Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
Has anyone noticed that Putin is conducting his “limited military operation,” by which he means limited to Donbas and the former Russian territories that are again part of Russia, as a response to US/NATO/Ukrainian initiatives? When the Russian military strikes outside the limited combat zone, it is usually a response to a Ukrainian strike into Russia out of the combat zone. After 2.5 years of conflict, Putin has made no effort to win the war. He doesn’t even seem to understand that Russia is at war, not engaged in a limited police action.
Putin has left the Ukrainian government in functioning order and has not interfered with Zelensky’s ability to continue the conflict. Kiev is intact. The government in Kiev is intact. Nothing has been done to close Ukraine’s borders from Western armament supplies. The entire initiative of the conflict is with the West. The West acts, and Putin responds. There are no Russian initiatives. Indeed, Russia was forced into the conflict by the West’s initiatives.
This is not the way to fight a war.
It is Putin’s refusal to fight and win a war that is causing the enormous expansion–the ever widening–of the war.
Notice that the Kremlin’s response to the US missile attack on Crimean civilians and a public beach is to call in the American ambassador and complain, to investigate, to send condolences, not to destroy and occupy Kiev. After all this time haven’t the Russians learned that no one pays any attention to their complaints? Why does Putin think he can shame the shameless West? Why does the Kremlin worry about over-responding to attacks? https://sputnikglobe.com/20240627/putin-will-not-take-the-bait-russia-will-respond-prudently-to-crimea-attack-1119148707.html Washington doesn’t worry about over-provoking Russia.
Let me be clear, I am on humanity’s side. I don’t want nuclear war. Putin should never have entered a conflict when he did not intend a quick victory before Washington/NATO could get involved and widen the war.
Now that French troops are in Ukraine, now that US/NATO personnel are conducting the targeting of the US long-range missiles on Russian civilians, and now that Russia is faced with the likelihood of NATO troops entering Ukraine, Putin’s response is to play into Washington’s hands by speaking of bringing North Korean troops into the conflict. Imagine the propaganda damage. North Korea is even more demonized than Russia and Putin.
Why does Putin want to widen the conflict instead of quickly winning it?
Is the reason that his central bank director convinced him Russia lacked the resources to conduct a real war? Is this why Putin endlessly emphasizes Russian nuclear capability? Does Putin lack the resources to conduct conventional war? With his central bank director’s 16% interest rates hindering the Russian economy, perhaps it is so. Putin’s central bank director left Russian central bank reserves in Western depositories where Washington could seize them. Was this incompetence or an act of treason? Washington has decided that the interest income earned by the seized Russian central bank reserves will be given to Ukraine to continue the war. So Russia’s own central bank reserves are financing Ukraine’s ability to conduct war against Russia.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia, especially the youth, were corrupted for years by Washington’s propaganda. They lost their national consciousness and became “citizens of the West.” Has Russian youth escaped from this delusion, or does it still rule?
The question before us is: Does Russia have leadership capable of comprehending that Russia has an enemy intent on her destruction and dismemberment, or will the Kremlin finally realize this at the last minute, too late to avoid nuclear war?
It is extraordinary that the fate of the world rests on Russian misperception and inadequate response to the West’s intent. As a result of Putin’s inability to act decisively, he was drawn into a conflict that has become open-ended, involving, at least in plans, troops from foreign countries. To pretend that such a conflict is a “limited military operation” is an act of irresponsibility, even evidence of reality denial.
Russia is at war with the West. She got there because she refused to acknowledge the fact. Grasping reality remains a challenge for the Kremlin which continues to enable the Ukraine conflict to spin out of control rather than use the force to decisively terminate the conflict before it ends in World War III.
Russia Considers, Russia Considers, but Never does anything.
And so the provocations continue and worsen and “are edging closer to the point of no return.”
Does it ever occur to the Kremlin that doing something, rather than “considering,” might stop the march to the point of no return?
https://www.rt.com/russia/600077-russia-teases-downgrading-diplomatic/
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I think the mistake may have been Russia took the Crimea without western interference and Russia didn’t realize the Donbas would be different. But the lie Russia was a threat to all of Europe galvanized the west. Russia doesn’t have to capability to fight the entire west without allies like China, North Korea and Iran, or nukes.
Both sides have miscalculated, which is bad for the world.
Yeah, that’s probably why Putin waited 8 years to go into Donbass. 🤦
And sorry to rain on your parade, but Russia -so far- has been fighting with one hand behind it’s back. In other words Russia already defeated the entire Western military (ground forces, artillery, air defense) with a fraction of its own military. That the conflict hasn’t involved Western air forces nor naval forces, doesn’t mean a thing in the overall picture.
