Author: Administrator

LAND OF THE SETTING SUN

The linear thinkers that dominate the mainstream media and the halls of power in Washington D.C. are assessing the series of disasters in Japan without connecting the dots of history. Their ideological desire to convince people that things will go back to normal in short order flies in the face of the facts. It makes me wonder whether these supposed thought leaders lack true intelligence or whether their ideological biases convince them to lie. At the end of the day it comes down to wealth, power and control. If those in power were to tell the truth about the true consequences of demographics, debt, disasters, and devaluation, their subjects would revolt and toss them out. Before the multiple disasters struck Japan last week, the sun was already setting on this empire. The recent tragic events will accelerate that descent.  

 

Japanese Beetle Meet Windshield

 

Smart financial minds have been expecting a Japanese economic tsunami for the last few years. John Mauldin described Japan’s predicament in early 2010:

“I refer to Japan as a bug in search of a windshield. I am not so sure about the timing, however, as the economic and fiscal insanity that is Japan may be able to go on for longer than many think possible. But to me it is not a question of whether there will be a crisis, but when there will be one. This year? 2011? 2012? I doubt Japan makes it to the middle of the decade with a very serious and sad day of reckoning.

The downside to the continuation of running massive deficits is that when the break does come, it will be all the more painful and difficult to deal with as the debt mounts. If there is an upside, it is for the rest of the world to see what can happen to a developed country like Japan when massive deficits are allowed to pile up one after another. It will be a morality play writ large upon the walls, which cannot be dismissed.”

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard expected a 9.0 debt earthquake to strike Japan in 2010:

“Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting. This is the year when Tokyo finds it can no longer borrow at 1% from a captive bond market, and when it must foot the bill for all those fiscal packages that seemed such a good idea at the time. Every auction of JGBs will be a news event as the public debt punches above 225% of GDP. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii will become as familiar as a rock star.

Once the dam breaks, debt service costs will tear the budget to pieces. The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China’s yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbor race to the bottom.”

Mr. Pritchard was either wrong or early, depending upon your point of view.  

                                       JAPAN INTEREST RATES

Japan can still borrow for 10 years at 1%. Despite the highest government debt as a percentage of GDP on the planet at 225%, Japan has not felt the wrath of the bond vigilantes. Not only did the Yen not fall out of bed, but it soared to a post-war high against the USD last week after the earthquake/tsunami. Investors drove the value of the yen higher, anticipating a huge rebuilding program in Japan. Japanese financial institutions would need to convert foreign assets into yen to pay for damage claims and construction expenses, a process that would strengthen the currency. In anticipation, investors piled into yen, helping drive up its value. Central banks across the globe intervened and weakened the currency, for the time being. When the world comes to its senses, the Yen will weaken on its own.

Japanese Yen (JPY) to 1 US Dollar (USD)

Debt & Demographics

 

Japan is a one trick pony that just broke two legs and is waiting to be put down. They have experienced a two decade long recession. Their stock market is still 70% below its 1990 peak. They have no natural resources. They allow virtually no immigration. And their population is in a death spiral. The one and only thing they have going for them is their phenomenal ability to manufacture high quality products and export them to the rest of the world. The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan severely damaged their just in time manufacturing machine. A surging yen would destroy their export machine by making their products more expensive. Hundreds of high tech Toyota, Honda, and Sony factories are shut. Four hundred miles of ports and harbors have been wiped out. There are rolling blackouts, with one million households without electricity. Over 500,000 people are still homeless.

The short-term impact of this disaster will push Japan into recession. The rebuilding efforts over the coming years will create a positive GDP figure, but will not do anything to benefit Japan over the long haul. The billions designated to rebuild will be money not invested in a more beneficial manner. The linear thinkers conclude that over the long-term Japan will be OK. These people are ignoring the double D’s – Debt and Demographics. When Japan entered its two decades of recession and experienced the Kobe earthquake in 1995, its government debt stood at 52% of GDP. Today it stands at 225% of GDP. Twenty one years ago, the Japanese population was still relatively young, with only 12% of the population over 65 years old. The population of Japan peaked in 2004 and now is in relentless decline. Over 23% of the population is over 65 and the median age is 45 years old. For comparison, the median age in the U.S. is 37 years old, with only 13% over 65. The projection portion of the chart below paints a picture of death. The population of Japan is aging rapidly and will decline by 4.4 million, or 3.5% in the next ten years. 

Table 2.2 Trends in Population

The question I pose to the mainstream thinkers is, “How can a country with a rapidly aging population and nearly one quarter of its population over 65 years old generate the necessary dynamic enthusiasm for rebuilding a shattered country?” Youthful enthusiasm and hope for a brighter future is essential to any enormous rebuilding effort. Japan does not have it in them. News reports already indicate a lethargic and seemingly insufficient response by emergency workers. The devastation seems to have overwhelmed this aging country. The psychological impact of this type of natural disaster will likely have two phases. Psychology professor Magda Osman describes the expected human response:

“After a disaster, typically small communities become incredibly co-operative and pull together to help each other and start the rebuilding process. There’s an immediate response where people start to take control of the situation, begin to deal with it and assess and respond to the devastation around them. The problem is that we aren’t very good at calculating the long-term effects of disasters. After about two months of re-building and cleaning up we tend to experience a second major slump when we realize the full severity of the situation in the longer term. This is what we need to be wary of because this triggers severe depression.”

This would be the normal response of a traumatized populace. An aged populace is likely to experience worse depression and not bounce back from this tragedy. Japan is still the 10th most populated country on earth, with the 3rd largest economy. China just passed Japan to become the 2nd biggest economy in the world. India will pass Japan by 2012.

Table 2.1 Countries with a Large Population (2009)

Youthful countries across the world are gaining on Japan. The wisdom of the elderly doesn’t cut it in a global economy. Global competition is cutthroat. China, India and the other emerging Asian countries will take advantage of Japan’s misfortune by filling the hole left by Japanese manufacturers. The short-term issues of power, supply lines, and reconstruction are minor when compared to a mass die off of the Japanese population that will result in a population that is 25% smaller in 2050 than it is today. Demographics are a bitch. 

Figure 2.4 Proportion of Elderly Population by Country (Aged 65 years and over)

With the amount of debt hanging over the Japanese empire, it might be a good strategy to commit hari-kari. The non-thinking pundits on CNBC contend that since Japan hasn’t had any detrimental effects from running their debt to 225% of GDP, running it to 300% won’t be a problem. Reinhart and Rogoff studies concluded that once a country breaches the 90% level, growth slows and a debt crisis is likely to ensue. Japan has been stuck in a 20 year recession, as they chose Keynesian shovel ready projects, quantitative easing, currency manipulation, and covering up the true financial condition of its banks over accepting the consequences of a debt bubble. Remind you of anyone? The result is their real GDP is lower today than it was in 1995. The Paul Krugmans of the world would contend that they just didn’t spend enough.

 

The only reason Japan has not collapsed is due to its homogeneous population willing to buy virtually all of the debt issued by its government for the last twenty years and its prodigious ability to produce high quality products that the rest of the world wants. Japan has maintained a consistent trade surplus, and its government debt has been held mainly by its own people, with 95% of Japanese government bonds in the possession of Japanese, meaning the country was able to finance itself without depending upon fickle foreign investors who might prefer a return greater than 1%. This ain’t 1990. The savings rate of the Japanese population had already declined from 14% in 1990 to 2% by 2008. In a recent article, Mike Shedlock explained the situation prior to the recent devastation:

“The Government Pension Investment Fund, which oversees 117.6 trillion yen ($1.4 trillion), in September forecast that it would sell 4 trillion yen in assets in the business year ending March 31 to fund payouts. Sales by the fund, which helps oversee public pension funds for Japan’s 37 million retirees, come as the first of Japan’s baby boomers is set to turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments. Japan choices are to default on its debt, print money to fund interest on the debt, raise taxes effectively robbing savers of their money, or undertake huge spending cuts. The dilemma stems from years of Keynesian and Monetarist stupidity.”

The new tragedy will just accelerate the conversion of Japanese savers into forced spenders. Millions of Japanese savers will be forced to spend their savings on survival, as many have lost their jobs and businesses due to the monumental damage to northern Japan.

Setting Sun – Race to the Bottom

 

Traders figured out what must happen over the coming years. A large swath of Japanese insurers and companies will begin repatriating assets held in other currencies to begin the rebuilding effort at home, driving the value of the Yen higher. At a time of crisis a stronger Yen would severely damage Japan’s export based economy even further. Therefore, Central Banks around the world jointly intervened. The Bank of Japan spent Y2 trillion ($25 billion), while central banks across Europe contributed $5 billion and the Federal Reserve spent $600 million to push down the yen on Friday. The Bank of Japan is doing what they do best – printing money. Quantitative easing is an art form perfected by all Central Banks across the globe. Every disaster over the last twenty years, whether man made (wars, internet collapse, housing collapse, debt meltdown) or caused by nature, are met with the exact same solution – PRINT MONEY.

This method works until it doesn’t work. Japan’s central bank cannot reverse the demographics. From this point forward the population of Japan will be net sellers of government debt. Japanese insurance companies will be on the hook for $33 billion in claims. They will need to sell government bonds in order to make those payments. The World Bank has estimated the cost of rebuilding to be $235 billion. The government will need to borrow this money. At least 30% of its energy needs are off-line. It already imports 95% of its oil and coal. They will need to increase energy imports to make up for the nuclear energy shortage. Its positive trade balance was already in decline.  The clueless CNBC pundits can drone on about how this natural disaster will be good for the Japanese economy because of the substantial rebuilding program, but they are dead wrong. Japan is trapped, with no way out. They will need to issue hundreds of billions in new debt, which cannot be bought by its citizens, pension funds, or insurance companies. How many foreign investors will buy a 10 Year Japanese government bond paying 1%, knowing that Japan wants to weaken its currency? NONE. The only choices are to raise interest rates to attract buyers or print more money. With an already suffocating level of debt, they can’t allow interest rates to rise. They would choke on the interest.

The Bank of Japan will follow the same script as Ben Bernanke. They will print new Yen and buy the newly issued debt. What an original idea. Japan is caught in a debt stranglehold and demographic nightmare. Their currency will ultimately collapse like a nuclear reactor after a tsunami. When Japan defaults on their debt, the pain will be intense, as they will be throwing their own aged population under the bus. America, on the other hand, will throw the whole world under the bus when we default.

The Japanese own $886 billion of US Treasuries and have bought $256 billion of our debt since October 2008. Timmy Geithner will need to issue $1.5 trillion of new bonds per year. Japan will no longer be a buyer. They will be a seller. This will put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. Japan’s reconstruction needs will put pressure on commodity and energy prices. Production and supply problems for Japanese parts and goods are already creating problems for GM and other car companies in the U.S. Lack of supply leads to higher prices. The great earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown of 2011 will result in more quantitative easing in Japan and the U.S. This will result in even more inflation than we are experiencing today. Once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, the race to the bottom will accelerate. Gold will decide who wins the race. It has been a neck and neck race since 2001. I’m not sure it is a race anyone wants to win. But the destination is certain.

 

“The endeavors to expand the quantity of money in circulation either in order to increase the government’s capacity to spend or in order to bring about a temporary lowering of the rate of interest disintegrate all currency matters and derange economic calculation.” – Ludwig von Mises

LIVE LIBYA BLOG – COUNTDOWN TO WAR

UN vote is at 6:00 pm. Get ready for fireworks. Remember Colin Powell’s sage advice. “If you break it, you buy it.” Expect Iran to take advantage of our distracted naval forces.

Libya Live Blog – March 17

Libya Live Blog – March 17

By Al Jazeera Staff in
    		• on March 16th, 2011.

    [AFP Picture] Show oldest updates on top

    As the uprising in Libya continues, we update you with the latest developments from our correspondents, news agencies and citizens across the globe. Al Jazeera is not responsible for content derived from external sites.

    Blog: Feb17 – Feb18 – Feb19 – Feb20 – Feb21 – Feb22 – Feb23 – Feb24 – Feb25 – Feb26 – Feb27 – Feb28  – Mar1 – Mar2 –Mar 3 – Mar4 – Mar5  – Mar6 – Mar 7 – Mar8 – Mar9 – Mar10 – Mar 11 –   Mar12 – Mar13 – Mar14 – Mar15 – Mar16

    AJE Live Stream – Special Coverage: Libya Uprising – Twitter Audio – Tweeting revolutions

    (All times are local in Libya GMT+2)

    Timestamp:  10:51pm

    The head of the Benghazi-based Libyan National Council says that the opposition’s fighters will “stand firm” and not be deterred by Gaddafi’s threats, Reuters reports.

    Timestamp:  10:41pm

    Gaddafi did an interview with RTP, a Portuguese television station, this evening. In it, he said:

    The Security Council has not got the right to interfere in the internal affairs of any state. It would be a flagrant colonisation, without any justification. A serious and grave [inaudible]. This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too…”

    Asked what he means by ‘get crazy’, Gaddafi said:

    We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace.”

    Timestamp:  10:27pm

    Francois Fillon, the French prime minister, has added his voice to French chorus asserting that his government wishes to see immediate military action of the UN Security Council adopts a resolution on Libya. 

    Timestamp:  10:23pm

    A Libyan government spokesman says that any UN action against Libya would be “illegal and immoral”. Mussa Ibrahim, the spokesman, said:

    That would be illegal and immoral. It’s an armed rebellion. Any country would’ve fought against that. They are basing their decision on media reports.

    “This should not happen. It would harm the Libyan people. It would only strengthen our internal position because Libyans will have an external enemy and act as one.”

    Timestamp:  10:15pm

    AFP has released some excerpts from the draft UN resolution. They are reproduced below. The resolution:

    Demands the immediate establishment of a ceasefire and a complete end to violence and all attacks against, and abuses of, civilians;

    “Stresses the need to intensify efforts to find a solution to the crisis which responds to the legitimate demands of the Libyan people and notes the decisions of the Secretary-General to send his Special Envoy to Libya and of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union to send its ad hoc High Level Committee to Libya with the aim of facilitating dialogue to lead to the political reforms necessary to find a peaceful and sustainable solution;

     “Demands that the Libyan authorities comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, human rights and refugee law and take all measures to protect civilians and meet their basic needs, and to ensure the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance;

    “Authorises member states … to take all necessary measures … to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign
    occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory…;

    “Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;

    “Calls upon all member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, to provide assistance, including any necessary over-flight approvals, for the purposes of implementing” the no-fly zone.

    “Calls upon all member states, in particular states of the region, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, in order to ensure strict implementation of the arms embargo established (by Resolution 1970) to inspect in their territory, including seaports and airports, and on the high seas, vessels and aircraft bound to or from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya…

    “Deplores the continuing flows of mercenaries into the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and calls upon all member states to comply strictly with their obligations under (Resolution 1970) to prevent the supply of armed mercenary personnel to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya;

    “Decides that all states shall deny permission to any aircraft registered in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya or owned or operated by Libyan nationals or companies to take off from, land in or overfly their territory
    unless the particular flight has been approved in advance by the Committee, or in the case of an emergency landing;

    “Decides that all States shall deny permission to any aircraft to take off from, land in or overfly their territory, if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft contains items the
    supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited … including the provision of armed mercenary personnel, except in the case of an emergency landing;

    “Decides that the asset freeze imposed by (Resolution 1970) shall apply to all funds, other financial assets and economic resources which are on their territories, which are owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by the Libyan authorities … or by individuals or entities acting on their behalf or at their direction…

    “Affirms its determination to ensure that assets frozen pursuant to (Resolution 1970) shall, at a later stage, as soon as possible be made available to and for the benefit of the people of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.”

    Timestamp:  9:47pm

    AFP now quotes Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, as saying that military strikes could quickly follow after a UN security council resolution on Libya.

    Timestamp:  9:39pm

    Citing sources in the French government, AFP reports that air raids on Libyan army positions could begin as soon as the UN Security Council approves the use of force in Libya.

    “From the moment the resolution is adopted, military actions could begin in the hours that follow,” a diplomatic source said.

    Timestamp:  9:35pm

    The Associated Press reports that the closest known position of pro-Gaddafi ground forces to Benghazi is about 130km to the south.

    Timestamp:  9:26pm

    Here’s a screen grab from our live feed from Benghazi, where residents were both angry, but also in a celebratory mood, during and after Gaddafi’s speech.

    Timestamp:  9:17pm

    Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, says that this speech will likely affect the deliberations at the United Nations, emphasising the urgency that is required regarding action to safeguard civilians.

    He also opines that this will be seen as an “act of desperation”.

    Timestamp:  9:10pm

    Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley in Benghazi says that he travelled as far as 50km outside of Benghazi a few hours ago, and saw no evidence of any pro-Gaddafi forces approaching the city.

