tax, deductions, and credits. I can understand why most people pay someone else to do their taxes.

When it was all said and done, we are getting a refund. My effective tax rate for 2010 was 7%. I have Obama and the Congressional redistributors of wealth to thank for my relatively low tax burden. As I noted back in the Fall, my house is 16 years old and the builder put cheap windows in the house. The seals were breaking on multiple windows allowing moisture in, with some cracking when the temperature would change. I needed to replace my windows. It just so happened that Obama was implementing another useless economic stimulation tax credit with your money in 2010. Anyone who did a home improvement that saved energy could get a $1,500 tax credit. I took advantage of Obama’s generosity with your money today. I got a $1,500 tax credit for my window purchase. I’m now a corporal in the Free Shit Army.

The government already rewards me for having three kids, with exemptions and tax credits. It rewards me for owning a house with deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes. These facts prove how worthless our tax code has become.

I would have bought windows this year whether there was a credit or not. I bought a house in 1995 because I wanted a place to live. The mortgage interest and property tax deductions had no impact on my buying decision. I didn;t decide to have kids because I would get a credit. My marginal rate of 7% on a fairly high level of income seems low. It is low unless you compare me to General Electric.

General Electric made $14.2 billion in 2010. Their effective tax rate was -22.5%. They not only paid no taxes, but received a $3.2 billion tax refund. When middle class working Americans pay more in taxes than one of the biggest corporations in the world, then the system is broken and corrupt. GE spent $200 million in the last decade on lobbying. It looks like they got a nice return on their bribes (investment).

The corporate share of the nation’s tax receipts went from 30% in the 1950s to 6.6% in 2009. Crony capitalism is alive and well. This needs to change before it is too late.

If the politicians in this country could ever do the right thing and put the country ahead of their own interests, we could fix the revenue side of the budget. I would gladly give up my mortgage deduction, property tax deduction and credits for having kids if I knew that the wealthy and corporations were also paying their fair share. Eliminate all deductions, all loopholes, and all credits, for everyone. I’m not tied to a flat tax or fair tax or a particular rate.

As a country we need to decide what we really want. How big of a military are we willing to fund? If we want Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, SNAP, Unemployment Compensation, Welfare, and an oil based society, then we have to pay for it. The borrowing has to end. If we want something, we have to pay for it. If we want all of the social programs that exist today, then taxes will have to go up dramatically. If we don’t want taxes to go up dramatically, then we need to cut spending across the board.

The fools in Washington DC think they can borrow and spend to infinity. Sadly, they are wrong. I see no chance that the corrupt politicians will change our path. The Free Shit Army (we are all members) will keep marching until it meets its Waterloo.

ADMINISTRATOR OBLITERATES THE COMPETITION

Not only do I work a full time job, run a blog, write an article per week, do my own taxes with Turbo Tax, and spend 12 hours per week in traffic, but I’ve also proven to be a sports expert. In one of the most lopsided victories in the history of NCAA tournament pools, I obliterated my so called competion. My nearest opponent finished 440 points behind. I believe I told you guys at the beginning of this “competition” – THE ADMINISTRATOR ALWAYS WINS!!!

My only regret is that Smokey is not here to read this. His selections in this pool proved to be the most pathetic in history. A monkey throwing shit at the bracket to select their teams could have scored higher than 330 points. Smokey – if you happen to be reading this – you eat shit.

