Guest Post by Moon of Alabama
The Ukrainian state and its military are falling apart.
Under the new mobilization law the Ukrainian military is said to recruit/mobilize some 5,000 men per day. This is sufficient to replace current losses which are above 2,000 men per day. But the quality and level of training the new forces have is way below the level needed to survive on the frontline.
Losses are high because the mass use of Russian FAB glide-bombs is eliminating all identified agglomeration of forces. Ukraine has found no way to counter these.
For lack of armored vehicles several of the new brigades which were supposed to be mechanized will be pure infantry forces. They will be able to hold positions until they are bombed but will not have the means to attack.
The high rate of mobilization has led to a lack of men power in the rest of the society. Agricultural and industrial productions are down. People who can afford to do so avoid taking jobs for fear of being identified for military service. Others attempt to flee abroad (machine translation):
In the Odessa region, an attempt to illegally travel abroad was stopped by 100 men at once. They had to cross the border on foot and paid from 5 to 18,5 thousand dollars for this.This is reported by the State Bureau of Investigation.
In revenge for Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure the Russian forces continue to dismantle Ukraine’s capacities. The electricity network is on the verge of falling apart. Electricity is only available for 10 hours per day. A few Russian hits on those switching stations which receive supply from Europe could finish it off.
The Ukrainian state is bankrupt:
Figures vary, and the Ukrainian government is increasingly coy about releasing economic data sets, but the Ukraine’s economy is currently around $180-190bn in size. To put that into context, that is around 11 times smaller than Russia’s economy and 131 times smaller than the US economy.
…
According to politico, Ukraine borrowed $58bn in 2022, $46bn in 2023 and is set to borrow $52bn in 2024. So, in just three years, Ukraine will have borrowed 82% of GDP.Ukraine needs to borrow this much because its government spends almost twice as much each year as it receives in income from taxation and other sources.
The Central Bank of Ukraine is trying to help by devaluating its currency. Over the last six month it lost about 10% of its value. The further ‘printing’ of money, which will heat up inflation, is expected.
Private lenders continue to ask for repayments of loans:
Ukraine has suffered a setback in its quest to complete the outline of a debt restructuring before the end-of-August expiry of a two-year payment freeze agreed by private holders of near $20 billion in outstanding international bonds.The government announced on Monday it had not reached agreement with a group of bondholders, raising the specter that the war-torn country might slip into default.
The blame game for the worsening of Ukraine’s military positions is costing the jobs of more commanders (machine translation):
Against the background of the continuing difficult situation for Ukraine at the front, public criticism of the AFU command is growing.MP Mariana Bezuglaya again spoke out against Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. She said that after receiving his position, he could not “go beyond” outdated management methods and became “even more authoritarian”.
“In this stressful situation, against the background of this huge responsibility, he has become even more authoritarian, increasingly tightening the screws and returning to the so – called classic techniques of the Soviet army,” Bezuglaya said in an interview with journalist Natalia Moseychuk.
She bases her opinion on messages that come to her from the military.
Recall that the People’s Deputy began to actively “wet” the commander-in-chief, as she had previously done with Zaluzhny, who was later dismissed.
However, in addition to Syrsky, she criticizes much harsher Yuriy Sodol is the commander of the Joint Forces and the Khortytsia group, which operates in the Pokrovsky direction (where the AFU has been losing ground most actively in recent months).
A number of activists like Serhiy Sternenko are also in solidarity with Bezugla in their antipathy to the general.
And yesterday the campaign against Sodol was joined by the chief of staff of” Azov ” Bogdan Krotevich. He said that he had filed an application with the State Bureau of Investigation against the Ukrainian general for committing “war crimes”.
Yesterday evening Sodol was replaced by a former leader of the 36th Marine Brigade who’s track record is in no way better that Sodol’s.
Syrski will be the next to fall.
The Russian forces now have the men and equipment to largely overrun the Ukrainian lines. But doing so would cost a significant amount of casualties. They are therefore just waiting for the Ukrainian army to exhaust itself and to fall by its own means. Only after a large scale breakdown of Ukrainian defenses will the order be given to proceed.
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