    Al Jazeera’s Anita McNaught in Tripoli reports that just a little while before his radio address to Benghazi, Gaddafi had spoken to Lebanese television saying that he would not be launching any military operation on Benghazi in the immediate term.

    She also reports that “it’s impossible to know how many people really love him … and how many people don’t want him at all” because security forces control the capital.

    Timestamp:  9:07pm

    Quite clear from that speech that Gaddafi says he intends to launch an operation on Benghazi tonight, and he would like the city taken by tomorrow. It is not immediately clear if this rhetoric, or if residents of the city are preparing for a possible assault.

    Timestamp:  9:02pm

    Those quotes below, of course, are from Muammar Gaddafi’s speech to the residents of Benghazi. Meanwhile, live pictures from Benghazi show massive crowds of people, chanting angry slogans in opposition to him.

    Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, says that there is a striking similarity between the statements made by Gaddafi and those made by Hosni Mubarak, the former Egyptian president, before he stepped down from power.

    Timestamp:  9:01pm

    They are finished, they are wiped out. From tomorrow you will only find our people. You all go out and cleanse the city of Benghazi. A small problem that has become an international issue. And they are voting on it tonight … because they are determined. As I have said, we are determined. We will track them down, and search for them, alley by alley, road by road, the Libyan people all of them together will be crawling out. Massive waves of people will be crawling out to rescue the people of Benghazi, who are calling out for help, asking us to rescue them. We should come to their rescue.

    “And I, Muammar Gaddafi, I will die for my people. With Allah’s help.

    “No more fear, no more hesitation, we are no longer reluctant. The moment of truth has come. If you see the cars with loudspeakers, destroy them, destroy their communications points that are spreading lies to you. Our children are the one’s who have destroyed these planes.

    “Just like Franco in Spain, who rolled into Madrid with external support. And they asked how did you manage to liberate Madrid? He said: ‘There was a fifth column, the people of the city.’ You are the fifth column within the city. This is the day on which we should liberate the city. We’ve been looking forward to that day. And tomorrow we will communicate again, and our cause will continue towards the south.

    “With our bare chests and heads we were confronting the dangers, facing the challenge, we did not initiate this violence, they started it. Of course, these words will have an impact on the traitors and infidels. Tonight they will panic and they will collapse.

    “You are capable of doing it. You are capable of achieving this. Let’s set our women and daughters free from those traitors.

    “God is great.”

    Timestamp:  8:46pm

    “Throw away your arms and find a way out of the city, and then you are saved. Those young men who have been taken advantage of – those infidels who are attempting to burn down our country to the ground, we should have no mercy on them. Those are the traitors, used and abused by those infidels from Qatar, unfortunately, Kuwait and other countries. How stupid can you become to be taken advantage of to that extent in Benghazi? Now you’re hungry and thirsty – we don’t have a natural disaster like the one that happened in Japan recently … but those infidels and traitors we promise to deal with. But the peaceful individuals of our people … should put down their weapons, there is no danger. They should not feel unsafe. There is not a single officer in Benghazi who did not call us, who have been warning us that they have been threatened by people like Zarkawi of being slaughtered.

    “Those who have been forced to follow those infidels … those also will be forgiven, granted amnesty, those are my children, and we should not leave those children to distort the image of our country after such a bright history. You have been forced. 

    One of the companions of the prophets who was tortured who was forced to say he did not believe in the Prophet Muhammad, and he could not face the Prophet afterwards. And the Prophet said don’t worry, God has forgiven you. Except those who were forced to utter things against their hearts. Even those of you who were forced to say things against myself, you are my children, and those in the special forces, the free officers of this country, you have sworn to defend the revolution of September. To fight the enemies. We are coming your rescue. And we will turn the sad situation into celebrations. We will wipe out this black page of our history.

    “To all those honest, brave officers, members of the revolutionary committees, university students, and female revolutionary committees, get ready to rebel against those traitors. The world has to see this tomorrow… that Benghazi is not a city of traitors.

    “Benghazi, I have liberated it myself earlier with my gun.

    “Those, the people who we have seen from one of the city to the other. Destroy any fortified points that you can get to, and if they run away, you take their weapons and you can occupy them.

    “The Jawazi tribes, those are brave tribes, we have been proud of. They have an honourable history before the whole world. Let the world witness one more good deed.

    “From tonight, those who decide to flee, you take their weapons, and you keep them safe.

    “Is it possible that each plane that flies crashes? Is that real? Can that happen?

    “There is a cemetary that has been bombed. Is that possible? How can you bomb a cemetary? You are bombing dead people. Your grandparents are buried there. …

    “These planes are supposed to be liberating Palestine, or confronting imperialism. Is it possible that our planes are fighting each other? Is it real?

    “All people should surround the traitors, to tell them that there is no way out.

    “What indicates to us about this current enemy, where are they, where are they hiding, in what room? They are cheating you to tell you that a plane has been able to hit Bab Al-Aziziya, where I live. It has been the centre of celebrations.”

    Timestamp:  8:43pm

    Gaddafi says he has received thousands of phone calls from families in Benghazi, asking to be rescued.

    He alleges that “they” want to make Libya “like Somalia”, adding that Libya is a rich country, but the flow of oil has been stopped.

    He has accused Qatar of fueling unrest in the country, and wanting Libya to “surrender it’s dignity” to Qatar.

    Gaddafi has also offered “amnesty” to “those who put down their weapons”, adding that people who are fighting have been “fooled”.

    He said that fighters should put down their weapons and they would be safe – if they did not, they would be treated as “enemies”.

    Timestamp:  8:41pm

    Gaddafi says that those fighting in Benghazi are criminals who have been released from prison – that they are “drug addicts” and “murderers” who have been released and handed weapons to fight.

    Timestamp:  8:40pm

    Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is addressing residents of Benghazi via radio and television now.

    Timestamp:  8:24pm

    More on that Gaddafi address: state television reports that his comments will be broadcast on both radio and television.

    Timestamp:  8:23pm

    Wondering what the complexities involved in setting up a no-fly zone are? Wonder no longer – Al Jazeera’s Jacqueline Head has prepared a handy guide.

    Timestamp:  8:22pm

    Andreas Oess, of Swiss Humanitarian Aid, says that if Benghazi were to fall, about 40,000-100,000 people would be expected to flood towards the border with Egypt. 

    “We are not ready” for those kinds of numbers, he said.

    Timestamp:  8:05pm

    Diplomats have told Al Jazeera that there has been agreement over most of the draft resolution, but there is still concern over one paragraph, reproduced below, which deals with taking “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians, short of an “occupation force”.

    Authorises member states that have notified the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the S-G, to take all necessary measures, notwithstanding paragraph 9 of Resolution 1970, to protect cilivians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamarhiya, including Benghazi, while excluding an occupation force and requests the member states concerned to inform the S-G immediately of the measures they take pursuant to the authorisation conferred by this paragraph which shall immediately reported to the security council.

     

    Timestamp:  8:03pm

    AFP reports that Muammar Gaddafi is to address the people of Benghazi, according to state television.

    Timestamp:  8:01pm

    Jay Carney, the White House spokesperson, says the US is acting with “urgency” on the situation in Libya.

    We are very concerned about the situation in Libya and the violence that is being perpetrated by the Gaddafi regime against its people. We are acting with a great sense of urgency together with our international partners to take the kinds of actions that we believe will protect Libyan citizens and move towards a
    situation where Gaddafi is no longer in power.”

    Timestamp:  7:51pm

    The UN Security Council session has been adjourned until 2200GMT, when ambassadors will go straight into a vote, Benedict Moran, an Al Jazeera producer in New York, reports.

    Timestamp:  7:21pm

    The official Jana news agency reports that Libya is warning it could target air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean if a foreign military intervention is staged.

    Meanwhile, Russia says that it still has unanswered questions regarding the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya.

    “What type of control mechanisms … does it have? Who will be implementing it, by what means, in what format?,” foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich demanded.

    Timestamp:  7:11pm

    Mark Lyall Grant, the UK’s ambassador to the United Nations, says that the UN Security Council has scheduled a vote on a resolution for 2200GMT (6pm local time in New York), Reuters reports.

    Timestamp:  7:09pm

    A UN draft resolution to be discussed in New York today by the UN Security Council must authorise action against Libya, “including a no-fly zone”, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, says.

    Our goal in the Security Council today is to convince the Security Council  to authorise more actions, including a no-fly zone, but other actions as well, and then to see how many countries are willing to actually do what the Security Council has authorised us to do.”

    Timestamp:  7:05pm

    Muammar Gaddafi is likely to “cause trouble” for neighbouring countries if he is allowed to stay in power, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, says. During a televised question & answer program with Tunisians, she said:

    Tunisia knows very well that if Gaddafi does not go, he will most likely cause trouble for you, for Egypt and for
    everybody else. That is just his nature. You know, there are some creatures that are like that.”

    Timestamp:  6:37pm

    At least two Arab states have said they will participate in a no-fly zone over Libya, the Arab League says.

    Yahya Mahmassani, the bloc’s envoy to the United Nations, said that the United Arab Emirates and Qatar “may be” among those participating.

    Timestamp:  6:25pm

    The United States has joined France, Britain and Lebanon in pressing for timely approval of the UN Security Council’s draft resolution on intervention in Libya, and it appears that the United States is now pushing for additional measures to a no-fly zone to be adopted, including possible strikes against ground and sea targets to protect civilians.

    This would be a change in the policy the US has been adopting so far, when it has urged caution in even advocating a no-fly zone.

    Timestamp:  6:21pm

    Egypt says that it will not intervene militarily in Libya. Responding to Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state’s, comments earlier about possible “Arab involvement” in military action, Menha Bakhoum, an Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters:

    Egypt will not be among those Arab states. We will not be involved in any military intervention. No intervention, period.”

    Timestamp:  6:16pm

    The Pentagon has voiced “concern about conducting military operations inside Libya”.

    “It would be logical if one of [US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’] concerns about a no-fly zone is the element of attacking Libyan air defenses, then an option of air strikes would be pretty similar,” Colonel David Lapan, a spokesman, said, adding that there was concern regarding the conduct of such operations.

    Timestamp:  5:44pm

    Consultations on the draft UN Security Council resolution in New York have just begun. 

    Timestamp:  5:38pm

    US State department official William Burns says the opposition Libyan National Council may set up an office in Washington DC, the American capital.

    Timestamp:  5:34pm

    New York-based rights group Human Rights Watch warns of “atrocities” if Benghazi is taken by forces loyal to Gaddafi.

    Fred Abrahams, a special advisor to the group, says:

    Our main concern is the extreme violence and potential for retribution by Gaddafi’s forces if he succeeds in retaking the area. This is a clarion call given the potential for very grave and very widespread abuses if he retakes Benghazi.

    “He [Gaddafi] won’t hesitate to use violence against this rebellious city … we’re simply saying that Benghazi and the eastern cities face the risk of serious violations, perhaps even atrocities.

    “We know that the rebels in Benghazi are better armed and more professional, not like the other young men who ran to the front. We know the people who started this will stay until the end, but people are deeply afraid. They know Gaddafi and they know this kind of rebellion can only end in victory or defeat.”

    Donatella Rovera, an Amnesty International research in Tobruk, says that is been impossible to contact residents of Ajdabiyah, the site of fierce clashes, on Thursday.

    I’ve talked to people who have recently left Ajdabiyah and who say that the situation there is extremely tense. They are scared, there were hits around the town.”

    Timestamp:  5:32pm

    The possible direct involvement of Arab nations in any international military intervention in Libya is currently being discussed, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, says during a press conference in the Tunisian capital, Tunis. 

    Timestamp:  5:29pm

    Opposition fighters in Benghazi say they have shot down two warplanes piloted by officers loyal to Gaddafi. Essam Gheirani, a spokesperson, said that one was shot down near Benina airport, and the other in the Buatani area, on the outskirts of the city.

    Earlier in the day, Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley reported that he went to the area where opposition fighters said they had shot down one of the planes, and could find no trace of it.

    Timestamp:  5:23pm

    Al Jazeera’s Scott Heidler in New York reports that the United Nations Security Council is still discussing developments in Afghanistan, with deputy ambassadors present. The formal, closed-door consultations on Libya have not yet begun.

    Timestamp:  5:18pm

    You can watch that ongoing hearing with William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, live here.

    Timestamp:  5:15pm

    A high-level panel of the African Union is due to hold a meeting on Saturday in, Nouakchott, the Mauritanian capital, to discuss development in Libya. The five-member heads of state committee of the AU will “determine the modalities of the implementation of its mandate”, according to an AU statement. 

    Timestamp:  5:11pm

    More from that continuing statement from US Undersecretary of State William Burns. He says that there is a “danger of [Gaddafi] returning to terrorism and violent extremism” if he suceeds in his battle against opposition forces.

    Timestamp:  5:06pm

    General Norton Schwartz, the chief of the US air force, says that imposing a no-fly zone over Libya would “not be sufficient” to reverse the advance of Muammar Gaddafi’s forces on opposition strongholds.

    Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, he said that it could take “upwards of a week” to set up a no-fly zone.

    He said that if the US were to get involved in international efforts to set up the no-fly zone, aircraft based in Europe and in the United States would be use, but some resources currently being used in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would also be used. 

    Timestamp:  5:02pm

    Reuters reports that France wants the UN Security Council to vote on a resolution authorising a no-fly zone, according to Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to the UN.

    I would say that we are asking for a vote at 6:00pm [2200 GMT]. You know the United Nations, it can drift but we are going to ask for a vote at 6:00pm.”

    Members of China’s delegation to the UN have told Al Jazeera that they, too, will be looking for consensus to be reached today, though they did not say if they would now be back the imposition of a no-fly zone, a step they had expressed concern over earlier.

    Timestamp:  5:00pm

    Opposition fighters in the western city of Zintan (120km southwest of Tripoli) say they are bracing for an attack by forces loyal to Gaddafi. 

    A witness told AFP:

    According to the fighters, forces loyal to Kadhafi are trying to encircle Zintan. There are troop movements around the north and southwest. They expect a big attack on the city. I heard no gunfire this morning. They say they blocked the main column [of tanks] during the night. 

    “Yesterday there was major fighting about 20 kilometres southwest of  Zintan. It lasted a good part of the night. According to fighters, there were very heavy weapons.” 

    Timestamp:  4:50pm

    Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, has proposed a strengthening of sanctions on Libya, while US Undersecretary of State Burns says that the US wants “an active Arab partnership” regarding further steps in Libya.

    Timestamp:  4:48pm

    William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State has warned that Muammar Gaddafi’s forces are making “significant” gains. He was speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

    Gaddafi’s forces have made significant strides o the ground. I believe they are only about 160km from Benghazi right now.” 

    Timestamp:  4:31pm

    William Hague, the UK’s foreign minister, says that the United States proposed a strengthening of the UN security council resolution during deliberations yesterday.

    Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, says that a no-fly zone is one of a “range of actions”, but that it has “inherent limitations in terms of protection of civilians at immediate risk”.

    Timestamp:  4:30pm

    NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says that the military alliance is not seeking to “intervene in Libya”, but wishes to be prepared if action is needed. 

    Timestamp:  4:28pm

    More on that statement regarding a possible ceasefire. The Jana state news agency says:

    The provisional general committee [ministry] of defence has decided to halt military operations against the armed terrorist bands from midnight on Sunday [2200 GMT] … to give a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from a general amnesty.”

    Timestamp:  4:27pm

    Residential areas in Ajdabiyah are coming under continued heavy aerial bombardment, Reuters reports, citing witnesses speaking to satellite television networks.

    Timestamp:  4:22pm

    Al Jazeera’s James Bays in Tobruk has the latest:

    No-one really knows which way Gaddafi’s forces will go next. Ajdabiyah still has fighting taking place around it. We know that there’s fighting in terms of air strikes now on Benghazi … that suggests that Gaddafi’s forces are going to make their way along the coast. But they have another option, there is a road that goes straight from Ajdabiyah right here to Tobruk. It is, if you drive it, about 4 hours of desert road, no towns along it at all, so no really early warning for the opposition if Gaddafi’s forces take that road. 

    “It’s a road or a route … that’s certainly been used in history. In the second World War, that’s where Rommel’s Panzer tanks came along. So I think it is a possibility that he may try to cut off all of the rebel-held towns along the coast line. The main reason for doing that … here in Tobruk, we’re very close to the Egyptian border, and I think Gaddafi would like nothing better than to close that border, because that closes the supply line to the opposition forces. 

    Asked how Gaddafi has managed to make gains so far, Bays said:

    Well, what’s he’s done with most of these towns and places that he’s gone through, is that he’s basically frightened the people into submission. He’s gone to a place like Ajdabiyah and he’s used bombardment at the edge of the town, and then frightened the people into submission in places like Brega and then moved on to the next place. 