Group Results

RNK ENTRY, OWNER R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG CHAMPION PPR TOTAL PCT
1 JimQ203 1, J. Quinn 200 180 120 80 160 320 UConn 0 1060 97.6
2 jbenham99313 1, J. Benham 220 200 120 80 0 0 Kansas 0 620 83.8
3 dbacktim4 , t. priester 230 180 120 80 0 0 Ohio St 0 610 82.2
3 dannl221 1, D. white 250 200 160 0 0 0 Duke 0 610 82.2
5 Sonic, J. Crawford 230 180 160 0 0 0 Florida 0 570 72.6
5 BocaBehemoths 1, A. Petrone 250 200 120 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 570 72.6
7 Stuck-In-NJ 1, n. koch 260 140 80 80 0 0 Kansas 0 560 68.1
7 ssgconway 1, L. Conway 240 200 40 80 0 0 Ohio St 0 560 68.1
9 Plato_Pussius 1, j. parrott 250 160 120 0 0 0 Texas 0 530 56.3
10 Irrationalizer 1, L. Primrose 260 140 120 0 0 0 Notre Dame 0 520 51.9
10 LLPOHTBP 1, J. Ross 240 160 120 0 0 0 Texas 0 520 51.9
12 kevqui 1, K. Quinn 240 180 80 0 0 0 Duke 0 500 42.8
13 howard in nyc 1, w. stecke 220 140 120 0 0 0 UNC 0 480 33.6
13 TBPIowan 1, D. Latta 260 180 40 0 0 0 Kansas 0 480 33.6
15 MikeinAZ, M. Gular 210 200 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 450 21.3
15 Dirty Billy Boy’s Picks, D. Billy 230 180 40 0 0 0 Pittsburgh 0 450 21.3
17 Petey1187 1, A. Petersohn 250 140 40 0 0 0 Ohio St 0 430 14.6
18 BuchJoe 1, J. Buch 240 140 0 0 0 0 Notre Dame 0 380 5.0
19 proximo6060 1, d. morehouse 210 80 40 0 0 0 Kansas 0 330 1

TAKE THIS JOB AND SHOVE IT

Barack Obama and his minions were out in force on Friday declaring that the 216,000 jobs added in February are proof of a recovering economy. The unemployment rate fell to 8.8%, down from 9.8% in April 2010. All it took was 2.8 million Americans to leave the labor force to achieve this fabulous reduction in the unemployment rate. The percentage of Americans in the labor force of 64.2% is the lowest since 1983. The employment to population ratio of 58.5% is also the lowest since 1983. These atrocious figures are after a supposed economic recovery that has been underway for the last 18 months.

There are now 1.8 million more people employed than at the depths of this Greater Depression. The working age population has grown by 3.2 million people since 2009. Inexplicably, the civilian workforce has actually declined by 736,000 over this same time frame. The government drones at the BLS want us to believe these people voluntarily left the workforce. Obama apologists declare this is because Baby Boomers are leaving the workforce as they retire into the sunset. That is laughable, as all studies show Boomers have not saved enough to retire and will be forced to work into their 70’s.

The manipulation of data in order to spin the economic situation in this country in the best light possible has become so blatant that only the most ignorant could possibly believe it. The corporate mainstream media dutifully reports the propaganda, without ever critically assessing what is being distributed by the government. The percentage of the American working population in the workforce consistently ranged between 66% and 67% from 1998 through 2008. Then, suddenly in 2008, after the economy went in the tank, a couple million Americans found better things to do with their spare time and left the workforce. Anyone with an ounce of brains knows these people gave up and are really unemployed. The percentage of people in the labor force should be 66.5%. Using this 20 year average would add 5.5 million people to the civilian labor force and the unemployment rolls. This exercise in reality gives a real unemployment rate of 12%.

It is interesting that Obama and his top economic propagandist Austin Goolsbee were out in full force on Friday, taking credit for the “tremendous” job gains, but had nothing to say earlier in the week with a much more revealing government report. There is now an all-time high of 44.2 million Americans and 20.7 million households in the food stamp program. This is 14.3% of the American population and 18% of all the households.

I’d like to hear the Administration spin for the SNAP program. Since the supposed end of this economic recession in late 2009, the number of people added to the food stamp rolls has increased by 8 million. The annual cost for this program will reach $70 billion this year, up from $33 billion in 2007. If the economy is recovering and people are voluntarily leaving the workforce, why have the number of people on food stamps increased by 22% since the official start of the recovery? Why does the number of people going on food stamps go up every month? The answer is that there has been no economic recovery for the average American. Wall Street bankers and the ultra-wealthy elite are the only people who have experienced a recovery.

SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM
( Data as of March 31, 2011)
Fiscal PARTICIPATION BENEFIT AVERAGE MONTHLY BENEFIT
Year Persons Households COSTS Per Person Per Household
FY 2011 43,766,713 20,501,213 23,348,337,586 133.37 284.73
FY 2010 40,301,666 18,618,363 64,704,748,421 133.79 289.61
FY 2009 33,489,975 15,232,115 50,359,917,015 125.31 275.51

The true picture of the American economy is that in 2007 there were 146 million Americans employed, or 63% of the working age population. Today, there are 139.9 million Americans employed, or 58.5% of the working age population. Over this time frame, an additional 7.1 million Americans entered the working age population. In 2007 there were 26.3 million Americans on food stamps, or 8.6% of the US population. Today there are 44.2 million Americans on food stamps, or 14.3% of the US population. To call the current economic disaster a recovery is to practice the art of the Big Lie.

Real Median Household Income, which is calculated using the dodgy government CPI, has not grown in 14 years. Using a true, non-manipulated inflation figure and real median household income is no higher than it was in 1987. The mainstream media reports the headline figures like the good lapdogs they are. The BLS Establishment data going back to 1965 is a treasure trove of interesting data. The average hourly wages have declined for the last three months and are essentially flat in the last year.

real median household income

Decades of Decay

The current state of disarray in the job market did not occur overnight. It took decades of bad choices, willful ignorance and delusion. By charting BLS data over the last five decades, a picture of an empire in decay appears before your very eyes. We aren’t the first empire to experience this decay and won’t be the last. It is only in retrospect that it becomes clear that all empires gravitate from producing and creating to finance, debt and lending. The hubris of great empires leads them to believe they have been chosen by God as a special nation destined for eternal wealth and success. The seventeenth century Spanish empire thought so. The Dutch and their glorious maritime empire thought so. The all-powerful British Empire thought so. Do you hear much about these empires anymore? They all sacrificed productive activities and embraced the glories of a debt based society. Kevin Phillips details these declines in his brilliant book American Theocracy :

“Understandable as this cockiness might be, history teaches a crucial distinction: nations could marshal the necessary debt-defying high wire walks and comebacks during their youth and early middle age, when their industries, exports, capitalizations, and animal spirits were vital and expansive, but they became less resilient in later years. During these periods, as their societies polarized and their arteries clogged with rentier and debt buildups, wars and financial crises stopped being manageable. Of course, clarity about this develops only in retrospect. However, even though war related debt seems to have been part of each fatal endgame, the past leading world economic powers seem to have made another error en route. They did not pay enough attention to establishing or maintaining a vital manufacturing sector, thereby keeping a better international balance and a broader internal income distribution than financialization allowed.”

The chart below paints a clear picture of decay, debt and delusion. In 1961 the population of the United States was 184 million. There were 54 million employed Americans, with 15 million of them manufacturing goods for America and the rest of the world. Today the population of the United States is 310 million. There are 11.7 million people manufacturing goods, mostly weapons for export to our favorite despots. The population has grown by 68%, while manufacturing jobs have declined by 22%. Consumer spending accounted for 62.8% of GDP in 1961. Investments totaled 14.3% of GDP and we ran a trade surplus of $4.9 billion. Today, consumer spending accounts for 71.1% of GDP. Investments total 12.5% of GDP and we are running a $500 billion trade deficit. Over the course of 50 years, we’ve devolved from a production and exporting society into a consuming and borrowing society.

 

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2010 Mar-11
Total Employment 54,106 71,005 90,530 109,487 131,786 137,599 129,819 130,738
Mining 728 677 1,077 765 599 724 705 758
Construction 2,908 3,654 4,454 5,263 6,787 7,630 5,526 5,514
Manufacturing 15,011 17,848 18,733 17,695 17,263 13,879 11,524 11,667
 Total Goods Producing 18,647 22,179 24,264 23,723 24,649 22,233 17,755 17,939
Trade, Transport, Utilities 11,040 14,144 18,413 22,666 26,225 26,630 24,605 24,797
Information 1,693 2,041 2,361 2,688 3,630 3,032 2,711 2,681
Finance 2,590 3,532 5,025 6,614 7,687 8,301 7,630 7,610
Professional & Business Services 3,744 5,267 7,544 10,848 16,666 17,942 16,688 17,075
Education & Health Serv. 3,030 4,577 7,072 10,984 15,109 18,322 19,564 19,875
Leisure & Hospitality 3,468 4,789 6,721 9,288 11,862 13,427 13,020 13,156
Other Services 1,188 1,789 2,755 4,261 5,168 5,494 5,364 5,439
Government 8,706 12,687 16,375 18,415 20,790 22,218 22,482 22,166
   Total Service Producing 35,459 48,826 66,266 85,764 107,137 115,366 112,064 112,799

