AMERICAN PIE

“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”

Bertrand Russell

Don McLean was born in 1945 and grew up in New Rochelle, New York. He was one of the earliest Baby Boomers. He was born at the beginning of America’s last High, as described by Strauss & Howe in their book The Fourth Turning. America’s victory in World War II began a new 80 to 100 year cycle consisting of four turnings of 20 to 25 years. The four cycles are a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling and a Crisis. These cycles have been recurring throughout history due to the generational mood changes as people age. Don McLean grew up during a High. This was an episode of safety and security. He basked in “Dr. Spock permissiveness, suburban conformism, Sputnik-era schooling, Beaver Cleaver friendliness, and Father Knows Best family order.” His idyllic life changed on the morning of February 3, 1959 when he read the headline in the newspaper he was about to deliver.

A long long time ago
I can still remember
How that music used to make me smile
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance
And maybe they'd be happy for a while
But February made me shiver
With every paper I'd deliver
Bad news on the doorstep
I couldn't take one more step
I can't remember if I cried
When I read about his widowed bride
But something touched me deep inside
The day the music died

So bye, bye Miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And them good old boys were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing this'll be the day that I die
This'll be the day that I die

American Pie – Don McLean

To Everything There is a Season

Don McLean was 14 years old in 1959 when he read the bad news on the doorstep. He didn’t realize it at the time, but the American High was coming to a conclusion. The assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 marked the end of the High and the start of the Awakening. A stage of turmoil was about to erupt across America. Strauss & Howe describe the mood transition of the country from a High to an Awakening:

“An Awakening arrives with a dramatic challenge against the High’s assumptions about benevolent reason and congenial institutions. The outer world now feels trivial compared to the inner world. New spiritual agendas and social ideals burst forth, along with utopian experiments seeking to reconcile total fellowship with total autonomy. The prosperity and security of a High are overtly disdained though covertly taken for granted. A society searches for soul over science, meanings over things. Youth-fired attacks break out against the established institutional order. As these attacks take their toll, society has difficulty coalescing around common goals. People stop believing that social progress requires social discipline. Any public effort that requires collective discipline encounters withering controversy. Wars are awkwardly fought and badly remembered afterward.”

As the chart below shows, the progression of generations through the four cycles of life can be documented back to the 1400’s. I’ve always believed that George Santayana’s quote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”, was a profound statement. After examining Strauss & Howe’s generational theory, it may not matter whether you remember the past. You are condemned to repeat it. A generation that is 80 years removed from the last similar cycle is incapable of understanding or learning from that prior cycle. Individuals may study and understand the mood changes that shifted the country on a certain course, but they are helpless in changing the powerful force of a generational life transition. Every person born on this earth has a maximum stay of about 80 to 100 years. They hopefully will make it through the phases of childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. These phases can’t be reversed or rearranged. This is why the four cycles of High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis must occur in that order. When Don McLean was writing American Pie in 1970 at the age of 25, he wasn’t aware that he was capturing the Awakening mood of an entire generation in one song.

The Turnings in Anglo-American History

	The Turnings
	First (High)	Second (Awakening)	Third (Unraveling)	Fourth (Crisis)
Life Phase:
Elderhood	Nomad	Hero	Artist	Prophet
Midlife	Hero	Artist	Prophet	Nomad
Young Adulthood	Artist	Prophet	Nomad	Hero
Childhood	Prophet	Nomad	Hero	Artist
Saeculum:
Late Medieval	—	—	Retreat from France (1435–1459)	War of the Roses (1459–1487)
Tudor	Tudor Renaissance (1487–1517)	Protestant Reformation (1517–1542)	Intolerance & Martyrdom (1542–1569)	Armada Crisis (1569–1594)
New World	Merrie England (1594–1621)	Puritan Awakening (1621–1649)	Reaction & Restoration (1649–1675)	Glorious Revolution (1675–1704)
Revolutionary	Augustan Age of Empire (1704–1727)	Great Awakening (1727–1746)	French & Indian Wars (1746–1773)	American Revolution (1773–1794)
Civil War	Era of Good Feelings (1794–1822)	Transcendental Awakening (1822–1844)	Mexican War & Sectionalism (1844–1860)	Civil War (1860–1865)
Great Power	Reconstruction & Gilded Age (1865–1886)	Third Great Awakening (1886–1908)	World War I & Prohibition (1908–1929)	Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946)
Millennial	American High (1946–1964)	Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984)	Culture Wars (1984–2005?)	Millennial Crisis? (2005?–2026?)