    “Will he do that in Benghazi? Already the air strikes have started around Benghazi, and I can tell you that both here and in Benghazi, the opposition politicians are very upbeat, the opposition military commanders, they say that the big cities are different and they’ll fight him off.”

    Timestamp:  4:17pm

    AFP, quoting the state news agency Jana, says that the Libyan army will halt military operations from Sunday in order to give opposition fighters a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from an amnesty.

    More on this report as and when it comes through.

    Timestamp:  4:00pm

    That statement from NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen:

    It is absolutely outrageous to see the Libyan regime systematically attack its own civilian population. These acts may amount to crimes against humanity.” 

    Timestamp:  3:53pm

    The attacks by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi on civilians may be “crimes against humanity”, NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says, according to the AFP news agency.

    Timestamp:  3:51pm

    More on the airstrikes in Benghazi, from an opposition spokesman.

    We have no evidence that any of the strikes caused any damage. It seems to us like a warning, a challenge to the international community.”

    He said one of the raids struck near Benina airport, but that airport officials told him no damage had been incurred. Another strike hti Buatani, to the city’s east, and a third in the northwest. The fourth target was near the town of Qaminis, about 50km south of the city.

    Timestamp:  3:49pm

    A government spokesman says that Libyan military operations in Misurata will be completed by tomorrow.

    Mussa Ibrahim, the spokesman, said:

    It’s almost entirely under control. This is the final stage. It should be over by tomorrow morning.”

    Timestamp:  3:48pm

    Muammar Gaddafi says that his forces are set to regain control over the opposition-held towns of Misurata and Benghazi, Al Arabiya television reports.

    Gaddafi said that the battle for Misurata will be decided today, while Benghazi would fall without fighting, the satellite television channel says.

    Timestamp:  3:45pm

    The statement from NATO chief Rasmussen:

    Time is of the essence, time is rapidly running out, but I don’t think it’s too late. Very much will depend on the UN Security Council decision. 

    “I can imagine the international community and the United Nations standing strongly together behind the Libyan people if the weakened regime continues to attack its own people.”

    Timestamp:  3:44pm

    Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s secretary-general, has warned that the UN Security Council must act quickly to agree a resolution on Libya, as “time is running out” to stop Muammar Gaddafi from prevailing over opposition fighters.

    Timestamp:  3:42pm

    Essam Gheriani, a spokesman for pro-democracy fighters in Benghazi, says Gaddafi’s troops are “no where near Benghazi”. He says that pro-Gaddafi troops have approached the oil town of Zueitina, but that they “have been surrounded by the revolutionary forces and are being dealt with”.

    Timestamp:  3:33pm

    Al Jazeera’s James Bays reports with the latest from the eastern rebel-held town of Tobruk:

    There have been fresh air strikes we understand in the last few minutes in Benghazi. One of those airstrikes, another one, taking place on the main airport there. And we’re hearing this time from our team that were there … that there have been casualties this time.

    “The opposition are claiming that they’ve made some successes as well, they’re claiming that they’ve shot down a MiG aircraft. I have to say that our correspondent Tony Birtley has been to the scene where this MiG aircraft is supposed to have been shot down, and he can find no sign of it at all.”

    Asked about the situation in Tobruk, he said:

    It is a long way away, but I think they are still concerned, and they’re concerned because Gaddafi’s forces in the last few days have been pounding Ajdabiyah. Now that is the gateway to Benghazi, but it’s also the gateway to Tobruk, because there’s another road that goes through the desert that goes … to here. And there is some suggestion that possibly one of the things that Gaddafi might consider is to try and seal off the whole of this peninsula by taking that road. Not actually going into Benghazi, but sealing off Benghazi and the other cities along the coast and possibly even closing the border.

    “I spoke a short time ago to a Major-General who has come back from the front line, and he says that … they are prepared in Benghazi, but they’re also prepared here, because they know that that is one possible option of Gaddafi to send forces this way and then to try and encircle all of the rebel troops.

    “There’s a very defiant mood here, and a lot of support for those opposed to Gaddafi. But you go out on the streets, you go to the edge of town … and really no evidence of any defences at all that I could see, right at the edge of the town in the last few hours, we went out there to the airport, which is on the very edge of the town, that’s the way Gaddafi’s forces would come if they came all the way to Tobruk. And there were just a few fighters, one of them couldn’t have been more than about 12 years old … so not strong defences.

    “And I can tell you that when you speak to the people here, they say they’re winning, they say they’re beating back Gaddafi. Then you ask them the question should the international community do more, and they say ‘Yes, we’re all going to die if they don’t help’. So very contradictory answers to those questions. 

     

    Timestamp:  3:19pm

    Al Jazeera’s James Bays in Tobruk reports that fresh air strikes have taken place in Benghazi in the last few minutes, with the airport being targetted in one of the attacks. Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley in Benghazi says that there have been casualties, though the exact numbers are unclear at this early stage.

    Timestamp:  3:02pm

    William Hague, the UK’s foreign minister, says there is now nothing holding the US back on supporting calls for a no-fly zone over Libya, Reuters reports.

    Timestamp:  3:00pm

    Aid agencies say that there are more Libyan families fleeing the country’s east into Egypt than before, but that there is still not a major outflow.

    Sybella Wilkes, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) told Reuters:

    We’re seeing higher numbers of Libyans going out. Some are leaving Benghazi saying they fear it might be bombed and the road to the border might be blocked.” 

    Marcal Izard, a spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), said there is “no major movement of displaced” people towards the border.

    Timestamp:  2:43pm

    Libyan state television reports that forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi have recaptured Zueitina, a major oil terminal, and are advancing towards the outskirts of Benghazi.

    There is no immediate confirmation of this report.

    Timestamp:  2:41pm

    Residents of the western town of Misurata say they are preparing for a new attack by pro-Gaddafi forces.

    Saadoun, a Misurata resident, told the Reuters news agency:

    There were two more rounds of shelling last night. But things are quiet so far. We are hearing that tanks are moving … We believe they will attack the city again. We are not sure if they will do it right now or if they will wait for more reinforcement from Tripoli, especially after their defeat yesterday.”

    Timestamp:  2:11pm A senior hospital official told The Associated Press that 30 people have been killed since Tuesday night in fighting for the gateway to rebel-held territory. 

    Libya’s opposition battled to keep Gaddafi’s forces at the city of Ajdabiya on Thursday, hoping for help from the UN Security Council before his tanks and troops break through. 

    The official said at least 80 were hurt and hospitalised and many more of the wounded could not reach the hospital. He spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of official retaliation. 

    Gaddafi’s rapid advance on the rebels appears to have spurred the United States to leave behind weeks of doubts about a no-fly zone in Libya, and start pushing for broader UN authorisation for international air, sea and land forces. Timestamp:  1:40pm Libyan state television said on Thursday that forces loyal to Gaddafi had recaptured the western city of Misurata, but residents and rebels in the city denied the report.      State television said the armed forces had retaken control of Misurata and it was now being “sterilised from those criminal armed gangs”. 

    But three residents told the Reuters news agency the rebels still controlled the city.

    “This [state TV] is not true. They are lying. Misurata is quiet and there is no sound of any bombing,” resident Mohamed said.

    Timestamp:  1:35pm Fighting between Libyan rebels and Gaddafi’s troops near the eastern town of Ajdabiyah killed at least 30 women, children and elderly men, according to reports.      Libyan rebels have been trying to halt Gaddafi’s troops’ push towards the insurgent capital of Benghazi. Timestamp:  1:23pm

    Libyan State TV says gunfire and explosions are being heard at the airport near Benghazi.

    Timestamp:  1:21pm

    At least 30 people are dead in hospital in the eastern Libyan town of Ajdabiyah, according to reports.

    Timestamp:  1:18pm

    Conflicting reports: Libyan State TV is reporting that Gaddafi’s forces are in control of the western city of Misurata. However, rebel fighters deny the report, saying they are still in control of the city.

    Timestamp:  12:00pm Gaddafi fighter jets have bombarded Benina airport, 10km south of Benghazi city, Al Jazeera’s correspondent reports. Timestamp:  10:00am On the move and on a mission to crush the opposition – Libyan forces loyal to Gaddafi head east. 

    Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley has the latest on the uprising:

       Timestamp:  9:15am

    Medical sources in Misurata told Al Jazeera that at least 80 members of Gaddafi’s forces were killed during yesterday’s fighting. 

    Timestamp:  7:40am In Benghazi – Libya’s rebel-controlled second largest city – opposition protesters are buoyed by news that fighters in a nearby town have beaten back an offensive by Gaddafi’s forces.
    While some in the city are apprehensive that the war may still come to their door step, they remain defiant, vowing to fight on to defeat Gaddafi’s troops.
    Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley reports from Benghazi:

    Timestamp:  6:12am Gaddafi said his forces would fight a “decisive battle” on Thursday, as diplomats backing a no-fly zone to rein him in pressed for a vote at the UN Security Council. Timestamp:  3:30am

    Al Jazeera’s Scott Heidler said that Rice’s call for “a resolution that should go beyond a no-fly zone, is something that we haven’t heard before.

    “We are hearing from diplomatic sources that change came over night on Tuesday when an initial draft resolution presented and discussed yesterday afternoon.

    “She came into the discussions today [Wednesday] with a different point of view. And that was yes no-fly zone and even a step further beyond a no-fly zone.”

    Timestamp:  3:00am

    France, Britain and the United States have pressed for a UN Security Council vote on Thursday on a no fly zone to halt Muammar Gaddafi’s attacks on rebels.

    Council ambassadors met behind closed doors to debate the text for more than eight hours on Wednesday, and said they would return on Thursday morning.

    Timestamp:  1:53am

    The UN Security Council may need to take measures in Libya that go beyond a no-fly zone in Libya, the US envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday.

    Timestamp:  1:47am

    The US ambassador to the United Nations has said that the Security Council will continue the negotiations on Libya Thursday.

    “My hope that we are able to reach a serious resolution.”

    Timestamp:  1:29am

    The AFP news agency reported on Wednesday that the UN Security Council have reached an agreement on the text of a draft resolution on Libya, which will be put to a vote on Thursday, diplomats said.

    Timestamp:  1:00am

    Reuters news agency has reported that the Libyan army has set an ultimatum on Wednesday to clear Benghazi by 2200 GMT, Libyan television reported.

    A text on the screen of Al-Libya television addressed the residents of Benghazi saying:

    “The army is coming to support you and to cleanse your city from armed gangs.

    “It urges you to keep out by midnight of areas where the armed men and weapon storage areas are located.”

    TIDE OF 1,000 BODIES

    I don’t care how stoic and well organized the Japanese are. No one can be prepared for what is hitting them day after day. It is mentally overwhelming. I’m no phsychologist, but I would expect mass depression to sweep over their population. Their demographics are dramatically skewed toward older people. The country doesn’t have enough young people to overcome this devastation with the enthusiasm they showed in 1995 after the Kyoto earthquake. Their Debt to GDP was 90% in 1995. Today it is 200%. They don’t have the financial wherewithal to recover from this disaster. Japan’s economy will spiral downward. I believe this will be the tipping point for the far worse part of the Fourth Turning.

    Tide of 1,000 bodies overwhelms quake-hit Japan

    By JAY ALABASTER and TODD PITMAN, AP
    27 minutes ago
    news-general-20110312-AS.Japan.Earthquake

    TAKAJO, Japan — A tide of bodies washed up along Japan’s coastline, crematoriums were overwhelmed and rescue workers ran out of body bags as the nation faced the grim reality of its mounting humanitarian, economic and nuclear crisis Monday after a calamitous tsunami.

    Millions of people were facing a fourth night without water, food or heating in near-freezing temperatures in the devastated northeast. Meanwhile, a third reactor at a nuclear power plant lost its cooling capacity and the fuel rods at another were at least briefly fully exposed, raising fears of a meltdown. The stock market plunged over the likelihood of huge losses by Japanese industries including big names such as Toyota and Honda.

    A Japanese police official said 1,000 washed up bodies were found scattered Monday across the coastline of Miyagi prefecture. The official declined to be named, citing department policy.

    The discovery raised the official death toll to about 2,800, but the Miyagi police chief has said that more than 10,000 people are estimated to have died in his province alone, which has a population of 2.3 million.

    In one town in a neighboring prefecture, the crematorium was unable to handle the crush of bodies being brought in for funerals.

    “We have already begun cremations, but we can only handle 18 bodies a day. We are overwhelmed and are asking other cites to help us deal with bodies. We only have one crematorium in town,” Katsuhiko Abe, an official in Soma, told The Associated Press.

    In Japan, most people opt to cremate their dead, a process that, like burial, requires permission first from local authorities. But the government took the rare step Monday of waiving that requirement to speed up funerals, said Health Ministry official Yukio Okuda.

    “The current situation is so extraordinary, and it is very likely that crematoriums are running beyond capacity,” said Okuda. “This is an emergency measure. We want to help quake-hit people as much as we can.”

    Friday’s double tragedy has caused unimaginable deprivation for people of this industrialized country — Asia’s richest — which hasn’t seen such hardship since World War II. In many areas there is no running water, no power and four- to five-hour waits for gasoline. People are suppressing hunger with instant noodles or rice balls while dealing with the loss of loved ones and homes.

    “People are surviving on little food and water. Things are simply not coming,” said Hajime Sato, a government official in Iwate prefecture, one of the three hardest hit.

    He said authorities were receiving just 10 percent of the food and other supplies they need. Body bags and coffins were running so short that the government may turn to foreign funeral homes for help, he said.

    “We have requested funeral homes across the nation to send us many body bags and coffins. But we simply don’t have enough,” he told the AP. “We just did not expect such a thing to happen. It’s just overwhelming.”

    The pulverized coast has been hit by hundreds of aftershocks since Friday, the latest one a 6.2 magnitude quake that was followed by a new tsunami scare Monday. As sirens wailed, soldiers abandoned their search operations and told residents of the devastated shoreline in Soma, the worst hit town in Fukushima prefecture, to run to higher ground.

    They barked out orders: “Find high ground! Get out of here!” Several soldiers were seen leading an old woman up a muddy hillside. The warning turned out to be a false alarm.

    Search parties arrived in Soma for the first time since Friday to dig out bodies. Ambulances stood by and body bags were laid out in an area cleared of debris, as firefighters used hand picks and chain saws to clear an indescribable jumble of broken timber, plastic sheets, roofs, sludge, twisted cars, tangled powerlines and household goods.

    Helicopters buzzed overhead, surveying the destruction that spanned the horizon. Ships were flipped over near roads, a half-mile (a kilometer) inland. Officials said one-third of the city of 38,000 people was flooded and thousands were missing.

    In addition to the more than 2,800 people who have been confirmed dead, more than 1,400 were missing. Another 1,900 were injured.

    Japanese officials have refused to speculate on how high the death toll could rise, but experts who dealt with the 2004 Asian tsunami offered a dire outlook.

    “It’s a miracle really, if it turns out to be less than 10,000 (dead),” said Hery Harjono, a senior geologist with the Indonesian Science Institute, who was closely involved with the aftermath of earlier disaster that killed 230,000 people — of which only 184,000 bodies were found.

    He drew parallels between the two disasters — notably that many bodies in Japan may have been sucked out to sea or remain trapped beneath rubble as they did in Indonesia’s hardest-hit Aceh province. But he also stressed that Japan’s infrastructure, high-level of preparedness and city planning to keep houses away from the shore could mitigate their human losses.

    The Japanese government has sent 100,000 troops to lead the aid effort. It has sent 120,000 blankets, 120,000 bottles of water and 29,000 gallons (110,000 liters) of gasoline plus food to the affected areas. However, electricity will take days to restore.

    According to public broadcaster NHK, some 430,000 people are living in emergency shelters or with relatives. Another 24,000 people are stranded, it said.

    One reason for the loss of power is the damage several nuclear reactors in the area. At one plant, Fukushima Dai-ichi, three reactors have lost the ability to cool down, the latest on Monday. Explosions have destroyed the containment buildings of the other two reactors. Fuel rods at the third were fully explosed, at least briefly, on Monday.

    Operators were dumping sea water into all three reactors in a last-ditch attempt to cool their superheated containers that faced possible meltdown. If that happens, they could release radioactive material in the air.

    But Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the inner containment vessel holding the nuclear fuel rods at the reactor that experienced an explosion Monday was intact, allaying some fears of the risk to the environment. The containment vessel of the first reactor is also safe, according to officials.

    Still, people within a 12-mile (20-kilometer) radius were ordered to stay inside homes following the blast. AP journalists felt Monday’s explosion 25 miles (40 kilometers) away.

    Military personnel on helicopters returning to ships with the U.S. 7th Fleet registered low-level of radioactive contamination Monday, but were cleared after a scrub-down. As a precaution, the ship shifted to a different area off the coast.

    More than 180,000 people have evacuated the area around the plants in recent days.

