Originally Posted at Free Market Shooter
With the midterm elections over, the never-ending US election cycle has already moved on to the 2020 Presidential elections. And President Trump is anything but a sure thing to win, as FMShooter has previously pointed out:
Comparing the 2018 results with the 2016 Presidential election results will leave anyone who wants to see a Trump win a little worried. Trump will need to capture one of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, without losing Ohio or Florida, to retain the Presidency. If those states stay blue and the rest of the map holds, this will result in a loss:
Whether it happens in 2020 or 2024, Trump will almost certainly be replaced at the ballot box by a Democrat. And while many have speculated on who will represent the DNC on the Presidential ticket in 2020, few have considered what an incoming Democrat president could accomplish, whenever the political pendulum swings the other way. With that said…
What would be more dangerous for the country – a Democrat Presidential win in 2020, or one in 2024?
It is hard to even project two years into the future, much less six, especially when it remains difficult to even speculate on who will face Trump in 2020. The wagering markets at Betfair and Predictit favor the likes of Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, and plenty of other establishment names. None are particularly strong, and all could be expected to fit a globalist agenda that wouldn’t be too different from nearly all of the post-Eisenhower Presidents.
However, Trump himself may have changed the political landscape significantly enough to allow another “independent” candidate to co-opt the DNC ticket. Michael Bloomberg and Mark Cuban are the most likely to succeed here – and Cuban is likable and business-saavy enough to capture a great deal of the Trump vote. While Bloomberg could be a tyrannical disaster in the mold of Raymond Cocteau, Cuban could turn out to be a Democratic version of Trump, assuming the DNC didn’t co-opt his platform too much.
Whoever it is, a Trump loss in 2020 may very well coincide with a market and/or economic catastrophe. Trump has been gloating continuously with every new market high and good data print. The “everything bubble” has been reinflated courtesy of QE, ZIRP, Operation Twist, and a number of other fiscal and monetary policies that generated a lot of cheap money – which flowed right back into the hands of the same bankers and politicians who caused the last calamity.
The crash that enabled the rise of eight years of Obama policies could end up being an eerie foreshadowing of what is to come for Trump, whether it is in 2020 or 2024.
If Trump manages to win in 2020, he is all but assured to preside over an economic and/or debt collapse. Trump could capitalize on the situation politically, assigning blame to the politicians, deep state, and corporate cabal that has been the catalyst of the past crashes. Or it could consume his second term, perhaps to the point where he is forced to resign.
A weak economy led to eight years of George W. Bush, and the 2008 crisis led to eight years of Obama. Eight years of Trump and an estimated debt at least $30 trillion (not counting unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare) could bring about wholesale changes to the country’s government, and they could easily be socialist and draconian in nature. Given current demographic trends, kicking the Democrat can to 2024 could prove disastrous, as the party could have sole control over every branch of government, as John Wilder points out:
If every future election has a foregone conclusion, that leaves the President as a single party leader of the Left. And in Washington D.C. the Left has been consistently more disciplined on voting, though they do tend to form circular firing squads on policy. Given the thin Senate majority now, another decade of demographic change might allow truly uniform and consolidated power as all legislative bodies are captured along with the Presidency.
And at that point the United States is a de facto single party state, with a minority party that is just for show. A list of single party states that look like this includes such human rights wonders and great vacation spots as Turkey, South Africa, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. I mean, who wouldn’t love to live in those places?
A globalist/establishment 2020 Democrat President in the mold of Theresa May/Emmanuel Macron/Angela Merkel could bring the country to the point of a similar level of populist anger to allow a fiscal conservative and/or nationalist to win in 2024, but a lot of that would hinge on the economy’s performance.
For all we know, Trump policy could successfully kick the can forward another two years before losing in 2020, leaving a Democrat President holding the bag.
Everyone expected the market to nose-dive even in 2016 after a seven-year bull run – and yet here we are, almost three years later, with the market up 19% since Trump took office (factoring in the 12/4/2018 3+% nose-dive). Even with signs of slowdown, the market could fall substantially and still need to go a lot further before Trump starts to wear egg on his face.
A 2020 Democrat could potentially preside over a downturn that would leave Trump saying “I told you so” – while simultaneously ushering in nationalist GOP replacement in 2024. But that seems to be the rosiest of scenarios. While most assume that the country could be divided enough to enable a full-on socialist to take power in 2024, demographics might already make that a foregone conclusion for the country, with a 2020 win giving them a four-year head start to implement a swarm of leftist policies.
While it should be easy to say eight years of Trump would enable a more dangerous leftist leader in 2024, political trends and a faltering economy could cement left-leaning leadership anyway. As is the dilemma with projecting anything out too far into the future, the answer is not as simple as it seems.
If it’s going to be 2024, I’m a lot more concerned about Gavin Newsome getting nod for Pres. He’ll have a credible record with his initiatives pushed through by supermajority in Cal’s senate & assembly, can use the “6th largest economy of the world” thing, he has the donors and backing, absolutely perfected messages, youthful age and polished image. And by then, he’ll have his own record. History shows a number of presidents from Cal as well. As a bonus, good or bad, he’s got (or will have) support of the Feinstein and Polosi and other ‘top leaders’ that will anoint him. Things seem just too quiet with this one. And I already know I’m fcked since I’m in Socal.
