Guest Post by Scott Adams
I have some spare time this morning so I thought I would solve the North Korean nuclear threat problem.
The current frame on how all sides are approaching the problem is a win-lose setup. Either North Korea wins – and develops nukes that can reach the mainland USA – or the United States wins, and North Korea abandons its nuclear plans, loses face, loses leverage, and loses security. Our current framing of the situation doesn’t have a path to success.
So how do you fix that situation?
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
First we must acknowledge that a win-lose model has no chance of success in this specific case because North Korea responds to threats by working harder to build nukes. That’s no good. You need some form of a win-win setup to make any kind of deal. That’s what I’m about to suggest. And by winning, I mean both sides get what they need, even if it isn’t exactly what they said they want.
What the U.S. wants is a nuclear-free North Korea. That would be our win.
What North Korea wants is an ironclad national defense, prestige, prosperity, and maybe even reunification of the Koreas on their terms. So let me describe a way to get there.
The main principle to keep in mind is that you can almost always reach a deal when two parties want different things. If we frame the situation as North Korea wanting nuclear weapons, and the U.S. not wanting them to have those nukes, no deal can be reached. There is no way for North Korea to simultaneously have nukes while having no nukes.
So you need to reframe the situation. The following deal structure does that.
Proposed North Korean Peace Deal
China, Russia, and U.S. sign a military security agreement to protect
BOTH
North Korea and South Korea from attack
BY ANYONE
for 100 years, in return for North Korea suspending its ICBM and nuclear weapons programs and allowing inspectors to confirm they are sticking to the deal.
At the end of a hundred years, North Korea and South Korea agree to unify under one rule. No other details on how that happens will be in the agreement. North Korea will be free to tell its people that the Kim dynasty negotiated to be the rulers of the unified country in a hundred years. South Korea will be free to announce that unification is a goal with no details attached. We will all be dead in 100 years, so we can agree to anything today. (That’s the key to making this work – all players will be dead before the end of it.)
The U.S. withdraws military assets from South Korea.
South Korea and North Korea reduce their non-nuclear military assets that point at each other.
Over the course of the 100-year deal, there could be a number of confidence-building steps in the agreement. For example, in ten years you might have a robust tourist arrangement. In twenty years, perhaps you can do business across borders. In fifty years, perhaps a unified currency (by then digital).
A hundred years is plenty of time for the Kim family to make their fortunes and move to Switzerland, or wherever, before unification is an issue. The deal might require some sort of International amnesty agreement for any North Korean leaders looking to get out of the country before unification.
Under this proposed deal structure all sides get what they want. North Korea’s leader can tell his people that their nuclear program was a big success because it resulted in the United States withdrawing forces, and it led to an eventual Korean unification on his terms. There is no opposition press in North Korea to dispute that framing. This looks like total victory to North Korea. That’s a win.
For the United States, a credible deal to get rid of North Korean nukes is a win. China and Russia would look like the adults in the room. They win too.
South Korea wins too, obviously.
And this deal would probably result in Nobel Peace Prizes for the leaders of all countries involved.
Students of history will recall that Great Britain agreed to lease Hong Kong from China for 99 years to avoid any risk of China taking Hong Kong militarily. The long lease period allowed both countries to agree to a deal that could not have been reached for a shorter time period. And it gave everyone time to plan for the peaceful transfer. No two situations are alike, but you can see how a hundred-year deal makes it easy to agree to difficult things today. We’ll all be dead before any of it matters. And if you work toward a common goal for a hundred years, the odds are good that it can happen. One way or another.
This is the sort of deal that would have been impossible in prior years. But the Trump administration understands the structure of dealmaking. This solution is available for the taking.
Update: President Trump tweeted that trade between China and North Korea is up 40% in the first quarter. Look at how he frames it:
This is what I have been describing as Trump’s go-to strategy of creating two ways to win and no way to lose. In this case, China either clamped down on North Korea (we win), or we can say we tried to get them to help and they refused.