    Also, Tokyo Electric Power held off on imposing rolling blackouts planned for Monday, but called for people to try to limit electricity use.

    Edano said the utility was still prepared to go ahead with power rationing if necessary. The decision reflected an understanding of the profound inconveniences many would experience.

    Many regional train lines were suspended or operating on a limited schedule to help reduce the power load.

    Japan’s central bank injected 15 trillion yen (US$184 billion) into money markets Monday to stem worries about the world’s third-largest economy.

    Stocks fell Monday on the first business day after the disasters. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average shed nearly 634 points, or 6.2 percent, to 9,620.49, extending losses from Friday. Escalating concerns over the fallout of the disaster triggered a plunge that hit all sectors. The broader Topix index lost 7.5 percent.

    Japan’s economy has been ailing for 20 years, barely managing to eke out weak growth between slowdowns. It is saddled by a massive public debt that, at 200 percent of gross domestic product, is the biggest among industrialized nations.

    Preliminary estimates put repair costs from the earthquake and tsunami in the tens of billions of dollars — a huge blow for an already fragile economy that lost its place as the world’s No. 2 to China last year.

    THE GATHERING STORM

    “Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed, if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not so costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no chance of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.” – Winston Churchill – The Second World War

    A butterfly flapped its wings in Tunisia creating a hurricane that is swirling across the globe, wreaking havoc with the existing social order and sweeping away old crumbling institutions and dictatorships. The linear thinking politicians, pundits and thought leaders have been knocked for a loop. They didn’t see it coming and they don’t know where it’s leading. An examination and understanding of history would have revealed that we have been here before. We were here in 1773. We were here in 1860. We were here in 1929. We are here again. The Fourth Turning has returned in its predictable cycle, just as Winter always follows Fall.

     

    Winston Churchill wrote the definitive history of World War II in 1948. His six volume history detailed the years from the end of World War I through the unconditional surrender of the Axis powers in 1945. Volume I in the series was The Gathering Storm. It covered the second half of the Unraveling and the first ten years of the last Fourth Turning Crisis period. The title fits perfectly with the mood and inevitability of what was destined to occur. All Fourth Turnings resemble Winter, with bitter cold options, biting winds of change, dark days, and destructive storms. The seasons cannot be averted. The Seasons of a year are predictable, as are the seasons of a human life. We’ve entered the Crisis (Winter) season of the latest Saeculum that began in 1946 and will climax sometime around 2025.

    “Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    The generations are aligned in such a way that an event, incident, or individual action that may have been disregarded or ignored ten years ago will now trigger a worldwide conflagration. The Boston Massacre occurred in1770 during Revolutionary Saeculum. Five colonists were slaughtered by British troops. The mood of the generations was not ready for a Crisis. It wasn’t until three years later that the Boston Tea Party ignited a spark that started a revolution. John Brown’s raid on Harper’s Ferry in 1859 was intended to start a revolution. The populace was not ready. One year later, the election of Abraham Lincoln lit the fuse on the most horrific war in modern history. America experienced a sharp depression in 1920-1921. The country did not spiral into a decade long downturn, culminating in a World War that killed 65 million people. The generational dynamic was not aligned in a way that would lead to that outcome. Instead, the roaring twenties commenced. On December 17, 2010 a man committed a seemingly inconsequential act that has ignited a worldwide firestorm.

    The spark that has enflamed the planet was struck by a 26-year-old Tunisian with a computer science degree named Mohamed Bouazizi, who unable to feed his family, was not allowed by his government to even get a permit to sell vegetables. Bouazizi publicly doused himself with gasoline, lit a match, and burnt not only his own body, but enflamed the consciousness of a world, and its inhabitants, being obliterated by the corrupt wealthy elites who rule the planet. In less than a month the brush fire started by this 26-year-old Tunisian had incinerated the despotic government of his country and forced its “president-for-life”, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to flee the country. The people’s coup in Tunisia, called the Jasmine Revolution, has sent shockwaves across the globe, spreading wildfires of freedom throughout the Arab world.  The firestorm started by Bouazizi has brought down Mubarak in Egypt and is lapping at the heals of Gaddafi in Libya. Tyrants throughout the world are quivering with fear. The mood of the people across the globe has turned dark and angry. The political class and media are persistently surprised by the reaction of citizens to events during the Fourth Turning.

    Historians William Strauss and Neil Howe documented their generational theory in the 1997 book The Fourth Turning. People who prefer blind ideology and believe human existence is a straight line of progress scorn their work as fantasy and pure prophecy. So called progressives misrepresent the theory as predicting the future because they refuse to accept the fact that large groups of human beings of a similar age and having common experiences react in similar predictable ways. It irritates those with an unwavering belief in human individuality. They prefer to ignore the numerous example of mass hysteria throughout history. In just the last 10 years we have experienced an internet boom and a housing boom that convinced millions of Americans to act  simultaneously in a foolish manner . The theory is so logical and measurable that even the most vacuous blond bubble head on Fox News should understand it.

    Strauss & Howe have been able to break Anglo-American history into 80 to 100 year (a long human life) Saeculums going back to 1435. Each Saeculum has four generations at different stages of their lives.  A turning is an era with a characteristic social mood, a new twist on how people feel about themselves and their nation.  It results from the aging of the generational constellation.  A society enters a turning once every twenty years or so, when all living generations begin to enter their next phases of life.  Like archetypes and constellations, turnings come four to a saeculum, and always in the same order. In 1997, Strauss & Howe knew when the next Fourth Turning would begin:

    The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    They did not predict events that would ignite the next Fourth Turning. It was how the generations reacted to the events that mattered. The generational constellation is now in the once every 80 year alignment that will lead to chaos, violent change, the sweeping away of the existing social order, and likely war. Strauss & Howe answered why this would happen fourteen years ago:

    “What will propel these events? As the saeculum turns, each of today’s generations will enter a new phase of life, producing a Crisis constellation of Boomer elders, midlife 13ers, young adult Millennials, and children from the new Silent Generation. As each archetype asserts its new social role, American society will reach its peak of potency. The natural order givers will be elder Prophets, the natural order takers young Heroes. The no-nonsense bosses will be midlife Nomads, the sensitive souls the child Artists. No archetypal constellation can match the gravitational power of this one – nor its power to congeal the natural dynamic of human history into new civic purposes. And none can match its potential power to condense countless arguments, anxieties, cynicisms, and pessimisms into one apocalyptic storm.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    I believe my generation is about to experience a rendezvous with destiny. Each generation’s life experiences have prepared them for this hour and the trials that await them. The mood of the country has shifted darkly into a crisis mode. The mainstream media pundits and progressive politicians try to put a positive spin on today’s events, when anyone with the ability to think can see that things will get severely worse in the next ten years. Trust in our institutions, politicians, corporate leaders, media and social order is disintegrating.

    It’s a Matter of Trust

    “An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    The initial spark that ignited this Fourth Turning was the collapse of the housing market, which began in 2005 and continues today. Home prices collapsed, the fraudulent mortgage loans blew up in the faces of the Wall Street banks that birthed them, and millions of delusional Americans lost their houses in foreclosure. The cascading impact of this implosion brought the American empire of debt to its knees. On September 18, 2008 the U.S. financial system came within hours of complete collapse, as described by Congressman Paul Kanjorski on CPAN:

    “On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic out there.

    If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.”

    The implosion of the financial system was created by the actions of the Wall Street financers that have been looting the country for decades. They created mortgage products (no doc, liar loans, Alt-A, negative amortization) designed to encourage people to commit fraud. They purposely promoted this massive fraud because they had perfected the art of derivatives. The issuers of these fraudulent mortgages bore none of the risk from their guaranteed default. They packaged them into MBOs and MBSs, bought AAA ratings from Moodys, and shilled them to pension managers, insurance companies, municipalities, states, and little old ladies. Then they bet against their own products with credit default swaps. Their greed and avarice was so extreme, they leveraged their own balance sheets 40 to 1 and then bought their own toxic waste. When their MBA created models proved to be defective, the entire house of cards collapsed. Strauss and Howe anticipated a financial catalyst related to immense levels of debt would trigger the next Fourth Turning:

    It is unlikely that the catalyst will worsen into a full-fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while.

    After the near collapse of the financial system in September 2008, the authorities took unprecedented actions to avert a Second Great Depression. Henry Paulson, the Goldman Sachs U.S. Treasury Secretary, who had warned his own staff that a Wall Street derivative disaster would happen, immediately reacted like a former Wall Street CEO. He convinced his Harvard MBA boss, George W. Bush, that the only way to save the country was to fork over $700 billion to the Wall Street banks that created the manmade disaster. When Congress initially voted down this banker bribe, Wall Street showed who was boss by crashing the market by 777 points in one day. The bought off politicians in Washington DC then towed the line and passed TARP.

    The two and one half years since September 2008 have set the stage for a far worse catastrophe. The Obama administration jammed an $800 billion pork filled stimulus bill down the throats of America, along with home buyer tax credits, loan modification programs, and a healthcare plan that will crush small businesses. The politicians, government bureaucrats, and mainstream media corporate mouthpieces proclaim that their wise and prompt actions averted a Second Great Depression. The government solutions used to “stabilize” the situation have wrought unintended consequences and planted the seeds of further pain and suffering to come. A summary of what has happened in the last few years is in order:

    • On September 18, 2008 the National Debt stood at $9.66 trillion. Today it stands at $14.16 trillion, a 47% increase in 2 1/2 years.
    • The country is running $1.5 trillion annual deficits and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
    • The States are running cumulative budget deficits of $130 billion in FY11 and expect deficits of $112 billion in FY12. This is leading to conflicts with unions, higher taxes and mass layoffs of government workers.
    • The working age population has risen by 5 million, while the number of employed Americans has declined by 6.5 million. The true unemployment rate http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts has risen from 12% to 22%.
    • In September 2008 there were 30.8 million Americans on food stamps. Today there are 44 million Americans on food stamps (14% of the U.S. population), a 43% increase in 2 1/2 years. The annual cost has risen by $37 billion, a 100% increase in 2 1/2 years.
    • Real inflation  http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts bottomed at 5% in early 2009, but has accelerated to 9% today, with further increases baked in the cake.
    • Gasoline prices bottomed out at $1.61 per gallon in January 2009 and have risen to $3.54 per gallon today, a 120% increase in just over two years.
    • Households have lost $6.3 trillion of real estate related wealth since the peak of the housing market. Home prices have fallen for six straight months.
    • Almost 3 million homes have been lost to foreclosure since 2007.
    • There are 11.1 million households, or 23.1% of all mortgaged homes, underwater on their mortgages today, with rates above 50% in Nevada, Arizona, California, and Michigan.
    • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the US government and have lost $170 billion of taxpayer funds so far. Losses are expected to reach $400 billion. Along with the FHA, they continue to prop up a dead housing market with more bad loans.
    • The Federal Reserve balance sheet in September 2008 consisted of $895 billion of US Treasury bonds. Today it totals $2.55 trillion of toxic mortgages bought from Wall Street banks and Treasury bonds being bought under QE2.
    • The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Dept. intimidated the FASB into allowing Wall Street banks to account for worthless mortgage and real estate loans as fully collectible. Magically, insolvent banks became solvent – on paper.
    • The Dow Jones was 11,700 in late August 2008 and today stands at 12,000. The Dow has risen 84% from its March 2009 low. The top 1% wealthiest Americans own 40% of all the stocks in America, so they are feeling much better.
    • In late 2007, a risk averse senior citizen could get a 5% return on a 6 month CD. Today, after two years of no increases in their Social Security payments, a senior citizen can “earn” .38% on a 6 month CD.
    • The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0% in order to allow the Wall Street banks to borrow for free and earn billions without risk.
    • Over 300 smaller banks have been closed by the FDIC, with losses exceeding $50 billion. There are another 900 banks on the verge of insolvency, with estimated future losses of $100 billion.
    • The Federal Reserve initiated QE2 in November 2010, purchasing $70 billion per month of  Treasury bonds and attempting to create a stock market rally. They have succeeded in creating a tsunami of energy, food, and commodity price inflation across the globe, sparking revolutions among the desperately poor in the Middle East.
    • Wall Street banks “earned” record profits of $19 billion in 2010 after nearly destroying the worldwide financial system in 2008 and raping the American taxpayer in 2009.
    • No Wall Street executive has been prosecuted for the fraudulent actions committed by their banks.
    • Wall Street banks handed out $43.3 billion in bonuses in 2009/2010 for a job well done. The average Wall Street employee received a $128,000 bonus in 2010. In 2008, the year they crashed the financial system, they still doled out $17.6 billion in bonuses.
    • The median household income in 2007 was $52,163. Today the median household income is $46,326, an 11% decline in three years. Real average weekly earnings are lower today than they were in 1971.

    It is clear from the list above that the oligarchic players that wield the power in this country have chosen to prop up their tottering structure of debt-created-wealth on the backs of the working middle class. The people who have been screwed and continue to be screwed are growing angry and distrustful, as anticipated by Strauss & Howe:

    “But as the Crisis mood congeals, people will come to the jarring realization that they have grown helplessly dependent on a teetering edifice of anonymous transactions and paper guarantees. Many Americans won’t know where their savings are, who their employer is, what their pension is, or how their government works. The era will have left the financial world arbitraged and tentacled: Debtors won’t know who holds their notes, homeowners who owns their mortgages, and shareholders who runs their equities – and vice versa.”

    The continuing foreclosure crisis has proven that the financial industry’s sole purpose in creating subprime loans, liar loans, Alt-A loans and packaging them into tranches with fake AAA ratings  to be sold off to whatever sucker they could find was to enrich themselves with no care about the future consequences. The owners of the debt can’t prove they own the debt. Lawsuits clog up the court system. Deadbeats occupy houses for longer than two years without making a mortgage payment. Wall Street has created so many complex confusing financial products in their greedy thirst for fees that Harvard MBAs can’t even figure out the mess they have created. The $1.4 quadrillion of outstanding derivatives is truly a weapon of mass worldwide destruction waiting to be triggered. The fraudulent actions of Wall Street, the lies told to the American people by government bureaucrats about the solutions needed, the overstep and obfuscation committed by Ben Bernanke, and the propaganda fed to the masses by the corporate mainstream have destroyed the remaining trust in our institutions. Distrust grows by the day, as Strauss and Howe foresaw in 1997:

    “As the Crisis catalyzes, these fears will rush to the surface, jagged and exposed. Distrustful of some things, individuals will feel that their survival requires them to distrust more things. This behavior could cascade into a sudden downward spiral, an implosion of societal trust.”

    The growing distrust of financial and governmental institutions was reflected in the angry and sometimes violent town hall meetings with Congressmen during the healthcare debate. An angry on-air rant by financial reporter Rick Santelli ignited the Tea Party movement that eventually swept dozens of candidates into office in a Republican landslide in the 2010 mid-term elections. Societal trust in promises made by politicians is ripping apart. The entitlement benefit promises can’t be kept. Senior citizen and government union beneficiaries are angry. Younger generations don’t want to be left with debt so older generations can have comfortable 25 year retirements. Taxpayers don’t want to pay higher taxes to support gold plated healthcare and pension plans for government union workers. The decades of compromise, denial, apathy and lethargy are over. The mood of the country has changed dramatically. Survival of the country is at stake.

    Volcanic Eruption

    “America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed. With savings worth less, the new elders will become more dependent on government, just as government becomes less able to pay benefits to them.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    The country has withstood the initial onslaught of this latest Fourth Turning. The Great Devaluation resulted in a 50% stock market crash and a 30% decline in home values. Rather than allowing home values to fall to their fair value, the government used tax credits and loan modification programs to prop up home prices. Rather than liquidating insolvent Wall Street banks in an orderly bankruptcy, the government and Federal Reserve chose to use accounting gimmicks and borrowed taxpayer funds to save those who had taken excessive risks and reaped hundreds of billions in profits. The government has systematically “adjusted” every economic statistic in order to paint the most optimistic view possible. Unemployment, inflation, government debt, and GDP are all manipulated in the most positive light.

    Many people understand that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. They understand that politicians have overpromised Social Security and Medicare benefits to the tune of $100 trillion. They understand that if you cover 30 million more people in your healthcare system, it will cost hundreds of billions more. They understand that mega-corporations have shipped their manufacturing jobs overseas, and they aren’t coming back. They understand spending $800 billion per year, policing the world, fighting two wars of choice, with hundreds of military bases across the globe is unsustainable. They understand that running $1.5 trillion deficits will eventually result in a collapse of the U.S. dollar. They understand that an individual or a country cannot borrow their way to prosperity. The U.S. government is essentially bankrupt and dependent upon Ben Bernanke’s printing press to keep up the appearance of solvency.