I looked at his profile and you are correct; youthful, polished, has had a hand in politics for several years. His only downfall may be that he is a white male, despised by many leftists. But here’s what would definitely help with his campaign (because the left cannot see past the stupidity & incompetency of this woman)…. he is Pelosi’s nephew by marriage. How convenient.
The Left (and most of what pretends to be the Right) will get in bed with anybody to get what they want- even white males.
Folks, its really simple. DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY. Trump will, almost certainly, be the last Republican President. Even if ALL immigration, illegal and legal, were stopped, it’s already over.
The immigrants who are here, which overwhelmingly vote Democrat, have been and will continue to reproduce at astronomical rates, making more democrat voters. The only course of action I envision to prevent this slow-motion train wreck would be large scale ICE law enforcement action to root out this issue.
Seems to me the perfect campaign against Newsome would have lots of videos and photos showcasing what he helped turn SF into, a shithouse for the homeless.
If the wrongs of the 2018 mid-term elections are not righted, there will never be another fairly elected politician in the US. 7 Seats in California alone turned from a Republican win on election night to “found ballots”, Mail-ins, and “adjustments” up to three weeks after election day and EVERY SINGLE ONE turned out a Democrat win. Put on top of this corruption the Arizona and Florida fiasco’s and, voila, we have a Democratic House. Nancy, and dare I say Paul Ryan, are grinning from ear to ear.
Whether or not the populace want Trump to be our president for another four years matters not. The fix will be in to cheat the American people out of their choice and GIVE them what the elites have decided we need!
You can be sure of one thing…..there are plenty of red-blooded, gun toatin’, constitutionalists in this country that some way, some time, this country will become once again what it was founded to be.
The worse president ever will be the next one. In fact if past is prologue the next grand poohba will make us miss the last one.
All I wanted was a damn wall. Where’s my damn wall?
Republicans lost the popular vote by 3 million illegal voters in california. By the 2020 election, 4 million illegals, and 4 million legal immigrants will have been added to the country. We will never have another republican again, by 2024 at the very latest. 8 more years of lefty indoctrination, and we will be a socialist commie hellhole for 80 to 100 years. Simple demographics.
IF there was somewhere to go, i’d be there. Shitstorms a comin.
You guys are a riot. How is it that you apparently read these offerings, and express an opinion, and yet can’t seem to remember what has been said from article to article? If there is one thing that has been consistent on this site it has been the general opinion that the US is a single party system and has been for a long time. You have seen it expressed many times and yet you cling to the illusion that you vote for the good guys. You still believe that they count your vote so as to elect your politician and that there is a shred of difference between one elite CEO and another elite CEO. If you are willing to accept that they don’t care what you think in the day to day machinations of making war abroad and at home, how could you possibly think that they are even remotely interested in who you think might be the next president? I know that I would prefer not to count your votes and I don’t have even a shred of access to the system. There are thousands of troglodytes who touch those ballots and they can all be corrupted with a very small amount of money. Many writers here have tried over and over again to explain this to you and yet, you insist that it can not be true. There are two parties, even more. They do count my vote, although there is no way to confirm that. They work tirelessly to ensure that only legitimate citizens are allowed to express an opinion all the while knowing that millions of the dead and corrupted immigrants are flooding the polls.
Stop wondering what demographic shift is going to usher in a new era of terror and ask the more sane question. What useful idiot are they going to put into the oval office in six more years? There are only two useful skills for a president. He has to be stupid and he has to be soulless. The rest is just window dressing.
I was wondering who else would pick up on this theme. The whole article is an elaborate spooge-fest trying to make it clear that there are no alternatives to the Money & Power, Inc. Party, Blue Division or Red Division. It’s only marketing, dumbasses. Quit buying what they’re selling.
HR; You’re right of course:
I was betting on a 4th Turning Greater Depression Squared, with a side bet on The Sweet Meteor of Death.
Then maybe the Dimacrap machine’s chihuahua TacO’Rourke. Corn on the outside, youdonwannaknow on the inside.
TINVOWOOT
We haven’t had an elected President in this nation in a long time. They are selected.
-Trump was selected, the powers-that-be who had their thumb on the scale for HRC lost confidence either in her ability or desire to follow directions, so they refused to steal enough votes for her election, and Trump is what we got.
-Romney had zero intention of winning the race in 2012, and Obama was re-elected.
-McCain had zero intention of winning the race in 2008, and Obama was inaugurated. HRC was paid to drop out of the Dem race, keeping her opposition research (which would have sank the Obama campaign) under wraps in return for the nomination in 2016. Quid pro quo.
-Bush was still following directions in 2004, so the loser/poseur Kerry was nominated to be the fall guy.
-Bush was selected in 2000, due to the fundamentally erratic personality of Gore. Gore also got real well paid to essentially drop out. That Florida race (by any count) was truly too close to call, a few hundred “votes” out of millions. The SC (operating under orders no doubt) did the selection.
