Will Putin Attack Poland & the Baltics?

Guest Post by Ray McGovern

At Thursday’s debate with Donald Trump, President Joe Biden, calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal,” claimed that he “wants all of Ukraine. … Do you think he’ll stop? … What do you think happens to Poland and other places?”

Spoiler Alert: Official Ukrainian sources confirm that Putin did stop in March 2022, after Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky agreed to forswear membership in NATO. This was the key provision in the Ukraine-Russia deal initialed by Davyd Arakhamia, who at the time was Zelensky’s chief negotiator (and his party’s faction leader in the Rada) at the talks in Istanbul at the end of March, hardly a month into the war.

The Russians lifted their objection to Ukraine joining the EU, as the Ukrainians agreed to neutrality. Security guarantees sought by Kyiv (short of NATO membership) would be worked out. The fighting would stop. Agreement on the status of Crimea would be put off to the future.

Putin and Zelensky reportedly were micromanaging the March 2022 negotiations, and at that early stage the Russians expressed readiness for the two to meet.

At the same time that Biden and other Western leaders raise the alarm that Putin will attack other parts of Europe when he’s through with Ukraine, they claim Russia can’t even take the Ukrainian province of Kharkiv, has lost more than 500,000 men to just 30,000 Ukrainians and its economy is faltering (none of which is true.)  But Cold War Western power was based on an exaggerated Soviet threat and the same is true today.

Ukrainian Negotiator Spills the Beans

Arakhamia in Ukraine’s Parliament in 2021. (Vadim Chuprina, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0)

In a November 2023 Kyiv Post report titled “Russia Offered to End War in 2022 If Ukraine Scrapped NATO Ambitions – Zelensky Party Chief,”  Arakhamia confirmed that in the March 2022 negotiations Russia proposed ending the war on the condition that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and adopt a neutral stance.

Arakhamia continued:

“Neutrality was the biggest thing for them, they were ready to end the war if we took — as Finland once did — neutrality and made commitments that we would not join NATO. This was the key point.

While negotiations continued in Istanbul, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson unexpectedly arrived in Kyiv on April 9 and said that Ukraine shouldn’t sign anything with them at all – and ‘let’s just fight.’ ”

Arakhamia’s candor was refreshing. But it came as no surprise to those of us following Ukraine in early 2022. On May 5, 2022 — a year and a half before Arakhamia spilled the beans to the Kyiv Post Ukrainska Pravda ran a report under the title “Possibility of talks between Zelensky and Putin came to a halt after Johnson’s visit:

“According to sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.

The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they [the West] are not. The collective West felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to press him.”

Three days after Johnson left Kyiv, Putin publicly stated that talks with Ukraine had “turned into a dead end.” Putin expressed confidence that Russia would ultimately prevail and added that it would “rhythmically and calmly” continue conducting the operation in Ukraine.

Putin Provides Detail

Putin addressing the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in early June.  (Ivan Sekretarev, RIA Novosti, Kremlin)

In his major speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry on June 14, Putin said the Russian troops approaching Kyiv in February-March 2022 were there “to push the Ukrainian side to negotiations.”

From Feb. 24 on, the Russians had expressed readiness for diplomacy. Interestingly, Zelensky appointed Arakhamia chief negotiator on Feb. 28.

Putin continued:

“Surprisingly, as a result, agreements that satisfied both Moscow and Kyiv were indeed reached and initialed in Istanbul. … The document was titled ‘Agreement on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine’. It was a compromise but  resolved the problems that were stated as major ones even at the start of the special military operation.

But the path to peace was rejected again. … The former UK prime minister said directly during his visit to Kyiv – no agreements. Russia must be defeated on the battlefield. … Thus they began to intensively pump Ukraine up with weapons and started talking about the need to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.”

Johnson and Zelensky walking around the center of Kiev on April 9, 2022. (President of Ukraine)

Biden & Pseudo-Experts on Russia

Who has been telling Biden that Putin “will not stop at Ukraine?” Exhibit A would be Fiona Hill, disciple of arch-Russophobe historian Richard Pipes, and national intelligence officer for Russia (2006-09).

Her insights appeared in The New York Times exactly a month before Russia invaded Ukraine.

On Jan. 24, 2022, the Times featured a guest essay by Hill titled “Putin has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It”:

“This time, Mr. Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s ‘open door’ to Ukraine and taking more territory — he wants to evict the United States from Europe. As he might put it: ‘Goodbye, America. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.’”  [Emphasis added.]