    Fingers of tension and instability run through every aspect of American society. Pressure is building beneath the surface. The last year and a half have proven to be a liquidity driven lull. The appearance of stability does not mean our situation has stabilized. The actions of those in power have created a vastly more dangerous scenario for the next decade. The volcano is erupting and the lava is flowing along the channels of distress, as described by Strauss & Howe:

    Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

    • Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
    • Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
    • Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
    • Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction 

    Strauss & Howe did not predict specific events that would occur during the next Fourth Turning. As trained historians and economists, they simply analyzed the environment created by our leaders over the last few decades. If the thought leaders in the country had not been blinded by their ideological biases, they would have seen that the next Fourth Turning Crisis would be channeled by un-payable debt obligations, reckless financial schemes, religious ideology, political corruption, class warfare, foreign conflicts, and terrorism. The molten ingredients are travelling along the channels outlined above. What happens next is anybody’s guess.

    The economic distress worsens for the average American every day. The recovery propaganda circulated by the power elite through the mass media is a fraud. Only those with wealth and power have recovered. The middle class sinks further into poverty and despair. Unemployment remains at Depression levels and the entire economic faux recovery rests with Ben Bernanke’s printing press. The only question that remains is whether the United States experiences a deflationary collapse or a hyper-inflationary collapse. The country is currently experiencing stagflation as the things we need (energy, food, clothing) inflate, while wages stagnate and our home values deflate. Bernanke and his minions at the Federal Reserve will choose inflation as their poison because it will allow their banker masters to pilage the remaining wealth of the middle class before the final collapse of the U.S. dollar.

    Social distress has manifested itself over the last year in Arizona as the illegal immigration issue has turned violent, with State government and Federal government in conflict. The social welfare net is being strained through the payment of billions in unemployment compensation, food stamps, and other welfare programs. When this net breaks, all hell will break loose in the decaying urban Mecca’s. Political distress is at historic levels as the Tea Party battles liberals and its own neo-con Republican establishment. States are refusing to implement the Federally mandated Obamacare. Governors are battling teacher’s unions, firemen unions, and police unions in an effort to regain control of their out of control budgets. The 2012 elections could prove to be a tipping point for the country.

    Military distress is already extreme, even before a major conflict is thrust upon the country. The two wars of choice in the Middle East have drained trillions from the treasury of a declining empire. The all volunteer military has been stretched to the breaking point. The multi-billion dollar high tech weaponry has proven useless against “terrorists” who fade into mountains until they can strike again. As revolution erupts across the Middle East, the U.S. is helpless and has no credibility, as they have propped up the thugs and dictators who are slaughtering their people. The daily  intensification of volcanic eruptions across the globe is clearly evident to all but the most linear thinkers. We’ve entered the Fourth Turning and there is no turning back.

    Prophecy or Destiny

    “Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice.  Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    The election of Barack Obama in 2008 did not usher in a sweeping political realignment of the country. The actions he has taken in the last two years have maintained the status quo. The financial industry complex, military industrial complex, and big pharma complex are stronger and more powerful today than they were in 2008. The 2010 midterm elections were a decisive rejection of Obama’s policies. Those who think he will be re-elected in 2012 are not seeing the big picture. Previous Fourth Turnings have ushered in strong dominating Prophet (Boomer) leaders who used any means necessary to bring the country through the Crisis. Wishy washy politically calculating compromiser leaders do not cut it during a time of intense Crisis. The number of vulnerable Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2012 virtually insures that Republicans will control both houses of Congress in 2012. A legitimate 3rd Party candidate does not appear to be on the horizon. The onset of phase two of the economic meltdown will determine the next President of the United States.

    Before the 2012 elections, I expect a violent downturn in our economic fortunes spurred by a continued fall in real estate values, generating more debt losses for the financial industry, and a loss of confidence in the U.S. fiat currency, as our foreign creditors balk at lending more money to an already insolvent empire that is incapable of taking corrective budgetary actions. The resulting economic turmoil, crashing stock market, rising interest rates, and massive unemployment will lead the nation to seek a strong, decisive, authoritative leader who will boldly lead the country through the remainder of the Crisis. Will it be Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, or a Lincoln like figure who hasn’t even entered the national stage yet? This question is unanswerable today. But, the country will turn to someone with answers. Strauss and Howe clearly state how important the next 10 to 15 years will be:

    “Decisive events will occur – events so vast, powerful, and unique that they lie beyond today’s wildest hypotheses. These events will inspire great documents and speeches, visions of a new political order being framed. People will discover a hitherto unimagined capacity to fight and die, and to let their children fight and die, for a communal cause. The Spirit of America will return, because there will be no other choice. Thus will Americans reenact the great ancient myth of the ekpyrosis. Thus will we achieve our next rendezvous with destiny.”

    I’m convinced that decisive events will transpire over the next decade that will push our country to the brink. The country is on an unsustainable path and we will either crash and burn or take the actions needed to avert catastrophe. Vast powerful events on an incomprehensible scale await. Events as farfetched as a Weimar like hyperinflationary economic collapse, the detonation of a nuclear bomb in a major American city, the secession of one or more States from the Union, the collapse of our oil based economy due to peak oil and/or revolution and turmoil in the Middle East, or a worldwide pandemic, will become not only realistic, but probable. Are these events any more improbable than a 9.0 earthquake, leading to a 33 foot high tsunami wave, which triggers nuclear meltdowns at two separate nuclear power plants? If you had outlined that scenario a week ago, you would have been classified as a crazy prophet of doom.

    At this point in time, it doesn’t seem possible that a communal cause could rejuvenate the Spirit of America in a manner that would lead me to be willing to fight and die or send my three sons to fight and die. An imminent threat, such as the Axis Powers during World War II, the North and South seeing each other as a threat during the Civil War, or the threat from a foreign empire during the American Revolution, does not appear evident today. The war on terror is a concept, rather than a real war. The absence of a known foreign adversary makes me think that the conflict could center on our own soil between Americans. Strauss and Howe point out that history does not offer much hope in avoiding armed conflict during this Fourth Turning:

    “History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.”

    When it comes to what kind of armed confrontation, how about all of the above? The wealth distribution of the country is more heavily skewed to the “Haves” versus the “Have Nots” than any time in history. The austerity measures that are being proposed on the backs of the middle class and senior citizens, while ultra-rich bankers have been bailed out and allowed to continue pillaging the countryside, will surely lead to class conflict. Generational warfare between the Boomers who want what they are “owed” and younger generations stuck with the bill will flare up in the coming years. The country has become so ideological that it can be easily split into Red States and Blue States. Could this ideological divide result in the country splitting into two or three independent countries? Would the Federal government use the armed forces to maintain one country? It happened before.

    The war on terror concept has been in place for the last ten years and has resulted in draining the Treasury of trillions, exhausting our limited volunteer forces, and creating more terrorists than existed on September 10, 2001. The revolutions sweeping across Northern Africa and the Middle East are not cause for celebration in Washington DC. American foreign policy has centered on supporting thugs, despots, and dictators across this region with financial aid and weapons. The aid was absconded and sent to bank vaults in Switzerland. The weapons are being used to kill the poor revolutionaries across the region. Two American backed dictators have been deposed thus far, with Yemen likely to follow. Our allies in the region are falling with lightening speed. The loss of Saudi Arabia would portend dire consequences for the U.S. If the Middle East oil spigot is turned off, the American way of life will wither and die.

    The myth of American Exceptionalism will not protect the country from the revolutionary tsunami that is sweeping the globe. America was not chosen by God as the country that would lead the world for eternity. The hubris and overreach of the American empire has bankrupted the nation. Greed, corruption and arrogance are not limited to North African dictatorships. Crony capitalism supporting a vast military empire, financed by a banker controlled Federal Reserve has failed. Its failure will become clear as the Fourth Turning intensifies and sweeps away the old order. Who or what replaces the old order is unknown. Much will depend on the generations and their response to the Crisis.

    Bad Moon Rising

    Robert Strauss and Neil Howe had no interest in trying to predict the future. As historians, they wanted to understand how the past could give clues to what would happen in the future. They discovered a pattern of behavior by generational archetypes across centuries of Anglo-American history. They identified the issues that would drive the next Fourth Turning. They predicted the timing. The accuracy of their prophecy thus far, has been uncanny. The rhythms of history continue. The outcome of this Crisis is unknowable, but there is most certainly a bad moon rising.

    Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    I see the bad moon arising.
    I see trouble on the way.
    I see earthquakes and lightning.
    I see bad times today.

    Don’t go around tonight,
    Well, it’s bound to take your life,
    There’s a bad moon on the rise.

    I hear hurricanes ablowing.
    I know the end is coming soon.
    I fear rivers over flowing.
    I hear the voice of rage and ruin.

    Hope you got your things together.
    Hope you are quite prepared to die.
    Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.
    One eye is taken for an eye.

    Credence Clearwater Revival – Bad Moon Rising

    ONCE IN A LIFETIME

    Guess who I was listening to on the way to work today? I’ve been working on a Fourth Turning related article for the last two weeks on and off. I’m desperately trying to connect the dots to give some indication of what will happen in the next ten years. I’m trying to keep the big picture in view. The day to day distractions are unimportant. During a Fourth Turning, the specific events are not as important as people’s reaction to the events. My article is about 50% complete and I’ll have it done by Sunday, but in the space of two weeks the world situation has deteriorated rapidly. The Middle East is ablaze in revolution. Tensions are rising all over the globe. European countries are teetering on the brink of insolvency. Energy and food prices are skyrocketing. The worst earthquake in a century struck Japan this morning. The US economic system rests solely on the printing press of the Federal Reserve.

    The MSM and myopic politicians are focused on the next election cycle, gay marriage, union protests in Wisconsin and American Idol. The world is changing. The old order is being swept away. Winter has descended on the world. There are bitter times ahead. You must keep the big picture in view. We are in the midst of a Fourth Turning that will not end until 2025. Buckle up.

    A Fourth Turning only happens Once in a Lifetime for a person who lives a normal 80 year life. That is why I think the Talking Heads tune – Once in a Lifetime is appropriate today.  

    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…

     

    And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack
    And you may find yourself in another part of the world
    And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
    And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful
    wife
    And you may ask yourself-Well…How did I get here?    Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
    Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
    Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
    Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

    And you may ask yourself
    How do I work this?
    And you may ask yourself
    Where is that large automobile?
    And you may tell yourself
    This is not my beautiful house!
    And you may tell yourself
    This is not my beautiful wife!
    Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
    Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
    Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
    Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…

    Water dissolving…and water removing
    There is water at the bottom of the ocean
    Carry the water at the bottom of the ocean
    Remove the water at the bottom of the ocean!

    Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
    Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
    Into the blue again/in the silent water
    Under the rocks and stones/there is water underground.

    Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
    Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
    Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
    Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

    And you may ask yourself
    What is that beautiful house?
    And you may ask yourself
    Where does that highway go?
    And you may ask yourself
    Am I right?…Am I wrong?
    And you may tell yourself
    MY GOD!…WHAT HAVE I DONE?    Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
    Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
    Into the blue again/in the silent water
    Under the rocks and stones/there is water underground.

    Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
    Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
    Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
    Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
    Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…

    Talking Heads – Once in a Lifetime

    BILLY’S STORY

    BELOW IS BILLY’S STORY DIRECTLY FROM THE GRAND JURY REPORT. I COPIED IT FROM A PDF, SO THE FORMATING IS OFF.

    OTHERS CAN WORRY ABOUT THE RIGHTS OF THE ACCUSED PRIESTS AND THE REPUTATION OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH. I WORRY ABOUT THE CHILDREN.

    This Grand Jury investigation began with the tearful testimony of “Billy.” Billy

    was a 10-year-old student in Barbara Mosakowski’s fifth-grade class at St. Jerome

    School in Philadelphia when two priests molested and orally sodomized him during the

    1998-99 school year. Billy had signed up to be an altar boy at St. Jerome Church because his brother, who was three years older, had been one. He also participated in the“maintenance department” of the school’s bell choir, meaning that he took the bells out of their cases before choir practice and put them away at the end.

    Rev. Charles Engelhardt abused Billy in the church sacristy after Mass.

     

    Billy’s first uncomfortable encounter with a priest took place after he served an

    early morning weekday Mass with Rev. Charles Engelhardt. While Billy was cleaning up

    in the church sacristy, Father Engelhardt caught him drinking some of the leftover wine.

    The priest did not scold the 10-year-old altar boy. Instead, he poured him more of the

    sacramental wine and began asking him personal questions, such as whether he had a

    girlfriend.

    While discussing such matters, Father Engelhardt pulled pornographic magazines

    out of a bag and showed them to Billy. He asked the boy how it made him feel to look at

    pictures of naked men and women, and which he preferred. He also told Billy that it was

    time for him to become a man, and that “sessions” with the priest would soon begin. With that enigmatic statement, Father Engelhardt let Billy go to school. At the time, the fifthgrader did not understand what the priest meant; he just put the episode in the back of his mind, and went about what he was doing.

    About a week later, Billy served another early morning Mass with Father

    Engelhardt. When they were in the church sacristy afterwards, the priest instructed Billy

    to take off his clothes and sit on a chair next to him. As the boy nervously complied,

    Father Engelhardt undressed himself, and then began to caress the 10-year-old’s legs.

    He repeated to Billy that it was time for him “to become a man,” and proceeded, in Billy’s words, both “to jerk [Billy] off” and to perform oral sex on him.

    At Father Engelhardt’s direction, Billy next fondled the priest’s genitals, and then

    got on his knees and put the priest’s penis in his mouth. Father Engelhardt called Billy

    “son,” and told him he was doing a good job as he instructed the boy to move his head

    faster or slower. After ejaculating on Billy, Father Engelhardt told him he was

    “dismissed.”

    About two weeks later, Father Engelhardt asked him if he was ready for another

    session, but Billy emphatically refused.

    Rev. Edward V. Avery learned that Father Engelhardt had abused Billy, and then

    did the same thing.

    Father Engelhardt left Billy alone after his unsuccessful attempt to arrange a

    repeat “session,” but the boy’s ordeal was far from over. A few months after the

    encounter with Father Engelhardt, Billy was putting the bells away after choir practice

    when Father Edward Avery pulled him aside to say that he had heard about Father

    Engelhardt’s session with Billy, and that his sessions with the boy would soon begin.

    Billy pretended he did not know what Father Avery was talking about, but his stomach

    turned.

    Soon after the warning, Billy served a Mass with Father Avery. When Mass was

    ended, Father Avery took the fifth-grader into the sacristy, turned on music, and ordered

    him to perform a “striptease” for him. Billy started to undress in a normal fashion, but

    Father Avery was not satisfied and directed him to dance while he removed his clothes.

    Father Avery sat and watched Billy with an “eerie smile” on his face, before

    getting up and undressing himself. When they were both naked, the priest had the boy sit on his lap and kissed his neck and back, while saying to him that God loved him and

    everything was okay.

    Father Avery fondled Billy’s penis and scrotum, and then had Billy stand so that

    he could perform oral sex on the boy. As the priest fellated the 10-year-old, he stuck his

    finger in Billy’s anus, causing him to react in great pain.

    After sucking on Billy’s penis for a while, Father Avery announced that it was

    time for Billy to “do” him. He directed the 10-year-old to fondle his genitals and then put

    the priest’s penis in his mouth and suck on his scrotum. The session ended when Father Avery ejaculated on Billy and told him to clean up. The priest told Billy that it had been a good session, and that they would have another again soon.

    They did, a few weeks later, following an afternoon weekend Mass. As Billy was

    cleaning a chalice, Father Avery again directed the 10-year-old to strip for him. When

    Billy did as he was told, the priest fondled and fellated him again and, this time, licked

    his anus. He made Billy “jerk him off” as he performed oral sex on the boy. After Father

    Avery ejaculated, he left Billy in the sacristy.

    From then on, Billy avoided serving Mass with Father Avery by trading

    assignments with other altar boys. But, like many children who are sexually abused, he

    was too frightened and filled with self-blame to report what had been done to him.

    Sixth-grade teacher Bernard Shero raped Billy in the back seat of a car.

     

    Billy had a slight break over the summer between fifth and sixth grades. He went

    to the New Jersey Shore with his family and, for that period, did not have to serve Mass

    with Father Engelhardt or Father Avery. But when he returned to school in the fall, he

    found himself in the sixth-grade classroom of Bernard Shero. Shero, according to Billy,

    was “kind of a creep.” He touched students when he talked to them, and would put his

    arm around students and whisper in their ears. Billy testified that Shero’s conversations

    with students were inappropriate, and that he would try to talk to Billy about intimate

    things.

    One day, Shero told Billy he would give him a ride home from school. But

    instead of taking Billy straight home, he stopped at a park about a mile from the boy’s

    house. When Billy asked why they were stopping, Shero answered, “We’re going to have some fun.” The teacher told Billy to get in the back seat of the car. He directed his

    student to take his clothes off, but then became impatient and started helping Billy to

    undress. Shero then fondled Billy’s genitals and orally and anally raped the now 11-year old boy. Shero was only able to get his penis part-way into Billy’s anus because the boy

    screamed in pain. The teacher then had Billy perform the same acts on him. As Billy did

    so, Shero kept saying, “It feels good.”