That’s a free pass to do whatever we need to do, no matter how much China dislikes it. Hey, we tried it the other way. Clearly it didn’t work.
And it sets the table for all sides to get more serious about solving this non-militarily. Would you want President Trump to have a free pass to kill you?
My suggested deal structure is the only non-military option, as far as I can tell.
Greetings,
This mess was created by the United States, the UN and the Soviet Union after WWII. The Koreans suffered terribly because the Allied powers could not stop fighting amongst themselves with each Superpower supporting a different and competing government. The only positive thing to come out of any of this is that at least it didn’t lead to a nuclear war back in the ’50’s
No, MacArthur could have solved this problem once and for all and Ike held him back.
Let me take you back to 1953: the US, although demobilizing, had by far the most powerful military in the world. China was a desperately poor country that couldn’t even feed itself. The USSR was big and evil but also mostly tapped out from WW2, and the USSR’s nuclear weapons AND delivery systems were far behind the US. “MAD” was not yet a concept, as neither side had enough weapons to totally destroy the other, and the US was far, far ahead of anyone else in approaching that ability. At this brief point in time, the USA could have used nuclear weapons without real fear of retaliation, and by doing so could have wiped out the communist/monarchist Norks and set China back even further.
MacArthur if I’m not mistaken was never under command of Ike during Korea but was under Truman who retired him.
The only losers under Mr. Adams proposal are the North Korean citizens. What is another 100 years of privation for them if it calms the world stage.
Otherwise, it is a fine analysis of what might work to satisfy President Trump and allow the possible true normalization of our relationship with China.
How true, the most innocent (the meek inherit the earth, so I’m told) get assraped for another 100 years.
Adams’ view is intruiging but it’s just a flavor of kicking the can down the road.
If this involved a country that was not so evil – for example, Iran – his approach would seem much more reasonable.
However, NK is as depraved as they come, with a bizarre fusion of communism and monarchism in a society so horrific it makes 1984 look not so bad.
China isn’t going to do anything because it likes to use NK to weaken and handicap the US and US allies (SK, Japan, Taiwan), and it treats NK like a beat-up dangerous dog that is more dangerous to strangers than to its keeper (China).
Negotiating anything more that works to NK’s benefit is rewarding them and setting a terrible precedent.
If NK wasn’t directly threatening the USA, which it is, the option of walking away and letting the locals deal with it would be a good option.
However, the USA, as a global empire and putative top dog, cannot simply ignore and do nothing about direct threats of nuclear attack, even if they come from a sub-shit country like NK. Unfortunately, for global strategic reasons the US needs to hit NK incredibly hard, so hard it will be a permanent example in the history books. We still have enough conventional might to do this, and need to plan and execute a revised “shock and awe” cranked up to 111. It will be a bloody mess, but the alternative is a much worse bloody mess, probably a nuclear WW3, 5-10 years (or less) in the future.
From Ender’s Game, where Ender beats a bullying classmate to near death:
“Knocking him down won the first fight. I wanted to win all the next ones, too. So they’d leave me alone.”
– Orson Scott Card, Ender’s Game, Ch. 3
“…We still have enough conventional might to do this, and need to plan and execute a revised “shock and awe” cranked up to 111….”
never mind the MILLIONS of South Koreans who would die
Don’t I recall Clinton solving the NK nuke problem way back in the 90’s?
Just as good as all other Klinton “solutions” it would seem.
The Klintons are mostly good at “solving” the problem resulting from honest people crossing their path.
It’s all Bush’s fault. NK and SK were on a path to reunification 17 yrs ago and factories had been built along the DMZ run with NK labor, but Bush made his infamous Axis of Evil speech and both countries backed off. Then NK started working on nukes.
Basically, when in doubt about anything that has happened since 2000 it is likely either Bush’s or Israel’s fault and in the few cases where it’s not clear, then the culprit is Clinton. I don’t think Obama had the balls to cause any serious trouble anywhere.
First of all only the New Territories of Hong Kong were subject to that 99 year lease. Hong Kong proper was ceded in perpetuity to the British but after 99 years the British were in no position to enforce that.