Fiona Hill’s NYT essay about Putin driving the U.S. out of Europe had a short (two-month) shelf life, as Putin’s negotiators in Istanbul extracted a Ukrainian commitment not to seek NATO membership and a stop in hostilities. Hill admitted as much in a September/October 2022 Foreign Affairs article which included, briefly, the substance of the Istanbul agreement.

This may be damning with faint praise but, in this respect, Fiona Hill showed far more integrity than the Times, which continues to deny its readers the facts about the Istanbul accord and how it showed that in March-April 2022 Putin did stop once Ukrainian negotiators agreed to forswear membership in NATO.

With Putin having provided, in his June 14 speech, chapter and verse on the (aborted by Boris Johnson) “Agreement on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine,” the Times wasted no time distorting the terms of the Istanbul accord, mostly by omission and turgid obfuscation, in publishing two highly deceptive articles on June 15.

Neither article mentions  Johnson’s wrecking-ball role in scuttling the Istanbul accord. And even the subsequent admissions of Ukrainian negotiators are mangled.

Thus, New York Times readers, and the thousands of media outlets that take their lead from the Times, are once again misled on a crucial issue — one for which there is ample official Ukrainian testimony that the Times chooses to omit or fudge. And many Americans will be inclined to believe Biden’s evidence-free claims about Putin’s ultimate objectives, and to acquiesce in the dangerously growing tension with Russia — malnourished as they are on accurate information.

For many it will come down to: Between Biden and Putin, Americans “know” whom to believe!

Putin’s Take

Speaking to Western journalists on June 5, Putin cautioned:

“You should not make Russia out to be the enemy. You’re only hurting yourself with this … They thought that Russia wanted to attack NATO. Have you gone completely crazy? … Who came up with this? It is just complete nonsense, you know? Total rubbish.”

Sadly, it is the kind of nonsense that could mislead Americans, conditioned to believe the worst of Russia, into supporting some kind of risky escalatory move by an administration determined to show how tough it is, as the November election inches closer and closer. Strap on your seatbelts.

Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).

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37 Comments
Knothing
Knothing
July 4, 2024 9:20 am

For globalist demons, the mutually assured destruction (MAD) of civilization guaranteed by nuclear weapon escalation and exchange… is a feature, not a bug.

The Ant
The Ant
July 4, 2024 9:29 am

Why else put nuke capable F-16s in Poland, other than as bait for Article 5

Anonymous
Anonymous
  The Ant
July 4, 2024 11:19 am

Exactly.
Will Putin attack Poland & the Baltics?

Uh, … yeah. AFTER the US puts missiles there and launches them into Russia. Or flies US fighters or bombers from there into Russia on strike missions.

Then they’ll claim that Russia’s response was unprovoked, Unprovoked, UNPROVOKED!

And all the sheeple will believe it. Western sheeple make this shit way too easy.

MartelsHammer
MartelsHammer
  Anonymous
July 4, 2024 2:59 pm

Yep, it’s all pretty obvious and unnecessary unless you are a globalist psychopath hell-bent on world destruction to reduce the human population to stop climate change (not kidding)…then it all makes perfect sense. Putin is a terrible person and a total criminal but that’s a Russian problem we shouldn’t care about unless he is pushed into a corner……. as he was with the Ukraine. The idiocy is the arrogance of the Western Globalist leaders to think Russia would be a pushover………Russia always follows the same pattern……at the beginning of any conflict they suck (corrupt military, incompetence etc.) and they get beaten badly but not defeated…….then they get their shit together and come back strong and kick-ass……..just like is happening now. So yes Putin will roll inot the Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania to create a buffer area after much provocation.

ss
ss
  MartelsHammer
July 4, 2024 3:06 pm

Except there is no proof of them getting their shit together.

Anthony Aaron
Anthony Aaron
  ss
July 4, 2024 4:03 pm

The commenter was speaking of historic events … and for those who doubt Russia’s war prowess — well, the Germans ran into them in WW2 and got severely bloodied.

ss
ss
  Anthony Aaron
July 4, 2024 5:53 pm

“just like is happening now” is clearly what I meant, not whether they got their shit together 80 years ago. Sure, Russia could end up steamrolling them next year or something.