    After raping Billy, Shero told him to get dressed. He then made the fifth-grader

    walk the rest of the way home.

    Billy suffered physical and emotional harm as a result of the abuse.

     

    Although Billy was too frightened to directly report the abuse as a child, he

    experienced otherwise unexplained physical problems that corroborated his testimony

    before the Grand Jury. In the fifth grade, when Fathers Engelhardt and Avery were

    having their “sessions” with him, Billy complained to his mother of pain in his testicles.

    In the sixth grade, when Shero raped and orally sodomized him, he went through an

    extended period when he would gag and vomit for no reason. His mother took him to

    doctors for both conditions, but there was never a diagnosis. Billy’s mother turned over to the Grand Jurors her records of her visits to doctors with Billy.

    Billy’s mother also told us of a dramatic change in her son’s personality that

    coincided with the abuse. His friends and their parents also noticed this personality

    change. Billy’s mother watched as her friendly, happy, sociable son turned into a lonely,

    sullen boy. He no longer played sports or socialized with his friends. He separated

    himself, and began to smoke marijuana at age 11. By the time Billy was in high school,

    he was abusing prescription painkillers, and eventually he graduated to heroin.

    It was at an inpatient drug treatment facility that Billy first told someone about his

    abuse. Billy’s mother testified that she probably should have suspected something before then, because she found two books about sexual abuse hidden under Billy’s bed when he was in high school. She asked him about the books at the time, but he covered up for his abusers by telling her that he had them for a school assignment.

    The Philadelphia Archdiocese had assigned Father Avery to St. Jerome even though Msgr. William Lynn, Cardinal Anthony J. Bevilacqua, and other high-ranking officials knew he had abused another boy and could not be trusted around adolescents.

     

    In at least one instance, the blame for the abuse Billy suffered did not lie with the

    perpetrators alone. The Secretary for Clergy, Monsignor William Lynn,1 who is now the

    pastor at St. Joseph Church in Downingtown, had recommended Father Avery for

    assignment to a parish with a school. He then failed to supervise or restrict his contact

    with adolescents in any way. Msgr. Lynn did this even though he knew that Father Avery had sexually abused another boy and could not be trusted around children.

    While we cannot know Msgr. Lynn’s motivation for this abhorrent decision to

    allow a known child molester unfettered access to children whose parents had entrusted

    them to the Archdiocese’s care, we know that it gravely endangered the welfare of the

    parish children – a danger that was tragically realized in Billy’s case.

    Seven years before Father Avery abused Billy, the Archdiocese learned he had

    abused someone else.

     

    Seven years before Father Avery abused Billy, Msgr. Lynn, Cardinal Anthony J.

    Bevilacqua, and other Archdiocese officials learned that the priest had molested another

    altar boy. “James” was a 29-year-old medical student, with a wife and child, when he

    wrote to the Archdiocese in the spring of 1992 to report that Father Avery had abused

    him in the 1970s and 1980s. He enclosed a copy of a letter that he had just sent to Father Avery, in which he told the abusive priest:

    I’ve been carrying a burden for all these years that is not justly mine to

    bear. . . . It all began when I was a young boy and you came to my church.

    I thought you were funny and you let me help you at dances and other

    functions. You made me feel valued, included, and special. I trusted,

    respected, and loved you, and you taught me many things about

    construction, driving, and gave me my first beer. I truly believed you had

    my best interest at heart, that you cared about me in a fatherly way.

    Then one night after I had helped you at a dance and had quite a lot to

    drink I awoke to find your hand on my crotch. I was terrified. . . .

    I’ve never told you until now because I’ve been afraid and I’ve always

    blamed myself for what happened. I always thought there was something I

    did or said or a way I acted that made you think it was alright to do what

    you did. I would think that you’ve been such a good friend to me that

    maybe these activities were alright.

    I knew one thing, I didn’t want you to touch me that way and I didn’t want

    sex with you or any other man. I was determined after that night that I

    would never be hurt by you again. I would always be safe from that kind

    of intrusion. I became distant and depressed, my ability to trust men

    shattered. I am only now undergoing the long recovery process from

    wounds I suffered at your hands. I have let too much of my life be

    controlled by this terrible wrong you committed.

    YOU HAD NO RIGHT TO HURT ME THE WAY YOU DID.

    YOU HAVE NO RIGHT TO HURT ANYONE ELSE THIS WAY.

    I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT YOU DID TO ME.

    ALL THE RESPONSIBILITY IN THIS MATTER IS YOURS.

    I WILL NO LONGER CARRY THIS BURDEN FOR YOU.

    MY ONLY RESPONSIBILITY IS TO GOD, MYSELF, AND FAMILY.

    James told the Archdiocese that he sought neither money nor scandal. He merely wanted to make sure that Father Avery was not still a threat to others.

    On September 28, 1992, Msgr. Lynn and his assistant, Father Joseph R. Cistone,

    who is now the Bishop of Saginaw, Michigan, interviewed James. James told them that

    he had met Father Avery in 1976, when he was an altar boy and the priest was assistant pastor at Saint Philip Neri Parish in East Greenville. Father Avery would take James and other altar boys to his beach house in North Wildwood and give them alcohol. Father Avery gave James his first drink at age 12.

    James told Msgr. Lynn and Father Cistone that Father Avery first touched him on

    an overnight with a group of altar boys at the priest’s house on the Jersey Shore. Father

    Avery had entered the loft where the boys were sleeping, and had “wrestled” with them

    and “tickled” them. Several times, Father Avery put his hand on the boy’s crotch.

    In September 1978, Father Avery was transferred abruptly to Saint Agatha-Saint

    James Parish. James’s mother, Mary, described how, “One Sunday Father Avery was

    saying Mass and that Wednesday he was gone, transferred for some unknown reason.”

    After his transfer, Father Avery, who moonlighted as a disc jockey at bars,

    weddings, and parties, continued to invite James to assist him on disc jockey jobs.

    During James’s freshman year in high school, he took the boy to Smokey Joe’s, a bar on the University of Pennsylvania campus. There, the boy and the priest were served large amounts of alcohol. James told Msgr. Lynn that the priest took him back to his rectory for the night. When the then-15-year-old awoke, he was in Father Avery’s bed with the priest, and Father Avery had his hand on James’s genitals.

    James related to Msgr. Lynn a similar incident that occurred on a ski trip to

    Vermont when James was 18 years old. Again, Father Avery slept in the same bed with

    James and fondled the boy’s genitals.

    Msgr. Lynn and Father Cistone next interviewed Father Avery, who told them

    that he was drunk the night of the Smokey Joe’s incident – as was the 15-year-old – and did not recall much. He acknowledged that it “could be” that he did what was alleged, but claimed that he could not remember. He told Msgr. Lynn that if he touched James in Vermont while sleeping in the same bed, it was “strictly accidental.” He would later admit to a District Attorney’s Office detective, however, that he did fondle James’s

    genitals on the Vermont trip.

    Father Avery also informed Msgr. Lynn in 1992 that he had adopted six Hmong

    children – three girls and three boys. Archdiocese officials did nothing over the years to

    investigate the welfare or safety of these children entrusted to the accused child molester.

    Msgr. Lynn summarized his interviews with James and Father Avery in a memo

    to Cardinal Bevilacqua and, according to procedure, recommended that Father Avery be sent for evaluation at Saint John Vianney Hospital, an Archdiocese hospital in

    Downingtown. The Cardinal approved the recommendation in late 1992.

    Father Avery was evaluated and treated at an Archdiocese hospital; even it

    recommended that any future ministry by the priest not include adolescents.

     

    After four days of evaluation from November 30 through December 3, 1992, the

    Anodos Center, a part of Saint John Vianney Hospital in which sexual offenders in the

    clergy are evaluated and treated, recommended in-patient treatment for Father Avery.

    Msgr. Lynn reported to Cardinal Bevilacqua that the center had found Father Avery’s

    account of his involvement with James vague and inconsistent, that he seemed to have a mood disorder, and that he likely abused alcohol.

    On December 15, 1992, the Cardinal, who had allowed Father Avery to remain

    the active pastor of a parish for ten and a half months after James reported the sexual

    abuse to the Archdiocese, approved the recommendation for in-patient treatment at the

    Anodos Center.

    After Father Avery spent six months at Saint John Vianney, during which time

    James came to the hospital to confront the priest, it was determined that treatment should continue. Msgr. Lynn’s memos to the file, which up to that point had thoroughly

    documented the relevant facts and all the recommendations that he had provided to the

    Cardinal, became sparse.

    The Archdiocese maintains what it calls “secret archive files,” which should

    include all information relating to complaints against priests, such as those involving

    sexual abuse of minors. This file for Father Avery contained only a few scrawled notes in Msgr. Lynn’s handwriting from the time the priest was at St. John Vianney. The notes

    stated that treatment is to be continued; that Avery “got into shame” after meeting with

    James at the treatment center; that the priest was “in denial;” that there was a question of whether there were other victims; and that Father Avery was “upset” and “angry.”

    The next memo in the secret archive file, dated August 24, 1993, was written by

    Msgr. Edward P. Cullen, the Cardinal’s number two man and the vicar for administration, who went on to become the Bishop of the Allentown Archdiocese. In this memo, Msgr. Cullen passed along Cardinal Bevilacqua’s instructions to Msgr. Lynn. The Cardinal wanted his Secretary for Clergy to falsely explain Father Avery’s resignation to his parish as a matter of health, rather than inform parishioners of the truth – that the priest had molested at least one altar boy, and could not be trusted around adolescents.

    Msgr. Cullen’s memo stated:

    Cardinal Bevilacqua responded by saying that the Regional Vicar [Charles

    Devlin] should handle this matter. Monsignor Devlin should note that

    Father Avery resigned (if, in fact, you have his letter of resignation) and

    that the fundamental reason for his resignation is related to his health.

    Cardinal Bevilacqua further thought it would be helpful if Monsignor

    Devlin had a letter from Father Avery . . . which would be addressed to the

    parishioners thanking them for their support and indicating that his

    decision to resign was essential for his health.

    The next day, August 25, 1993, the Cardinal received Father Avery’s resignation

    as pastor at St. Therese of the Child Jesus in Philadelphia. In his letter, the priest noted

    that he had met with Msgr. Lynn, and he maintained the ruse that he was resigning

    “because my present state of health needs more attention.”

    In Cardinal Bevilacqua’s testimony before the previous grand jury, he tried to

    explain this deception of parishioners by claiming that the mention of health referred to a bipolar condition and alcoholism. Saint John Vianney had, however, informed the

    Archdiocese months before that Father Avery was “NOT bipolar.”

    Msgr. Cullen testified before the previous grand jury that Cardinal Bevilacqua

    was insistent, in all cases involving the sexual abuse of minors by priests, that

    parishioners not be informed of the truth. In accordance with that policy, Msgr. Lynn lied

    to a parishioner in a March 1993 letter, claiming that, while Father Avery was at Saint

    John Vianney, “there have never been anything but compliments heard in this office

    about Father Avery.” He wrote to another parishioner in July 1993 about the reason for

    Father Avery’s absence: “Let me assure you that is what they are – rumors.” Msgr. Lynn

    told that parishioner that Father Avery had requested a health leave.

    Father Avery was discharged from Saint John Vianney on October 22, 1993. In a

    memo to Msgr. James E. Molloy, then the assistant vicar for administration, Msgr. Lynn

    listed the treatment center’s recommendations. These included “a ministry excluding

    adolescents and with a population other than vulnerable minorities; a 12-step Alcoholics

    Anonymous meeting for priests; and any further involvement with the Hmong be in an

    administrative or pastoral capacity.” Saint John Vianney also advised that an aftercare

    team was necessary to keep watch over Father Avery.

    Despite the treatment center’s report, Msgr. Lynn concluded his memo by

    recommending that Father Avery be assigned as an associate pastor at Our Lady of

    Ransom, a parish in Philadelphia with an attached elementary school. Msgr. Molloy

    forwarded Msgr. Lynn’s memo to Cardinal Bevilacqua.

    Cardinal Bevilacqua assigned Father Avery to live at St. Jerome and allowed the

    known abuser to perform Masses with altar boys.

     

    Cardinal Bevilacqua followed Msgr. Lynn’s inexplicable recommendation to

    assign Father Avery to reside at a Philadelphia parish with an attached elementary school, though the Cardinal chose Saint Jerome instead of Our Lady of Ransom. In a December 7, 1993, letter to Rev. Joseph B. Graham, the pastor at St. Jerome, Msgr. Lynn wrote that Father Avery had been asked to help in the parish as much as he was able. Msgr. Lynn did not mention in his letter that Father Avery’s interaction with children at St. Jerome should be restricted or supervised in any way.

    Msgr. Lynn ignored repeated warnings that Father Avery was not complying with

    supposed restrictions on his activities.

     

    After assigning Father Avery to live at St. Jerome, a parish with an elementary

    school, the Archdiocese hierarchy did virtually nothing to minimize the continued danger

    that the priest posed to children. Archdiocese officials followed few, if any, of the

    therapists’ recommendations.

    Saint John Vianney personnel repeatedly told Msgr. Lynn that Father Avery’s

    aftercare team was not in place and was not meeting as it should. In fact, the team that the Archdiocese supposedly relied on to supervise Father Avery (Father Joseph Sweeney, Father Graham, and Msgr. Lynn) did not meet for more than a year after the priest’s release from the treatment center. Father Graham, the pastor, denied even knowing he was on such a team.

    A chaplain at the hospital, Father Michael Kerper, warned Msgr. Lynn frequently

    that Father Avery was neglecting his duties and was instead booking numerous disc

    jockey engagements. Msgr. Lynn’s notes record that even Father Graham called to

    complain that Father Avery was doing too much disc jockeying.

    In February 1995, Father Kerper took it upon himself to inform Msgr. Lynn that

    Father Avery had booked party engagements for 25 of the next 31 Saturdays. Msgr. Lynn brushed off the Saint John Vianney chaplain and disregarded the implications of Father Avery’s access to young people – even though he knew these activities involved

    precisely the kind of situations the priest had exploited to sexually molest James.

    Msgr. Lynn and his colleagues also appear to have ignored Father Avery’s

    continued involvement with the Hmong, despite Saint John Vianney’s explicit

    recommendation to limit his contacts with that community. According to Cardinal

    Bevilacqua, restrictions on an abusive priest’s ministry are normally documented in his

    file. There is nothing, however, in Father Avery’s file to suggest that his access to the

    Hmong children whom he adopted, or his non-pastoral relationships with the Hmong,

    was ever restricted or even monitored.

    Archdiocese documents indicate that, in 1996, Msgr. Lynn was aware that Father

    Avery was still deeply involved with the Hmong community – three years after therapists

    had urged that he be kept away from “vulnerable minorities.” There is no indication that

    church officials ever checked on the welfare of Father Avery’s “adopted” children – even

    though Msgr. Lynn and the Cardinal were the only people in a position to protect those

    children, having concealed from the community that the man entrusted with their welfare

    was an accused child molester.

    Msgr. Lynn protected Cardinal Bevilacqua while endangering parish children.

     

    Between 1994 and 2002, the only thing that concerned Msgr. Lynn sufficiently to

    suggest a meeting with Father Avery was the priest’s repeated requests to attach Cardinal Bevilacqua’s signature to endorsements for various certifications and programs. The Cardinal did personally endorse Father Avery for certification by the National Association of Catholic Chaplains, which asked the Cardinal to vouch for the priest’s “high standards of professional competence and moral and ethical conduct.” But the next time such an endorsement was needed, Msgr. Lynn interceded to protect Cardinal Bevilacqua.

    In September 1997, Msgr. Lynn met with Father Avery to tell him that the

    Cardinal could not complete a questionnaire for his admittance to a doctoral program at

    Chestnut Hill College, explaining that “Cardinal Bevilacqua must be careful as to what

    kinds of endorsements he gives.” Msgr. Lynn was not, however, telling Father Avery that the Archdiocese would not vouch for his good character – only that the Cardinal’s name could no longer appear on written endorsements. Msgr. Lynn furnished the necessary character reference himself, citing honesty as one of Father Avery’s strengths, and Father Avery enrolled in the college program.

    During the same September 1997 meeting with Father Avery, Msgr. Lynn told the

    priest that he had received an e-mail from James. In fact, he had received the e-mail a

    year earlier. In September 1996, James wrote:

    What in the end happened to [Father Avery]. I’m not

    asking for details. What I want to know is – is he

    rehabilitated or in a situation where he can’t harm others?

    Will the diocese vouch for the safety of its children? For

    my peace of mind I have to know.