A perusal of the chart shows the dramatic downturn has really occurred since 1980. Goods producing jobs have declined by 6.3 million in the last 30 years, while service jobs have grown by 46.5 million. Who would want to get their hands dirty on an assembly line when they could shuffle papers, invent CDOs, MBOs, and CDSs, create financial models to destroy the world, bribe rating agencies, file frivolous lawsuits, teach Keynesianism, or use the 60,000 page IRS code to help GE pay no taxes on their $14 billion of income. Alan Greenspan and many other “thought leaders” declared that America could succeed through its ingenuity and creative thought process. The rest of the world could handle the messy business of building things. So goes the hubris of an empire that has peaked. To get a clearer view of the conversion from a productive society to a consumption society, converting the above chart to a percentage basis is useful.

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2010 Mar-11
Total Employment 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mining 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Construction 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 5.5% 4.3% 4.2%
Manufacturing 27.7% 25.1% 20.7% 16.2% 13.1% 10.1% 8.9% 8.9%
   Total Goods Producing 34.5% 31.2% 26.8% 21.7% 18.7% 16.2% 13.7% 13.7%
Trade, Transport, Utilities 20.4% 19.9% 20.3% 20.7% 19.9% 19.4% 19.0% 19.0%
Information 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
Finance 4.8% 5.0% 5.6% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8%
Professional & Business Services 6.9% 7.4% 8.3% 9.9% 12.6% 13.0% 12.9% 13.1%
Education & Health Serv. 5.6% 6.4% 7.8% 10.0% 11.5% 13.3% 15.1% 15.2%
Leisure & Hospitality 6.4% 6.7% 7.4% 8.5% 9.0% 9.8% 10.0% 10.1%
Other Services 2.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2%
Government 16.1% 17.9% 18.1% 16.8% 15.8% 16.1% 17.3% 17.0%
   Total Service Producing 65.5% 68.8% 73.2% 78.3% 81.3% 83.8% 86.3% 86.3%

In 1961 America was a well balanced economic powerhouse. Goods production accounted for 34.5% of all jobs, with manufacturing making up 27.7% of all jobs. Goods production now accounts for a pitiful 13.7% of all jobs in the country. The slack was picked up by financial analysts, accountants, lawyers, tax specialists, and bankers. They surged from supporting roles in a production society with 11.7% of the jobs in 1961 to the dominant big dogs today, with 18.9% of the jobs. The rest of the slack was taken up by teachers, school administrators, nurses, cabana boys and waitresses as they surged from 12% in 1961 to 25.3% of all jobs today. There is one problem with this shift. We have millions more educators, but our school systems churn out millions of functionally illiterate non-critical thinking drones. We have millions more healthcare professionals and are the most obese, unhealthy nation on earth even though we spend more per person than any other country. A country that employs one quarter of their workers in jobs that do not increase the wealth of the country is a country in decline. This shift has also pushed people into lower paying jobs.

1965 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2010 Mar-11
Total Private Industry $2.63 $3.40 $6.85 $10.20 $14.02 $17.43 $19.07 $19.30
Mining $2.87 $3.77 $8.97 $13.40 $16.55 $20.97 $23.83 $24.68
Construction $3.23 $4.74 $9.37 $13.42 $17.48 $20.95 $23.22 $23.36
Manufacturing $2.49 $3.23 $7.15 $10.78 $13.55 $17.26 $18.61 $18.90
   Total Goods Producing $2.63 $3.52 $7.66 $11.46 $15.27 $18.67 $20.28 $20.48
Trade, Transport, Utilities $2.94 $3.65 $7.04 $9.83 $13.31 $15.78 $16.83 $16.99
Information $4.47 $5.25 $9.47 $13.40 $19.07 $23.96 $25.86 $25.99
Finance $2.38 $3.07 $5.82 $9.99 $14.98 $19.64 $21.49 $21.63
Professional & Business Serv. $3.28 $4.04 $7.22 $11.14 $15.52 $20.15 $22.78 $23.10
Education & Health Services $2.12 $2.88 $5.93 $10.00 $13.95 $18.11 $20.12 $20.45
Leisure & Hospitality $1.17 $1.82 $3.98 $6.02 $8.32 $10.41 $11.31 $11.38
Other Services $1.25 $2.01 $5.05 $9.08 $12.73 $15.42 $17.08 $17.23
   Total Service Producing $2.63 $3.34 $6.43 $9.72 $13.62 $17.11 $18.81 $19.05
Consumer Price Index 31.50 38.80 82.40 130.70 172.20 207.34 218.06 221.31