The problem we have with allowing North Korea to use its nuclear capability as a bargaining chip is that North Korea is a small nation and one of the poorest in the world. If we go down that road it could lead to every two bit dictator of a small country acquiring nuclear arms to get a ‘guarantee’ for their regime. However, there is another way to gain Chinese and Russian cooperation that involves just that.
Taiwan is a nation with a population about the same as North Korea and a need for a guarantee it won’t be attacked by a Great Power. Vietnam is a nation with 4 times the population of North Korea’s and a similar fear of its neighbor. Would China like to see them use their greater resources developing a nuclear arsenal? I don’t think so. How could China assert its dominance over Vietnam, Taiwan and the South China Sea if those two nations had nuclear arsenals that could destroy the People’s Republic of China?
Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for a ‘guarantee’ from, among others, Russia. So much for Great Power ‘guarantees’. However would Putin have grabbed Crimea and allowed Russian backed militias to wage war in the Don Basin if Ukraine could obliterate Moscow?
When the same shoe is on another foot the fit may not be as comfortable so Trump could let it be known in Moscow and Beijing that we would look the other way if OUR proxies wanted to go nuclear UNLESS China and Russia see to it there’s are disarmed.
The US doesnt want a nuclear free N Korea…the US wants the position on the doorstep of China. This “problem” is not meant to be “solved”. Why do you think that China built those islands in disputed territorial waters and laid down some surface to airs?
Notice how for the time being no one is looking at Iran or their nuke program. These are only “problems” when the people are TOLD they are problems. One would think that after the amount of questionable news that has been revealed to be false, folks would take a moment to question everything that is released to the public as information no matter the side releasing it. The “thinkers” of this country only tend to be groupies of one side or the other and cheer on anything that identifies with their train of thought and condemn anything of the other side all the while pretending to be smart enough to see whats going on.
Meanwhile, whats actually important; the US is collapsing under debt as states “struggle” to produce “budgets” that look more like wish lists. Distractions abound while satirical comics solve problems.
Iran isn’t conducting nuclear tests. Its ‘bomb’ is a future problem that, in large part, depends on how the issue of North Korea’s existing arsenal is dealt with.
The US is on China’s ‘doorstep’ via our bases in Guam and Japan and, as we have found, ground wars on the Asian mainland are not the best strategy for the US military. We got ‘stuck’ with South Korea as a result of our disarming Japan as Korea had been part of the Japanese Empire.
The problem now is South Korea is a major economic power and has a population twice that of the North. In any conventional war between North and South Korea the South would prevail. This being the case the North has to widen the war to force China to come to its aid and deter the US from using its military to bring the fighting to a quick conclusion. To do this it will attack not just South Korea but Japan too knowing the US would have to join the fight.
I have read a lot about Iran’s nuclear program. I am almost an expert on that subject. Iran may or may not have studied atomic fission in a very small and academic way in the past, but Iran has never had an atom bomb program. Never. It is and has always been a wholly manufactured crisis (as Gareth Porter termed it). In other words, bullshit. In moar other words, zionist propaganda.
The reason you don’t hear about it now is because Iran’s nuclear facilities are the most internationally monitored on the planet and Iran is in full compliance with the JCPOA as signed by the P5+1.
Not to worry, the neocons have Trump in their back pocket and are still plotting war.
“Iran isn’t conducting nuclear tests”.
Iran and NK are friends, I’ve always sort of wondered if NK is actually testing Iranian bomb designs for them.
No fact based reason for wondering that, maybe just my overly suspicious mind at work, but the more I think about it the more I think it could be possible.
“…In any conventional war between North and South Korea the South would prevail….”
doubtful, but if true then why is the U.S. still there?
Give those cock-sucking NK’s a good nuclear suppository.
The “problem” of North Korea could have been solved decades ago. The simple fact of the matter is that neither the US or Chinese governments want the “problem” to be solved. The Chinese want a buffer state between them and South Korea, and the US needs a token enemy to justify its bloated military budget. As a bonus, the US government has a target to bomb, when it needs to distract the plebs.