    Msgr. Lynn wrote in his memo of the September 1997 meeting that he told Father Avery

    that he had responded to James “that the Archdiocese had taken proper steps in the

    matter, without stating where Father Avery was stationed.”

    Msgr. Lynn continued that he told Father Avery “he should be more low-keyed

    than he has been recently.” He then noted: “Father Avery, at first, did not seem to

    understand what I was talking about, but after we had been talking for a while it finally

    dawned on him what I was saying.”

    Msgr. Lynn did not say in his memo what Father Avery had done recently to

    prompt this warning. In fact, Msgr. Lynn’s obscure language, the pride he seemed to take

    in relating to Father Avery that he had not told James that the priest was living in the

    rectory of a parish with a school, and the warning to the sexual predator to be “lowkeyed” all seem like the product of someone trying to aid and abet an abuser in escaping detection. They are certainly not the product of someone trying to protect children from a predator in their midst.

    In 1998, Msgr. Lynn wrote another memo to the file explaining why Cardinal

    Bevilacqua could not recommend Father Avery as a chaplain to the Veteran’s Hospital.

    The problem was that the Cardinal would have to write a letter saying there were no

    allegations against Father Avery, which obviously was not true. Msgr. Lynn also wrote

    that he still had “concern” about Father Avery because the priest “still seems to minimize his behavior.”

    Again, Msgr. Lynn in the memo did not specify the “behavior” he was referring

    to. In any case, Father Avery stayed at St. Jerome, serving Mass with children and

    hearing their confessions. He also kept working as a disc jockey, because no one made

    him stop. Msgr. Lynn wrote this memo a few months before Father Avery molested Billy.

     

    The 1992 allegation against Father Avery was not officially deemed credible until

    2003 – after a grand jury had launched an investigation.

     

    In June 2002, 10 years after James first reported the abuse by Father Avery, he

    called Msgr. Lynn in frustration. James told Msgr. Lynn that Father Avery was still

    engaging in the same activities that led to his abuse. He informed Msgr. Lynn that Father Avery was working parties as a disc jockey, and expressed concern that the priest was around minors drinking alcohol. James told Msgr. Lynn he felt he was not being “heard as credible.” The victim offered more details of the priest’s past behavior with him and other boys, and he gave names of those who could corroborate his story.

    James had explained to Archdiocese officials when he first came forward in 1992

    that writing his letter confronting Father Avery was the most difficult thing he’d ever

    done. He had been unable to do it for more than a decade. He expected that when he

    finally mustered the courage to act he would find some resolution and be able to move

    on. He had presumed the Archdiocese would act on his information to keep Father Avery away from other boys.

    James told Msgr. Lynn that he wanted Father Avery to “own up” to what he had

    done, and he wanted the Archdiocese to protect other children. Most of all, he said, he

    wanted to know he was believed. Yet Msgr. Lynn refused to tell this 29-year-old victim,

    who sought nothing but to place the responsibility for his molestation where it belonged,

    and to protect other children from experiencing the same trauma, that he was believed.

    Meanwhile, Father Avery continued to minister at St. Jerome. He testified before

    the previous grand jury that he continued to celebrate Mass, with altar servers, usually

    twice a weekend. He told the grand jury on April 25, 2003, that he was still permitted to

    hear confessions of the grade-school children. He said he was never told to restrict his

    activities with the children of the parish.

    On June 2, 2003, a little over a month after Father Avery testified before the

    grand jury, Cardinal Bevilacqua finally launched an investigation into the 1992

    allegations. Following a review of the investigation by an Archdiocesan review board,

    Cardinal Justin Rigali, who succeeded Cardinal Bevilacqua in 2003, found James’s

    allegation “credible.” Cardinal Rigali removed Father Avery from all assignments and

    prohibited him from performing public ministry on December 5, 2003. That was five

    years too late to protect Billy – and who knows how many other children.

    CATHOLIC CHURCH – LOOKING FOR A FEW GOOD MEN

    Here we go again. I’ve documented repeatedly over the last year that I have been as good a Catholic as anyone. I went to Catholic school for 12 years. I never missed mass over the 1st 40 or so years of my life. Even when I was living away at college, I would walk 10 blocks from my house to the Catholic church at 38th and Chestnut every Saturday night to go to Mass. I’ve sent all three of my kids to Catholic school. I’ve donated thousands of dollars over my lifetime to the Catholic church.

    But the unceasing revelations of priests fucking little boys and not being turned in to the police by the heirarchy of the Catholic Church has infuriated me. The Cardinals, Bishops, and Pastors in the Phila Archdiocese have known for decades about these evil boy raping priests. They shuffled them from parish to parish where they could prey on new 11 year old meat. They protected the church’s wealth, not the children. When confronted with accusations, the Cardinal’s first question was “Is the statute of limitations up?”. Sure sounded like he was looking out for the kids. They would secretly pay off families of victims without turning the evil priests in to the authorities.

    There was a 2005 grand jury report about these terrible abuses and cover-ups in the Phila Archdisocese. The church responded by forming a commission to address the accusations by victims. A huge PR campaign was initiated by the church to make it appear they were taking actions to protect the children. This commission actually acted to find dirt on the victims in order to avoid paying compensation. The heirarchy continued to protect the boy fucking priests.

    Last month, a new grand jury report revealed High level coverups in the Church and horrifically detailed the acts performed by these lowlife scum priests. A list of over 30 priests still in parishes around Phila was in the grand jury report. Yesterday, on Ash Wednesday, the church got around to suspending 21 priests. The Catholic church has not done this willingly or of their own volition. They have been dragged kicking and screaming the whole way. These priests would not have been suspended or turned into the police by the Cardinal, if the grand jury had not done their work.

    I was not going to post anything about this until I opened my paper this morning and read the names on the list. We belonged to the St. Francis parish in Norristown for 5 years in the early 1990’s. There was a priest there that we loved. He had taught my wife at Bishop Kenrick high school and gave the best sermons I had ever heard. We would make sure we went to his Masses. I hadn’t come across another priest since who matched his ability to make a sermon relevant and interesting. His name is Father Logrip. He is on the list. He is at a local parish next to Lansdale high school. I can’t tell you how angry this makes me.

    I’m done with the Catholic Church. When my mother heard that I had stopped going to church, she was outraged and was burning up the telephone lines to my sister. I was surely going to hell. We had a few really nasty telephone exchanges where I described what these priests had done. My mother is the ultimate Catholic. She follows all the rules. Never misses mass. In the last month, she has stopped putting money in the collection basket. She tells me how terrible the Catholic church heirarchy has become. My sister still goes to church, but hands in an empty envelope. It lets them know she is there, and it lets them know she is not happy. I watched the news last night and they interviewed the non-thinking delusional Catholics who refused to believe that their parish priest is on the list. Delusion abounds across the land.

    THESE PRIESTS FUCKED & RAPED LITTLE HELPLESS BOYS. CARDINAL RIGALI AND THE REST OF HIS HENCHMEN HAVE COVERED UP THESE HEINOUS CRIMES. THOSE ARE THE FACTS. DEAL WITH IT YOU DELUSIONAL CATHOLICS.

    The suspension of these priests is not even close to satisfying me. Until the heirarchy of the church is thrown in jail for their crimes, I will never give the Catholic Church a dime of my money or step foot in their churches. I do not need these men to have a relationship with my God.

     

     

    MORE LIBERAL HATE SPEWERS BITE THE DUST

    James O’Keefe already brought ACORN down and now he brings down NPR. Nice job Mr. O’Keefe. The truth will always set you free. I’m sure that Smokey and LLPOH will come to the defense of NPR, since what O’Keefe did was unethical and not according to the rules of journalism. Rules are rules.

     

    NPR CEO Vivian Schiller Resigns Over James O’Keefe Video

    Benjy Sarlin | March 9, 2011, 9:54AM

    Former CEO of National Public Radio Vivian Schiller
    NPR President and CEO Vivian Schiller resigned from the news organization Wednesday morning in response to a hidden camera prank targeting NPR Foundation president Ron Schiller, adding another high-profile notch to James O’Keefe’s belt.

    “The Board accepted Vivian’s resignation with understanding, genuine regret and great respect for her leadership of NPR these past two years,” read a statement from NPR Board Chairman Dave Edwards.

    Ron Schiller (no relation to Vivian), president of the NPR Foundation, had already submitted his resignation on Tuesday evening after the network had placed him on leave and released a statement saying they were “appalled” by his behavior on a tape with a group of phony prospective donors slamming Tea Partiers, nodding politely as conspiracy theories about Jews in the media were floated, and suggesting NPR would be better off without federal funding. Another NPR executive in the video, Betsy Liley, director of institutional giving, is also on administrative leave.

    The video proved an uncomfortable and unexpected crisis for NPR, which was already under heavy fire from Republicans in Congress who are pushing legislation to cut funding to the public broadcaster. Majority Leader Eric Cantor seized upon Ron Schiller’s remarks in the video yesterday as proof that NPR could survive without federal dollars while critics pointed to Schiller’s numerous denunciations of the Tea Party as evidence the news organization was biased towards the left. Ron Schiller was not part of the news division of the organization.

    Vivian Schiller, who took her position in 2009, had recently weathered another difficult episode in the organization’s history, firing commentator Juan Williams over comments that some critics felt were derogatory towards Muslims. Williams has since taken a position with FOX News, and many conservatives claimed that his firing was inappropriate and more cause to defund NPR. In a speech to the National Press Club this year, Schiller admitted, “We handled the situation badly. We acted too hastily and we made some mistakes, and I made some mistakes.”

    Williams, for his part, ripped NPR on Fox News over the latest video.

    “This was an act of incredible condescension,” he said on Fox Nation, according to the Huffington Post. “They will say things to your face about how there’s no liberal orthodoxy at NPR, how they play it straight, but now you see it for what it is. They prostitute themselves for money.”

    According to NPR, Vivian Schiller will be succeeded by Joyce Slocum, Senior Vice President of Legal Affairs and General Counsel, who will serve as an interim CEO while the board finds a permanent replacement.

    CLUELESS AMERICANS

    “Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!” – George Carlin

     

    Whenever I read the responses of average Americans to questions about the economy and how our government operates, I think of George Carlin. Here is another poll that confirms we are doomed. Americans like big government. They actually think the government creates jobs. They actually aren’t worried at all about peak oil. They actually think we can cut the budget without touching Medicare or Social Security or the Military. The education system in this country has done just as those in power wanted. It has created the most clueless, docile, non-critical thinking flock of sheep ever assembled on earth in one place. They approach the slaughterhouse without a care in the world. Here is teh link to the actual survey. 

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rk74U1tEA.R0

    Americans Oppose Government Shutdown, Fault Cuts in Poll

    Americans are sending a message to congressional Republicans: Don’t shut down the federal government or slash spending on popular programs.

    Almost 8 in 10 people say Republicans and Democrats should reach a compromise on a plan to reduce the federal budget deficit to keep the government running, a Bloomberg National Poll shows. At the same time, lopsided margins oppose cuts to Medicare, education, environmental protection, medical research and community-renewal programs.

    While Americans say it’s important to improve the government’s fiscal situation, among the few deficit-reducing moves they back are cutting foreign aid, pulling U.S. troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and repealing the Bush-era tax cuts for households earning more than $250,000 a year.

    The results of the March 4-7 poll underscore the hazards confronting Republicans, as well as President Barack Obama and Democrats, as they face a showdown over funding the government and seek a broader deficit-reduction plan.

    “Americans do not have a realistic picture of the budget,” says J. Ann Selzer, the Des Moines, Iowa-based pollster who conducted the survey. “We all know people who are in debt yet cannot for the life of them figure out where the money goes.”

    Overall, public concern about the deficit — which is projected to reach $1.6 trillion this year — is growing, although it’s still eclipsed by employment, with poll respondents ranking job creation as a higher priority.

    1% of Budget

    More than seven in 10 respondents say slashing foreign aid and pulling troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan would result in substantial savings, and large majorities back such moves. Yet foreign aid accounts for about 1 percent of federal spending, and the Pentagon requested $159 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan this year, less than 5 percent of Obama’s $3.83 trillion federal budget.

    Fewer than half of respondents say cutting Medicare benefits or raising the age at which Americans receive Social Security retirement benefits would have a large impact on the deficit, and only 2 in 10 favor cutting Medicare benefits. Such entitlements account for about 40 percent of the budget and are the main drivers of the long-term deficit.

    “Those people need those benefits,” says Will Moore, 36- year-old electrician from Dallas, Georgia, in a follow-up interview. Congress instead should eliminate “useless government programs and cut taxes and put money back in people’s pockets to stimulate spending,” says Moore.

    Eclipsed by Jobs

    When given five choices for the most important issue facing the nation, unemployment and jobs ranked first with 43 percent – – down from 50 percent in Bloomberg’s December 2010 poll — with the deficit and spending cited by 29 percent, up from 25 percent. Health care was chosen by 12 percent, the war in Afghanistan by 7 percent, and immigration by 3 percent.

    Asked to choose between jobs and the deficit, 56 percent called creating jobs the government’s more important priority now, while 42 percent said cutting spending was.

    Obama and congressional leaders have until March 18 to break an impasse over funding the government through the end of the 2011 fiscal year or risk a shutdown. The Republican-led House last month passed a $1.2 trillion budget that includes $61 billion in cuts. Obama and Democrats call the reductions excessive and propose cutting a total of about $10 billion. The debate is only over the current budget and doesn’t include long- term issues about the debt, including entitlements.

    Cautionary Notes

    To be sure, the poll holds cautionary notes and signs of opportunities for both parties in the budget battle. It shows the public doesn’t support the Republicans’ deep cuts to social and scientific programs. Solid majorities reject significant reductions in community programs that serve lower-income Americans, medical and scientific research, education programs and the Environmental Protection Agency. Fifty percent oppose significant cuts to public television and radio, compared with 46 percent who are in favor of that.

    Still, the results indicate the public embraces the Republican argument that spending cuts will improve the economy and create jobs and doesn’t agree with Obama’s plan to invest in such areas as infrastructure to jumpstart a recovery.

    Fifty-three percent say the drive to cut spending and taxes would improve the economy, while 44 percent say spending money on high-speed rail, expanding access to broadband Internet and developing new sources of alternative energy, as Obama proposes, would lay the groundwork for growth.

    The poll also found that 61 percent say it’s possible to bring down the deficit substantially without raising taxes, while 37 percent said it isn’t possible.

    Partisan Divide

    While large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans want to avoid a government shutdown, that feeling is stronger among Democrats: Only 6 percent of Democrats say the issue of spending cuts is important enough to warrant a shutdown, compared with 92 percent who said they want to avoid that; 29 percent of Republicans say deep reductions need to be made even if it means closing down the government for a time, while 69 percent say that should be avoided. Just over 7 of 10 independents say they want compromise.

    Overall, 77 percent say while cuts need to be made, an accord should be reached to avert a shutdown, compared with 20 percent who say a shutdown would be tolerable.

    “I don’t think that allowing the government to shut down is acceptable,” says Suzanne Ray, a 67-year-old retired state employee from Richmond, Virginia, who describes herself as an independent. “We have elected people who should be able to reach reasonable decisions instead of acting like a bunch of spoiled children.”

    Hands Off Medicare

    While the broad majority that wants compromise on the budget may signal peril for Republicans, 45 percent say the party would benefit more than Democrats from a shutdown for having taken a strong stand against spending; 34 percent say Democrats would gain.

    People are reluctant to touch Medicare, with more than three-quarters opposing any reduction in benefits to the insurance program for the elderly. Fifty-one percent say that would make little difference to the federal deficit, compared with 44 percent who say it would have a big impact.

    Respondents split over whether gradually raising the age of eligibility for retirement for Social Security to 69 would produce at least modest savings: 47 percent say it would produce very or fairly large savings, compared with 48 percent who say it would have little impact.

    The public may be opening up to the idea of raising the eligibility requirement for Social Security. From December, there was a 7-point increase in the percentage of Americans who support raising the retirement age, to 44 percent. While just 22 percent say Medicare benefits should be reduced, that’s a 7- point jump from three months ago.

    Do Something

    And 40 percent say Medicare should be replaced with a system in which government vouchers would help participants pay for their own health insurance.

    “Something has to be done,” says Stanley Stein, a 75- year-old retired X-ray technician from Sahuarita, Arizona, who endorses raising the retirement age and means-testing Social Security benefits. “Otherwise, there’ll be nothing for anybody.”

    There’s also a partisan split in public perceptions of the threat posed by the deficit.

    Forty-six percent of Republicans and 47 percent of Tea Party supporters call the deficit and government spending the most important issue facing the country, compared with 16 percent of Democrats, for whom jobs ranks first. Almost 7 in 10 Republicans and Tea Party backers say spending is the more important priority over jobs, while 77 percent of Democrats choose job creation over the deficit. Jobs are the higher priority for independents, by a margin of 55 percent to 42 percent — almost identical to respondents overall.

