The Race for Strategic Commodities in World War 3

Guest Post by Nick Giambruno

Air Base 201 is the world’s largest and most expensive drone base. It’s the Pentagon’s most strategic military asset in sub-Saharan Africa.

The US military built this enormous and remote base in Niger—one of the poorest countries in the world (average annual income of $631)—near the city of Agadez in the middle of the vast desert.

Officially, Air Base 201 is there for US military operations to fight “terrorism” in West and North Africa.

Unofficially, it’s there to block Russian and Chinese influence in a region with vast reserves of strategic commodities.

Unfortunately for Washington, the US is on the verge of losing its treasured drone base and, therefore, its geopolitical influence over the resource-rich region.

In July 2023, the military of Niger overthrew its leader, who was widely considered to be a stooge of the US and France, the former colonial power.

The coup in Niger was part of an accelerating trend. Western allies are falling like dominoes in Africa as the proxy wars of World War 3 heat up and the major powers scramble to secure strategic resources.

Since 2020, military coups have replaced pro-Western governments in Burkina Faso, Sudan, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Gabon, and Chad with neutral governments or regimes aligned with Russia and China.

A recent election in Senegal saw the unpopular leader—widely viewed as a French puppet—thrown out, though French troops are still present in the country for now.

Below is the geopolitical map of Africa as I see it.

World War 3 and Strategic Commodities

Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars.

However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers.

That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome.

World War 3 is unlikely to be a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia, and China.

Instead, the conflict will play out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars.

In that sense, World War 3 is already well underway, even though most don’t recognize it. The recent wave of coups in Africa is part of this global conflict.

As I see it, World War 3 is a conflict between two geopolitical blocks.

The first block consists of the US and its allies who have hitched their wagons to the unipolar world order.

I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization.

A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends.

The other block comprises Russia, China, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order.

Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other countries.

BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order.

Some countries don’t fall decisively into one category. For example, Egypt is a major US ally and a member of the BRICS+. I’ve put these countries in a separate Non-Aligned category in the above map. They are prime arenas of competition for NATO & Friends and BRICS+.

In short, BRICS+ wants to transform the current world order from unipolar to multipolar and give themselves a bigger seat at the table in the process.

NATO & Friends want the unipolar status quo to prevail.

That’s World War 3, and it’s happening right now.

The recent wave of coups in Africa should be seen in this context.

Niger and Uranium

There are only two reasons the major foreign powers would care about impoverished and isolated Niger: 1) Air Base 201 and 2) the uranium industry, which I’ll get to in a minute.

Recently, the US government sent a delegation of senior officials to meet with Niger’s new military government, who expressed their concern over Niger’s potential relationship with Russia.

Niger’s military government was not impressed. They thought the US officials had a condescending attitude as they demanded Niger return to “democracy” and dictated to them which countries they were allowed to have relations with.

Further, the US did not follow standard diplomatic protocol because Niger was not informed about the composition of the delegation, the date of its arrival, or its agenda.

Shortly after the meeting, the military government of Niger announced on national television “with immediate effect” the termination of its military cooperation agreement with the US government. It declared the US presence unconstitutional and not in the nation’s interest.

After intense negotiations failed to secure the US presence in the country, the Pentagon ordered the withdrawal of all military forces from Niger.

With the recent announcement, the US government has little choice but to abandon Air Base 201—unless it declares war on Niger—and, with it, the geopolitical influence over the region and its vast reserves of strategic commodities.

It’s likely going to be a big win for BRICS+ as Niger becomes more aligned with Russia and China and encourages other countries to do the same.

Recently, Russia delivered to Niger 100 military instructors and anti-aircraft systems. It’s likely the Russian presence will grow.

Niger is one of the largest uranium producers in the world.

Today, the impoverished country is responsible for 5% of global uranium production and is crucial for European supplies. Analysts estimate that 24% of European Union uranium imports came from Niger before the coup.

Take France, for example. According to the World Nuclear Association, nuclear power generates around 70% of the country’s electricity.

(Nuclear power plants account for most of the demand for uranium, which is inseparably linked to the uranium price and market cycles.)

Analysts estimate that imports from Niger accounted for around 33% of France’s uranium needs before the recent coup.

Anti-French sentiment runs deep in Niger due to its colonial history. It’s doubtful France can depend on uranium supplies from the country anymore.

That’s why the coup in Niger puts European energy security at risk.

The uranium market is already tight, and finding alternative supplies is difficult. For example, bringing a new uranium mine online typically takes ten years.

In short, uranium has a situation with precarious supply and growing demand.

There is only one way for this situation to resolve itself: for the uranium price to go up, which is precisely what has happened recently as the uranium price reached a 16-year high.

One of the main investment implications of World War 3 is a scramble for strategic resources—like uranium—as BRICS+ and NATO & Friends race to secure their supplies.

The situation in Africa in general and Niger in particular is an excellent example of this trend.

In short, I think World War 3 will cause increased demand and unstable supplies. Higher prices are the likely outcome.

That’s why obtaining exposure to strategic commodities could be a winning move.

The key is to get positioned in the best strategic resource stocks before World War 3 accelerates.

That’s why I just released an urgent new report with all the details.

It’s called The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.

Click here to download the PDF now.

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