But there is no proof of any such thing happening now. Feel free to show that I’m wrong with concrete examples, and without using 12 dimensional judeo-chess logic.

edit: inb4 lameass ‘yeah well, you think Ukraine is gonna have a big offensive and steamroll Russia?’

k31
k31
  Anonymous
July 4, 2024 8:20 pm

Nobody is going to believe launching fighters is not a provocation. Lies can only go so far in these narratives. The Big Lie takes more time and finesse.

ss
ss
July 4, 2024 10:47 am

Does it really matter what the lies were? The other side had most of you convinced that Odessa was going to be taken at any time, that Russia could take Kharkiv in weeks, that Wagner was going to swoop down on Kiev from Belarus at any moment, that NATO generals were being smoked on a daily basis, that nukes will fly at London, that 6 gorillion dead Ukrainians are necessary because of ‘denazification.’

Face it, the problem isn’t the liars. It’s the people who believe really obvious lies, no matter what ‘side’.

I do find it funny that this article comes from a spook preacher.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  ss
July 4, 2024 11:33 am

That whole “Russia said they’d take Kiev in three days” crap was American bullshit. I’ll admit to being surprised that Russia has taken so long to accomplish what they want, but I don’t know anything about war. Most wars take years. Ukraine had the biggest army in Europe and continual backing of the US, so in retrospect it shouldn’t be a surprise that a couple years have elapsed, especially since the initial Russian invasion was little more than a feint. They almost had a deal in April 2022 until Uncle Schlomo vetoed it, at which point Russia saw that the Ukraine actually wanted to do things the hard way and started beefing up its army.

The bigger point is that Biden was playing on Americans’ superficial understanding of history. Anytime anyone hesitates to start a war they become Neville Chamberlain. Any foreign who doesn’t take orders from Washington becomes the New Hitler. Random Americans literally spew these nuggets about Chamberlain and Hitler as if they’re revealing some secret hidden knowledge and then sit back and fold their arms, proud of their brilliance.

ss
ss
  Iska Waran
July 4, 2024 2:40 pm

“Russia said they’d take Kiev in three days”

Which I never claimed.

People who know nothing about war simply trust ‘experts’ and they find the ones who say things they like. I said Kharkiv in weeks because that was something Macgregor said this spring. It’s a city of one and a half million. It’s ridiculous. Taking a town 1/20th of that size (Bakhmut) cost Russia 20-some thousand men and many months.

“…especially since the initial Russian invasion was little more than a feint.”

What gives you that idea? You don’t feint with the majority of your forces. Find an objective that the initial invasion was a ‘feint’ for.

“They almost had a deal in April 2022 until Uncle Schlomo vetoed it”

And whose fault is it that there wasn’t a plan for that? Wouldn’t that be the most obvious thing in the world?

People pushing everyone is Hitler or everyone are Nazis are simply playing an easy card. Do you not realize how absurd it is to point out western media doing it, but then get duped by Putin or RT or these talking heads going on about denazification and the holocaust?

There is no reason to create a false dichotomy and say we must accept one ‘sides’ bullshit over the other.

ss
ss
  ss
July 5, 2024 12:53 am

C’mon downvooters. Dispute what I say without changing the topic. I’m not the one lying to you like the supposedly alt-media Prophets. I might be wrong, but I can admit it, like none of them ever do.

They make predictions weekly, monthly, that are utterly ridiculous, and only double down when they inevitably never happen. They’ve done it for years now. They are like millenarian preachers telling you about doomsday who only gather more gullible goyim when their prognostications pass by unheeded by the universe.

Face it, if you hold any of the views I mentioned this morning, you got conned. We all have to own up to it or get conned again… and again…

Do you want to be niggercattle stampeded from event to manufactured event, or real human beans?

Anonymous
Anonymous
  ss
July 5, 2024 6:05 am

That won’t happen. They’re pusscakes who think side-b mainstream narratives are superior to a-side mainstream narratives. As if their indoctrination is superior to the indoctrination those they are being played against. We can see now how the tribe of Abraham destroyed the great civilizations of Antiquity. Much as they are destroying us today.

ss
ss
  Anonymous
July 5, 2024 12:23 pm

I can’t think of a b-side conman who doesn’t play up the christian angle.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  ss
July 6, 2024 3:15 am

You retard claiming to know something about war, and then parading ridiculous strawmen arguments (Bakhmut, “majority of your forces”),
as well as using simple projection to conclude Putin or RT are doing the same as Western media.