Easy for Putin to do that when there is little serious opposition from the West. Few of the weapons delivered end up in Ukraine. Much of what does arrive has been announced and telegraphed for Putin’s forces to destroy. Both sides are controlled by central banking. Putin works against the West and Western political leadership facilitates the downward slide of the West. A patient and deliberate pacing on the parts of the puppets of the theater. Killing White Nationalists for false pretenses while profiteering all the way. We are seeing the central banking controlled West and the wealth thereof, served on a platter to the central banking controlled East.
Your still haven’t come up with a coherent theory, why Putin didn’t start in 2015 with “Killing White Nationalists for false pretenses”
Because they didn’t want Donbass. It was supposedly offered to them. They spent the following years assassinating separatist leaders just like Ukraine did. I don’t think Putin wanted a real war, but his handlers? Who knows. As far as killing Whitey, never let a crisis go to waste?
Pulling shit out of your ass doesn’t make a coherent theory.
You’re really not following along very well.
I’ll take your word for it! 🤡
I’ve explained this a few times about how Biden’s economic policies facilitated Putin’s economic solvency, at the expense of the dollar. Apparently, some need it explained more times than others.
Yes, what would Russia do without the US’ consumer?
You seem to be following the Paul Krugman theory of economic bullshitting.
For some explanations and logic just won’t take. Flail on moron.
‘explanations and logic won’t take’ 🤣 🤣
Explain this away, snowflake:
“Thus, over the two years of sanctions, [Western importers] lost goods worth $256.5 billion [i.e. Russian exporters lost that much revenue]
[…]
At the same time, according to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), at the end of two years, Russian exports turned out to be in the black: compared to the period before the sanctions, it was possible to earn an additional $30.9 billion (five trillion rubles) in two years.”
https://ria.ru/20240630/torgovlya-1956404874.html
“Russia already defeated the entire Western military”
Shit, then we can probably just walk into empty Western bases and pick up some good equipment.
Be free to tell us which part hasn’t been defeated yet.
I had an old retired Marine tell me today that Trump will bring war, and that he’s on the side of Russia.
He said Putin wants to take part of the USA.
I have no idea where this thinking comes from. Putin is the new Hitler who wants to take over Eastern Europe, I can see, even if I think that is BS (for now). Maybe Russia wanting to get back Alaska? Ok, but what does Alaska have that the vast expanse of undeveloped Siberia and the Russian Steppes do not have? How will Putin project force to take anything in the USA? How will anybody? China? Mexico? Canada? Iran? Anyone? The thought is a complete joke.
I can’t believe what people are willing to actually think is true. Which, in turn, makes me wonder about my beliefs, and where I may have been fooled and misdirected.
For me, it ultimately comes down to a few things:
Morals, those being in agreement with the Natural Law. So, basically, one needs to work to feed himself. No perversions, no “effendi” class, no criminality.
Justice – with no modifiers. Meaning at its most barbaric, “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.” This was actually a limit on punishment in the old days. It stopped people from burning villages because somebody scuffed someone else’s Nikes.
A willingness to protect my rights and those of the people close to me. Also, a willingness to join with and support those who think like I do.
And finally, an understanding that much of the world is like the weather. I can bitch and moan about the heat, the snow, the wind, and the rain, but I have no power to stop it. I can only prepare with sunscreen, galoshes, umbrellas, and snow shovels.
So Putin is going to cross the Bering Straight and grab Alaska? Or maybe invade Florida from Cuba? LOL
Did that Marine that told you this bullshit have a rainbow patch on his uniform?
Wall Street Paul should stick to keeping the domestic gates secure and leave war analysis to people who actually understand logistics and strategy.
That would be you right? LOL
ha ha ha…yes, I’m a prolific war analyst. I’m sure your read most of my commentary right here on TBP… stupid gammas with a bone to hone really can help themselves, now can they ?
No bone to hone, but amateur commenter experts are few and far between, actually non-existent. .
This might bring you up to speed, ‘tard…but then, maybe not. Afterall, tards gonna tard.
The Stavka has placed a heavy emphasis on efficiency in this war. Many Russian decisions at the operational-strategic level can be explained simply by their seeking the most efficient means to inflict mass casualties on the AFU with the lowest risk to themselves. Thus, any decision to transition to high-speed, mobile warfare from low-speed, positional war can be expected to follow that rubric. In other words, the Russians will launch an offensive to rout the AFU after its back is broken in positional war, rather than attack seeking to “change the game” and defeat the Ukrainians in mobile war. The “game” heavily favors the Russians and they’re not in a rush to change it!