    The poll of 1,001 adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

    THERE ARE NO GOOD OUTCOMES

    The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his 15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.

                   UNLEADED GAS

    The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S. oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college. World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line, it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder. Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.

    With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies

    Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near, medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed young men?  Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots, kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these “freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil.

    Proven Oil Oil
    Country Reserves (bil barrels) Production Per Day
    Saudi Arabia 265 8,400,000
    Iran 137 3,700,000
    Iraq 115 2,700,000
    UAE 98 2,300,000
    Kuwait 102 2,300,000
    Libya 46 1,600,000
    Algeria 12 1,300,000
    Qatar 25 820,000
    Oman 6 810,000
    Egypt 4 742,000
    Syria 3 376,000
    Yemen 3 298,000

    One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls 7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future. The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.

    File:World Oil Reserves by Region.PNG

    Drill, Baby, Drill

    Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world. We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976. The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13% of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby Drill.

    File:Mexican Petroleum Production.PNG

    Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98% increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.

    We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in Congress and on Wall Street.

    Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
    (Thousand Barrels per Day)
    Country Dec-10 Nov-10 YTD 2010 Dec-09 YTD 2009
    CANADA 2,064 1,975 1,972 2,104 1,943
    MEXICO 1,223 1,229 1,140 1,063 1,092
    SAUDI ARABIA 1,076 1,119 1,080 870 980
    NIGERIA 1,024 806 986 1,020 776
    VENEZUELA 825 884 912 772 951
    IRAQ 336 340 414 325 449
    ANGOLA 307 263 380 266 448
    BRAZIL 271 188 254 181 295
    ALGERIA 262 379 325 336 281
    COLOMBIA 220 489 338 179 251
    ECUADOR 192 188 195 86 181
    RUSSIA 158 85 252 168 230
    KUWAIT 125 170 195 160 180
    UNITED KINGDOM 124 80 120 67 103
    ARGENTINA 85 35 29 33 53

    Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial

    The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desert that Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
    The UK Guardian reported:

    According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as “peak oil”.

    Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.

    One cable said: “According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray.”

    The US consul then told Washington: “While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

    A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.

    It also reported major project delays and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.” While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.

    The overstatement of reserves by Saudi Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported, unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud. Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”

    Using some common sense, someone might ask, “How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is about to choke the American way of life.

    Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
    BP Statistical Review – June 2009
    Year Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Libya Nigeria
    1980 58.3 30.0 67.9 168.0 30.4 19.5 20.3 16.7
    1981 57.0 32.0 67.7 167.9 32.2 19.9 22.6 16.5
    1982 56.1 59.0 67.2 165.5 32.4 24.9 22.2 16.8
    1983 55.3 65.0 67.0 168.8 32.3 25.9 21.8 16.6
    1984 58.9 65.0 92.7 171.7 32.5 28.0 21.4 16.7
    1985 59.0 65.0 92.5 171.5 33.0 54.5 21.3 16.6
    1986 92.9 72.0 94.5 169.7 97.2 55.5 22.8 16.1
    1987 92.9 100.0 94.5 169.6 98.1 58.1 22.8 16.0
    1988 92.9 100.0 94.5 255.0 98.1 58.5 22.8 16.0
    1989 92.9 100.0 97.1 260.1 98.1 59.0 22.8 16.0
    1990 92.9 100.0 97.0 260.3 98.1 60.1 22.8 17.1
    1991 92.9 100.0 96.5 260.9 98.1 62.6 22.8 20.0
    1992 92.9 100.0 96.5 261.2 98.1 63.3 22.8 21.0
    1993 92.9 100.0 96.5 261.4 98.1 64.4 22.8 21.0
    1994 94.3 100.0 96.5 261.4 98.1 64.9 22.8 21.0
    1995 93.7 100.0 96.5 261.5 98.1 66.3 29.5 20.8
    1996 92.6 112.0 96.5 261.4 97.8 72.7 29.5 20.8
    1997 92.6 112.5 96.5 261.5 97.8 74.9 29.5 20.8
    1998 93.7 112.5 96.5 261.5 97.8 76.1 29.5 22.5
    1999 93.1 112.5 96.5 262.8 97.8 76.8 29.5 29.0
    2000 99.5 112.5 96.5 262.8 97.8 76.8 36.0 29.0
    2001 99.1 115.0 96.5 262.7 97.8 77.7 36.0 31.5
    2002 130.7 115.0 96.5 262.8 97.8 77.3 36.0 34.3
    2003 133.3 115.0 99.0 262.7 97.8 77.2 39.1 35.3
    2004 132.7 115.0 101.5 264.3 97.8 79.7 39.1 35.9
    2005 137.5 115.0 101.5 264.2 97.8 80.0 41.5 36.2
    2006 138.4 115.0 101.5 264.3 97.8 87.3 41.5 36.2
    2007 138.2 115.0 101.5 264.2 97.8 99.4 43.7 36.2
    2008 137.6 115.0 101.5 264.1 97.8 99.4 43.7 36.2

    The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun. Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our history.

    The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds. The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000 Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually. Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.

    When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far off lands that despise our way of life.

    There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic. Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary. The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could go wrong?

    LANSDALE CATHOLIC CRUSADERS WALK TOGETHER FOREVER

    HATBORO HORSHAM SLEEPS WITH THE FISHES

    The Lansdale Catholic Crusaders are the champions of the Suburban hockey league. In a tense game, the Crusaders prevailed 3 to 1. Our goalie Ben Mills played the game of his career. The Lansdale Catholic student body showed up en mass. We were able to match the loudness of the 500 HH fans with our 100 fans. There were numerous thundering body checks, with a number being delivered by Kevin Quinn. In the last 5 minutes he single handedly kept the puck in the HH zone for over a minute battling along the boards.

    My Fred Shero post made the rounds among the team prior to the game. I’m sure it was the key to the victory.

    CONGRATULATIONS LANSDALE CATHOLIC. YOUR ACCOMPLISHMENT WILL LIVE WITH YOU FOREVER.

    HARD WORK, DEDICATION, AND TEAMWORK ALWAYS PAYS OFF. 

    LC tops H-H to win league championship

    The Crusaders captured the best-of-three Class A series in their first year in the American Division.

    WARWICK TWP. – The building was packed, the crowd energetic. And the deciding game of the Suburban High School Hockey League Class A championship series matched expectations.

    Joe McGarity, Nick Sette and Andrew Hart all scored goals as Lansdale Catholic downed Hatboro-Horsham 3-1 Thursday night at the Bucks County Ice Sports Center to take the series two games to one.

    Both teams will be back in action next week in the Class A Flyers Cup tournament but, for the Crusaders, who moved over to the American Division from the defunct Catholic League Blue this season, this was the night that mattered.

    “Oh my God, this feels amazing,” said LC winger Sette. “Words can’t describe the feeling. It’s almost like winning the Cup.”

    The energy in the stands spread to the players on the ice; the opening period featured an abundance of end-to-end skating.

    The Crusaders’ McGarity scored the period’s only goal on a shot from the right wing. Hatters goalie Jimmy Salfiti couldn’t quite cover the right post and the Crusaders had a 1-0 lead.

    “I think we came out flat in the first period,” said Hatters coach Trish Silvestri. “I think we thought it would just happen instead of making it happen.”

    Settle made it a 2-0 game at 7:55 of the second period when he beat Salfiti at close range.

    By that point, both teams were feeling the effects of the game’s pace.

    There was plenty of hitting and, for the most part, the officials let the players play on, whistling only the most serious of infractions.

    Tim Boyle scored for the Hatters with 1:51 left in the second period to make it a one-goal game.

    The Hatters failed to capitalize on an opportunity at the start of the third period when the Crusaders successfully killed off back-to-back minor penalties.

    The Crusaders’ Andrew Hart spent two minutes in the box after being whistled for holding at 2:44 but, only moments later, scored the game-clinching goal when Lansdale Catholic dumped the puck into the Hatboro-Horsham defensive zone.

    The Hatters were slow to go after the puck and the Crusaders’ Anthony Valerio got to it instead on the offensive left wing. He put the puck on Hart’s stick and it wound up behind Salfiti.

    “We could see they weren’t working hard (around) the puck,” said Crusaders coach Mark DiDonato. “That (third) goal was huge.”

    “They got a lot of bounces we didn’t get,” Silvestri said. “We had a lot of chances right by the net that just wouldn’t go in. I think our overall effort was there.

    “Some of these kids have never been in a game like this. For them to work as hard as they have, that’s achieving a goal in itself.”

    Rick Woelfel can be reached at [email protected]

    Lansdale Catholic 3, Hatboro-Horsham 1

    Lansdale Catholic 1 1 1-3

    Hatboro-Horsham 0 1 0-1

    First-period goal: Joe McGarity (LC) from Liam McCorry, 13:38.

    Second-period goals: Nick Sette (LC) from Brendan Curtis and Andrew Hart, 7:55; Tim Boyle (HH) from Harry Nesbitt, 13:09.

    Third-period goal: Hart (LC) from Anthony Valerio, 5:27.

    Shots: LC 27, HH 24. Saves: Ben Mills (LC) 23; Jimmy Salfiti (HH) 24.

    Records: LC (15-9); HH (14-9-3).

    QUOTES OF THE DAY – CHAMPIONSHIP GAME EDITION

    “Win today and we walk together forever.” 

    “Arrive at the net with the puck and in ill humor.”

    Ftr

    “If you keep your opposition on their ass, they don’t score goals.”

    “Some people dream of success, while others wake up and work hard at it.”

    “Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You must first set yourself on fire.”

    “Some people dream of success, while others wake up and work hard at it.”

    “Be more concerned with your character than your reputation. For your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are.”

    “Success is failing nine times and getting up 10.”

    “When you have bacon and eggs for breakfast, the chicken makes a contribution, the pig makes a commitment.”

    “Success requires no explanations, failure presents no alibis.”

    ALL THE QUOTES ABOVE ARE FROM FRED SHERO

    MANGY CURS SENT HOME WITH TAILS BETWEEN THEIR LEGS

    The Lansdale Crusaders showed up with a chip on their shoulders last night. The Hatboro-Horsham Hatters didn’t know what hit them. It was a shooting gallery as the Crusaders treated them like Muslim infidels. The first goal was set up by Kevin Quinn as his shot was redirected into the net by Anthony Valerio, who ended up with a hat trick on the night. With the game still tense in the 3rd period and LC up 4 to 2, Kevin Quinn scored the 5th goal to drive a stake into their hearts. While still out on the ice for the next shift, two seperate HH players tried to take runs at Quinn. He flattened them both with shoulders to their chops. Administrator may have celebrated excessively in order to rub it in to the dickhead HH parents surrounding him at the game.

    Tonight is for all the marbles.

     HHES

    SHSHL Ice Hockey Class A Finals: LC ties series with Hatboro-Horsham

    Posted: Wednesday, March 2, 2011 11:23 pm

    WARMINSTER — Anthony Valerio scored a hat trick Wednesday and goalie Ben Mills turned aside 23 Hatboro-Horsham shots on goal, as Lansdale Catholic defeated the Hatters, 5-2, in game two of the best-of-three Suburban High School Hockey League Class A Finals at Bucks County Ice.

    The win evens the series at 1-1, with the third and deciding game to be played at Bucks County Ice tonight at 7 p.m.

    TOP 40 LIBERTARIAN WEBSITES

    DBKPES

    Our site deserves to be on this list. Nolan Chart is like the sound of one hand clapping. Dead as a doorknob. I bet our traffic counts beat at least 25 of these sites. Maybe Libertarians don’t use foull language. The Big Picture isn’t libertarian. Barry Ritholtz is an inside Wall Street guy.

    Top Libertarian 40 Sites: March 2011

    March 1, 2011

    By Mondoreb

    Top 40 most popular Libertarian websites according to 3-month Alexa worldwide traffic averages.

    DBKP’s Top 40 list featuring Libertarian sites.

    DBKP Libertarian 40: Top 40 Libertarian websites

    DBKP Reports has released its ratings of the top 40 most popular Libertarian websites on the Internet. Ratings are based on the sites’ 3-month average of Alexa worldwide traffic as ranked on February 27-28, 2011.

    The Libertarian 40′s top five most popular sites is led by Lew Rockwell, followed by Reason and Ludwig Von Mises Institute. The top five is rounded out by The Daily Paul and the Big Picture.

    Like all lists, the Libertarian list covers a lot of ground; our broad definition: all these sites cover topics of interest primarily–but not limited to–Libertarians: individual freedom and liberty, small government, unabashed defense of capitalism and the free market and fiscal restraint.

    As with DBKP’s other lists, it’s planned that the Libertarian list will expand in the future to 100 sites as more become known. If your website (or one that you frequent) has been missed, drop a line to: [email protected].

    DBKP Libertarian 40
    March 1, 2011
    1st Ratings- 2011

    Rank Alexa Rank Website
    1 Lew Rockwell 6823
    2 Reason 10519
    3 Ludwig von Mises Institute 12616
    4 Daily Paul 14124
    5 The Big Picture 16771
    6 Electronic Frontier Foundation 18606
    7 Ron Paul Forums 26531
    8 Marginal Revolution 28829
    9 Campaign for Liberty 42441
    10 Cato Institute 47953
       
    11 Library of Economics and Liberty 73208
    12 Free State Project 96002
    13 Freedom’s Phoenix 99024
    14 The Agitator 120641
    15 The Freeman 130164
    16 Cafe Hayek 131898
    17 Laissez Faire Books 147837
    18 Young Americans for Liberty 168564
    19 Ayn Rand Institute 189208
    20 Downsize DC 197375
       
    21 Independent Institute 198103
    22 Advocates for Self-Government 204534
    23 Strike the Root 213317
    24 Bureau Crash 2215793
    25 Vox Populi 233336
    26 Nolan Chart 234672
    27 Samizdata 256436
    28 United Liberty 263070
    29 Capitalism Magazine 276968
    30 The Atlasphere</td> 286403
       
    31 Center for a Stateless Society 321677
    32 Adam Smith.org 345286
    33 Build Freedom 346608
    34 Acton Institute 347453
    35 Liberty Pulse 354902
    36 Coyote Blog 388545
    37 The Entrepreneurial Mind 396360
    38 Freedom Watch 405343
    39 Questions and Observations 420434
    40 Foundation for Economic Education 473863

    LET’S GO LANSDALE CATHOLIC CRUSADERS!!!!!

    Updated Post from last week. The three game series for the championship of the Suburban League starts tonight at Face Off Circle in Warminster. The LC Crusaders take on the Hatboro Horsham Infidels. No one gets out alive. Hopefully, there will be parents from HH near me so I can mock and ridicule them while we’re kicking their asses.

    HHES

    I will be out of touch tonight. Hockey playoffs begin. Lose tonight and the season is over. Win and we advance to a 3 game series for the championship. It’s all on the line. Avalon will be the one cringing when her baby goes into the corner and gets smacked into the glass. I’ll be the one standing on my seat yelling at the ref and screaming at Kevin to hit somebody. I have lost my voice during certain games in the past.

    I gave him my advice this morning before I left for work: 

    NOBODY GETS OUT ALIVE

     

    Assistant Captain on far left Kevin Quinn – 3rd leading scorer for the Crusaders.

    Playoff Hockey !!

    SHSHL Varsity playoffs start this week.
    The LC Boys will take on Upper Dublin Thursday,  February 24 at  8:40 PM. 

    LC Varsity vs Wissahickon

    LC Varsity vs Wissahickon

    LC Varsity vs Wissahickon

    LC Varsity vs Wissahickon

    LC Varsity vs Wissahickon

    GO CRUSADERS!!!

    ADMIN’S CAT IS A DUMBASS

    The door to the garage wasn’t shut tight on Friday. The two cats took advantage and got into the garage to have some feline fun. They were in the garage for less than 20 minutes. Evidently, fun for Cookie meant consuming a one foot long piece of fishing line that was laying on the garage floor. We did not know she had consumed the fishing line until Sunday morning. I was upstairs trying to finish my Casey article when Avalon yelled that she needed my help. I said with what? She said there was a six inch long piece of string hanging out of Cookie’s butt. My initial urge was to grab on and keep pulling. Avalon wouldn’t let me do that.

    She insisted we call the vet. Of course he agreed with Avalon. Dollar signs were flashing before his eyes. Nothing like an emergency weekend appointment with a vet. They kept her overnight and she eventually shit out the rest of the fishing line. Sadly, there wasn’t a flounder on the other end of the line. For the one night stay, some anti-biotic medicine that she spits out, and an emergency Sunday visit, I paid $220. I think my yank the string plan would have been just as effective and a lot cheaper.

    Now you know why I need you to click that Google button. The money leaves quicker than it comes in, because I’m surrounded by dumbass cats. Plus, I think they are out to get me.