And then talk about ‘false dichotomy’ – omg, are you braindead

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
July 6, 2024 4:31 pm

I don’t think you know what a strawman is.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  ss
July 4, 2024 11:58 am

You forgot to tell us that Russia is ‘losing’ the war, because they haven’t taken Odessa yet.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
July 4, 2024 12:12 pm

Russia and China, possiblly along with N. Korea is going to attack America. Whether that is before Poland, YOU’LL just have to wait and see. I’m not going to be here.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
July 4, 2024 12:23 pm

You forgot ‘unprovoked’ attack

ss
ss
  Anonymous
July 4, 2024 2:59 pm

I’ve said all along Odessa doesn’t matter and completely off the table anyway as long as they haven’t taken Kherson (which I don’t see happening either). I don’t recall ever saying Russia was losing, unless they do at the negotiating table. Which you only have to look at WWI to see as highly possible.

The only losers so far are the people dying, and the sheep getting sheared for every sides oligarchs, MIC, leaders, banks, etc.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
July 5, 2024 6:06 am

How stupid are you? About as dumb as the 4 morons who gave you the thumbs up. Well at least you have company.

k31
k31
  ss
July 4, 2024 8:29 pm

I was wrong that they wouldn’t do it, not that they couldn’t do it. In hindsight it looks like Russia either takes the threat of NATO way more seriously than me, or it is all just theater.

ss
ss
  k31
July 4, 2024 11:09 pm

I can’t guarantee that it is purely theater as in a staged production with only one outcome (but with real people dying) but I know this isn’t how you fight to win an actual war. But when was the last actual war? All I can think of is finishing the war judea declared in ’33 and then mopping up their placeholder ally.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  k31
July 5, 2024 5:06 pm

It’s all theater. On both sides.

beau
beau
July 4, 2024 1:36 pm

too much corruption for this shit to be stopped. making money on the dead is a feature of ‘amerikan diplomacy’. they don’t think nuclear war is so bad anymore because the deluded bastards think they will survive a nuclear war.

Frederick
Frederick
July 4, 2024 2:01 pm

No Putin isn’t stupid Poland is no joke and would kick his ass

The Central Scrutinizer
The Central Scrutinizer
  Frederick
July 5, 2024 10:36 am

Best Polock joke I’ve heard today!

Anonymous
Anonymous
July 4, 2024 7:24 pm

If he does, why should any of us give a shit?

Not my problem. Sent moar faggots to fight for Globohomo.
comment image

The Russians must be terrified.

k31
k31
  Anonymous
July 4, 2024 8:30 pm

God help us all.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  k31
July 5, 2024 6:10 am

If we’re looking for help or even inspiration we need a better God than the mainstream depiction. No God worth his holy relics would have followers on their knees waiting for Armageddon and enslavement. Which is all mainstream pseudo religion promises.

The Central Scrutinizer
The Central Scrutinizer
  Anonymous
July 5, 2024 10:39 am

Stop blaming YOUR confusion on Him and seek His Face!

Best advice you’ll ever get from me.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  The Central Scrutinizer
July 5, 2024 5:11 pm

No confusion on my part. The Christian script comes from the same tribe as Communism. The same tribe which controls central banking and both sides of the Ukraine-Russia theater. White nationalists dying on both sides serves these self appointed chosen special interests well.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
July 5, 2024 5:59 am

the US hope is they will be laughing so hard they won’t be able to fight!!

The Central Scrutinizer
The Central Scrutinizer
  Anonymous
July 5, 2024 10:37 am

Raiding butt pirates are no laughing matter, friend!!!

Anonymous
Anonymous
July 5, 2024 6:00 am

Will central banking controlled Western political puppets serve up more of Eurasia and the Europe to central banking controlled Putin? While most among us pick a side in staged for primetime war theater, the Western world is shrinking and real people are dying. I believe it’s time for someone or another to chime in and tell us the script(ure) of the people playing us like Fiddler on the Roof, and the God of mainstream depiction (indoctrination) will save us from his chosen maniacs, who have worked tirelessly 4000 years and more to destroy and/or enslave the world and all creation. Holy run on sentence Batman!

The Central Scrutinizer
The Central Scrutinizer
July 5, 2024 10:33 am

Just ask yourself how many countries Russia needs to kick the shit out of, then multiply that by all nations siding with those nations and you’ll have your answer.

Basically, they’re gonna kick the WORLD’s ass…and WE can’t stop them. That makes it even MORE inexplicable as to why we keep poking that particular bear.

ALL democracies die by suicide, and I’d say this qualifies.