The insidious effects of Federal Reserve generated inflation can be seen in the above chart. The BLS Establishment data going back to 1965 reveals much about the hidden impact of inflation over time. In 1965 the average hourly wage was $2.65. Back then, Americans put in a full work week, averaging 38.6 hours per week. The average American was making $101.52 per week. This was enough for a family to live comfortably on with only one spouse working. Fast forward to today and we have an average wage of $19.30 per hour and work week of 33.4 hours. This yields an average weekly pay of $644.62. It is also necessary for most households to have two working spouses to make ends meet. I added the government reported CPI at the bottom of the chart to provide some perspective on our 50 years of middle class wage compression. Applying the change in CPI since 1965 to the change in average weekly earnings provides the clearest view of what has been done to our country by the Federal Reserve and the government/corporate oligarchy. It would have taken weekly wages of $713.25 to have kept up with inflation since 1965. The average worker today is making 10% less than they did in 1965, on an inflation adjusted basis.

Wages in the service industries fell behind by even more, with the exception of bankers, doctors and teachers. The finance sector wages and the healthcare/education sector wages are 25% higher than their inflation adjusted wages in 1965. You reap what you sow. The country has decided that bankers, doctors, and teachers are relatively more important to our economy than people who make products, create wealth, and increase the productive capacity of the country. Any impartial outcome based assessment of these choices would conclude these choices have been an unmitigated failure.

The financial/ banking sector has peddled debt to the masses that didn’t realize their standard of living has been declining for 50 years, and blew up the worldwide financial system through their greed and fraudulent business practices. We spend more per child on education than any country in the world and test scores are lower than they were 40 years ago. Our children graduate high school with no critical thinking skills and the inability to decipher propaganda from truth. We spend more per person on healthcare than any other country, but obesity, diabetes, and heart disease are rampant. Administrative bureaucracy and vast amounts of rules and regulations consume billions in these sectors of our economy. The simple art of creating and producing things that other people need or want has been cast aside by a country who thought they could borrow and spend their way to long-term prosperity.

So, here we find ourselves 18 months into a “recovery” and the country has added 1.3 million jobs in the last year. We’ve added 529,000 lawyers, accountants, consultants and tax specialists. We’ve added 420,000 teachers, nurses and administrators. We’ve added 193,000 waitresses and hotel busboys. And we’ve added 238,000 Wal-Mart clerks. Our well balanced economy is back in gear. What could go wrong?

The truth is that the country remains in a 50 year death spiral of bad choices, delusion and fraud, created to benefit the few at the expense of the many. The average American wallows in a reality of low wages and high debt. Some of this reality has been self inflicted. Willful ignorance is a choice. Educating yourself to the truth is available to every American. Spending less than you make is something everyone can do. But, at the end of the day, the 1% at the top of the food chain controls the levers in this country. While the average American has fallen behind over the last 50 years, the ultra-wealthy elite have prospered.   The top 1% takes home 25% of the national income and control 40% of the financial wealth in the country. Their lives have improved considerably. Twenty-five years ago, the ruling elite “earned” 12% of the national income and controlled 33% of the financial wealth. These are the people who control the message. They own the mainstream media. They run the Wall Street banks. They control the Federal Reserve. They write the laws and the tax code. They control the politicians like puppets on a string. An economic system based upon debt and Federal Reserve generated inflation benefits these chosen few, while destroying the middle class of America. We’ve chosen this path and are destined to experience the same fate as Spain, the Dutch, and Britain.