North Korea is not a rogue nation, it’s a deep state puppet state with a specific purpose. I agree with the above people saying it’s a problem not meant to be solved. It’s a lever ready to be pulled.
“That’s the key to making this work – all players will be dead before the end of it.”
Holy shit that was funny.
The Russians Chinese and the UN will reason with Kim. He will become peaceful and non nuclear. Unicorns will also fart rainbows.
Way to many assumptions on how the N Koreans would react to logic, and total ignoring the fact that the populace there is is essentially chattel .
The only danger to the US is the ability of N Korea to reach us with Nuclear weapons. That will be just a matter of time. When they do, then the time for any action is over.
Our options in my humble view:
We assassinate the fat Kim. He will likely be replaced with someone who probably will not want to suffer the same fate and negotiate, or
We destroy their nuclear facilities now. Retaliation by N Korea would result in many lives lost, but they would know that it would result in total annihilation of North Korea.
Kicking the can down the road which has been the “it won’t happen on my watch” policy is useless.
Proposing these alternatives to Russia and China might also get their attention But we would have to give them dates as Blah Blah Blah means nothing to them
The only real danger to the U.S. of North Korea in it’s current form is that it creates an opportunity for ((tptb)) to pull the plug on the U.S. via a large scale EMP attack, and presto we have a ready made bagman, just like those 7th century cave dwellers who supposedly pulled of the greatest sneak attack in history.
The powers won’t let South Korea be destroyed as it is one of the most high functioning, well ordered, productive societies in the world.
Yep, you just want to kick the can down the road for a century and let our great great grandchildren suffer the consequences. We have to take offensive action against North Korea. It should have been done years ago. Does anyone remember the taking of the USS Pueblo, the downing of one of our Naval Aircraft during the Nixon administration at the cost of 11 american lives, the brazen destruction of an Army Chinook Helicopter while Carter was President just because it strayed a few yards over the N. Korean border, or the 46 S. Korean sailors that were killed when N. Korea torpedoed a destroyer during the Obama administration, followed by an artillery barrage across the border that killed several S. Korean civilians. Not to mention the countless death camps in which N. Korea mass kills it’s own citizens.These bastards are not looking for a deal of any kind that leaves one american alive. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan may very well suffer horrible casualties and irreparable damage if we nuke N. Korea, but will it be any worse that what they will suffer if we keep screwing around until King Kong Un hits us with a super emp over the heartland. Damn for dumb!
Why don’t you just invade North Korea yourself, Rambo? Leave me the fuck out of it. If we don’t put shit within their reach they can’t fuck with it. If they try to come over here, which is of course ridiculous, we nuke them out of existence.
Honda, If we are really talking about nuking a sovereign country just for being a little uppity and emulating the U.S. Maybe we could just send a tiny little hummingbird drone to poison Kim up close and personal or whatever it would take to get rid of the problem. I don’t understand how getting the whole world into a thermonuclear war is worth winning what is essentially a giant pissing contest.
Don’t forget that several months ago Kim’s half brother was murdered in an airport in Malaysia.
Many intel analysts believe that the Chicoms were getting ready to solve the Kim problem and he got wind of it.
Tampa, It would be a nice change to see problems solved with the least amount of effort and expense as opposed to the ‘comprehensive solutions’ that are always pushed as the only answer
A mind is a terrible thing to waste. I likes eggs.
Inform China that any attack originating from North Korea will be responded to as if it had originated in China.
This ‘peace plan’ sounds backwards, as peace is not what any of the sides actually want.
NK wants a state of permanent almost-war to justify their awful standard of living; keeping the people desperate is the only way to keep ’em under control.
USA wants a state of permanent almost-war to justify our gigantic level of spending; the spending is a huge slush fund used to reward political friends and donors.
SK, Japan, Russia, and China are mildly annoyed but not harmed by either USA’s or NK’s antics.
If ya’ want revolution followed by peace saturate the NK airwaves with SK & Chinese television.