The difference between these scenarios can be seen quite easily by comparing two very successful offensives: Operation Bagration in 1944 and the 1975 Ho Chi Minh Offensive. Bagration routed the once-mighty Army Group Center – at the cost of 180,000 killed in action, three times the total Russian death toll of this war. I’m sure the Russians would much prefer the 8,000-strong butcher’s bill of North Vietnam’s war-ending 1975 operation – and they have the strategic insight to see that modern Ukraine, as a corrupt and deeply dysfunctional garrison state propped up by endless foreign aid, is far more akin to South Vietnam than Nazi Germany.
So what does this look like in practice? The Russians are going to keep poking and prodding in their usual methodical way until part of the line collapses “in depth,” and then all hell is going to break loose.
Here’s another substack that might help your with that chronic stupid thing. I’m not offering hope, just help.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/
See also….
Why Putin Waits
Simplicius explains why the Russians are in no hurry to finish off the Ukrainian resistance:
As I’ve been pointing out from the beginning, Putin knows he’s not at war with Ukraine. He’s not even at war with the USA or the West. He’s at war with Clown World, and there are safer, easier ways to defeat his enemies than to wade through literal continents of armies to do so. He understands, as does Xi, that time is on his side.
These Multidimensional Judo-Chess grifters bug me because otherwise discerning people fall for it, but with you I’m not surprised at all.
Do you or have you ever played chess seriously ? Do you believe some people posses strategic acuity ? Or is everyone just an idiot ? It wasn’t lost on me that the armed forces of the former USSR could’ve leveled Keeeeeeeev by now ,were that their objective ., but they didn’t ?
Thank you for a very on topic and thought provoking article. Reading, I felt I was looking at the whole situation from an outside the conflict view or, as I have heard it said “the big picture”.
“Why does Putin want to widen the conflict instead of quickly winning it?”
Putin is eyeballing Hungary and Poland just for starters. He’ll be in Paris by Labor Day and dining in Buckingham Palace on Christmas based on what President Biden told me last night.
Holy crap, we don’t have much time!
I was up all night freeze drying bangers and mash for the Scottish aid packages I’m putting together.
Because his central banking handlers want Putin to make certain as many White Nationalists die as possible, on both sides. Ditto for Zelensky. More profiteering on both sides too.
“De Nazification ” was among the Kremlin’s stated objectives in this special military operation . Next thing your going to tell me is those Ukrainian Nazi’s were the good guys right ?
Or maybe he realizes that he is being baited to jump in a world war..and he is not complying
Maybe he is taking advice from Brandon. Seriously, if the premise of this article is correct, Putin is a monster. If he has sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives when he could have won this war quickly he is worse than Hitler or Stalin.
Both sides are dragging it out.
After Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, why would Russia want to fight a war the American way – shock and awe followed by eventually slinking away in defeat?
Yeah, WWI turned out great, let’s try that again! Seriously though, it was obvious that was not the plan, no matter how much people try to claim it now.
Russia has lost more men in this than all the US combat deaths since WWII, and Russia has fewer people. Add in the claim that Ukraine is Russia and it gets even worse. It’s a lot easier to slink away when it’s not your border.
The idea is to milk this war and profits for all its worth. I bet countries never mentioned are making profits from this stupid war. It’s a giant scam. The NATO psychopaths involved don’t give a shit about the lives lost. The Russians also.
I’m sorry they aren’t winning fast enough, but PCR might not understand their approach. Apparently, Russians don’t go for Shock and Awe like Americans do. Putin said his goal was to de-nazify the Ukraine. Some estimates claim they’ve killed or wounded about 1,000,000 Ukronazis while protecting the vast majority of their own forces, which started out pretty small in comparison.
They can even force the Ukrainians to dance to their tune, forcing them to send reserves from one area to another while they press on weak points at will. And they’ve successfully cleaned out NATO’s reserves of weapons to the point there’s literally nothing left to send them. That seems like winning to me. The are pretty much down to conducting terror attacks against civilians, while the Russians continue to dismantle the Ukrainians and their Western-provided weapons at low cost to themselves. And it looks like they can continue to do this for years to come. Take any metric, like artillery ammo or tanks and it looks like they can produce in a month what we produce in a year. And they’re doing it now, not years in the future, which is what all our defense companies say it will take to spool up production.
From this angle, it doesn’t look like Putin is making many mistakes. The only mistake he made that I am aware of was trusting Western diplomacy, such as the Minsk Agreements, which Germany admitted were just about buying the Ukronazis time.