-Dole never ran to win against Clinton in 1996.
-Bush never ran to win in 1992. He had done his bit for his globalist handlers, and wanted to retire.
-Dukakis was selected in 1988 to ensure that Bush would get in to do the job they wanted him to do in 1980.
-The hapless Mondale (watch his acceptance speech at the DNC in 1984) never meant to win, and Reagan got his second term.
-Carter was not up to the globalist job in 1980, but Reagan was NOT intended to be the candidate. It was supposed to be Bush, but (believing that his CIA handlers and globalist patrons) he was unable to do retail politics, and Reagan snuck in. They tried to elevate Bush, but sent Hinckley with too-small a caliber weapon. If Reagan had been shot by a .38 or a 9mm, or more, he likely would have died.
-Carter was chosen as a place keeper in 1976 to replace the hapless Ford, who was selected after the coup that removed Nixon from office.
-McGovern was selected to oppose Nixon in 1972 to wring the life out of the pacifist crew in the Dems, paving the way for future Dem viability.
-Nixon won in 1968 after the faux-left shit all over the stage on cue, showing that they wanted to ensure a Republican got blame for their war.
-Johnson was selected in 1964, there was no chance Goldwater would ever prevail.
– Kennedy was selected with bought/stolen votes in 1960. They whacked him when they lost confidence in their control over him.
-Ike won in 1956, facing Stevenson in another obviously hopeless campaign. -Ike got recruited and selected to win in 1952 over another hapless Stevenson “campaign” that really never was.
-Truman got selected over Dewey with bought votes in 1948.
-FDR got put in and kept in from 1932-1944 to ensure that the gains of 1913-1918 in fiscal control could be solidified and extended through strict punishment of the population through economic deprivation, then by euphoric war-time profits.
-Hoover got in in 1928 over Landon in an election that deserves a real close look. That was a very important real race which we are told turned on anti-Catholic bias. I do not know. That might be the last real ELECTION (vs SELECTION) of a President we have had in these United States.
As always, other opinions on these events exist.
No wonder Corbett calls it “sElection“.
Hoover ran against Al Smith. Landon ran against FDR in ’36.
Just as long as the next President isn’t personal friends with a BILLIONAIRE PEDOPHILE who just folded in civil court YESTERDAY and agreed to pay millions more in damages to the girls.
Just as long as the next President orders their UNCONFIRMED TEMPORARY AG to aggressively prosecute BILLIONAIRE PEDOPHILES and investigate their associates (even if the associate is HIMSELF).
USA is toast either way. No matter who is elected in 2020 26 to 30 trillion in debt will sink the ship. When the SS an welfare checks stop all hell will break loose.
Democrats are dangerous, period.
Their “conservative” counterparts, the RINOs, are equally dangerous.
That said, I consider Trump a moderately rightwing speedbump who has limited mileage due to the expanding leftwing socialist demographic in the US. At some point the market will tank and corporations will face serious bankruptcy in the face of insurmountable private and public debt.
The answer? More centralization and government control. The people will vote for corruption.
During the Great Depression almost one-third of Americas were rural and could eke out a subsistence life on the farm. Not anymore.
It doesn’t matter who is in charge. There’s going to be a lot of pain to go around for everyone.
There have been no 1-term Presidents since Bush Sr. and I don’t think it will be any different this time. The D’s will field a candidate that has no chance of winning. Kameltoe Harris, Bernie, Biden, Beto, Booker and Jokahontas are deeply unpopular outside of the Soy Coastal cities. (((Mark Cuban))) and (((Michael Bloomberg))) have no charisma as billionaire kleptocrats. I hope they select someone really stupid like Kameltoe or Booker because that would at least be entertaining.
I see Democrat voters registering to vote in swing states outside the state they belong to . And be given mail in ballots by Democrat cronies in swing states. And why not?
Democrats tend to rent and don’t really own property anyways. So what’s the difference if they lease a $1 dollar apartment in a swing state?
Meanwhile, the Republicans will play by the rules and declare themselves losers 2 weeks after the election.
The silver lining is I don’t think Democrats get more then 20 states going forward. And the Republican Senate will become more radicalized.
This is why we have the Electoral College, so the larger states don’t overwhelm the smaller states in presidential elections. That’s one thing the founders got right. We are a Republic, and the Electoral College is reflection of that. Democracy sucks.
First you assume a one termer……wrong. The deomcrats will all get 2 terms from here on and forever. Because theybamnesty illegals and reduce borders to rubble. So, the 2028 2nd democrat presidency is the nefarious one because we would have had 8 years of the first one to undo Trump and resume obamas bullshit. And the next one will go full socialism, kill guns and then the constitution and then upon ending his second term (having already killed the constitution) will elect themselves dictator. By 2036 its all over folks one way or another. We are broke no matter what and then the red stuff starts to spill if not sooner. The great white american genocide will become history.
Only some of the states require the Electoral College representatives to vote based on their state’s popular vote. If you don’t vote in one of those states, your vote is useless. The Electoral College determines who becomes president. How many times do I have to say it? Many of you are getting worked up about something you have no influence over.