The Day the Music Died

As a young boy, Don McLean was often housebound due to a bad case of childhood asthma. It was during this time that he developed his love of music and learned to play the guitar. The 1950s were an era of happiness and affluence for the burgeoning American middle class. Americans had a feeling of optimism about their prospects for the future, and pride in their nation which had emerged victorious from World War II, setting the world free from the tyranny of Nazi Germany. Popular music mirrored society. Performers such as Buddy Holly, Elvis Presley, and Bill Haley and the Comets churned out feel-good records that matched the mood of the nation. Don’s idyllic childhood came to a shattering conclusion between 1959 and 1963. His music idol, Buddy Holly, died in an airplane crash. His father died in 1961, when Don was 15 years old. John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963.

Don entered young adulthood during the 1960’s as he develop into a musician and made connections in the music industry. He came of age during the Consciousness Revolution. It was marked by urban riots and campus rage, together with Vietnam War demonstrations and a rebellious hippie counterculture. It gave rise to feminist, environmental, and black power movements and to a steep rise in violent crime and family disintegration. The Civil Rights movement, Martin Luther King assassination and the Robert Kennedy assassination were major episodes during this tumultuous period. McLean wrote the song American Pie in 1970, about one-third through the Awakening era. American Pie presents an conceptual story of McLean’s life from the 1950s until the end of the 1960s, and at the same time represents the evolution of popular music and politics over these years, from the happiness of the 1950s to the darkness of the late 1960s.

In 1970, the Vietnam War was at its height. Four unarmed college students had been shot dead at Kent State University by National Guardsmen while protesting the invasion of Cambodia in early 1970.

Alan Howard, author of The Don McLean Story: Killing Us Softly With His Songs, described the period of turmoil and Don McLean’s role in closing this chapter:

“The 1960s was the antithesis of the previous decade. The exuberant simplicity of the 1950s was displaced by a much more volatile and politically charged atmosphere. People were asking questions. The cozy world of white middle class America was disturbed, as civil rights campaigners marched on Washington, D.C., and Martin Luther King Jr delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. The following year saw the 1964 Civil Rights Act become law. On the world stage, America’s leading super-power status was being challenged by the Soviet Union, and its military might was being tested by the Vietnamese. Even in music, America soon found itself overrun by a British invasion. The 1960s was a turbulent time for McLean’s generation.”

“By 1971, America was still deeply troubled. The Vietnam War was out of control. The anti-war movement was gathering momentum and being listened to. Other events of the time, such as the successful launch of Apollo 14, did little to restore national pride. “American Pie,” in the opinion of the song’s producer, Ed Freeman, was the funeral oration for an era: “Without it, many of us would have been unable to grieve, achieve closure, and move on. Don saw that, and wrote the song that set us free. We should all be eternally grateful to him for that.”

The generation defining song marked the end of the fierce phase of the Awakening. After the ferocity crested with Watergate in 1974, passions turned inward toward New Age lifestyles and spiritual rebirth. The mood petered out during Reagan’s optimistic Morning in America reelection campaign in 1983, as onetime hippies reached their yuppie chrysalis. American Pie has been voted the 5th greatest song of the Twentieth Century. It didn’t fit the requirements of a standard pop music hit. Singles were supposed to be 2 to 3 minutes. McLean’s song was War and Peace in comparison. The song ran for an unheard of 8 minutes and 33 seconds. The lyrics contained 877 words. The song is sad, emotional, touching, inspirational, religious, and confusing. It somehow touches you deep inside. Don has never interpreted the lyrics for the public. His view is:

"You will find many interpretations of my lyrics but none of them by me... sorry to leave you all on your own like this but long ago I realized that songwriters should make their statements and move on, maintaining a dignified silence.”

I personally consider American Pie to be the greatest song ever written. I was eight years old in 1971 when the song came out. I shared a 100 square foot room with my sixteen year old brother. I would go to bed at eight o’clock and he would be studying at his desk with the stereo on. My childhood memories are filled with the tunes of Don McLean, CSNY, Simon & Garfunkel, the Beatles, and the Stones. In the late 1980s I spent many a summer weekend night in the Princeton Bar & Grille in Avalon, New Jersey. The saddest part of the evening was at 2:20 a.m. when the DJ would play American Pie, letting everyone know that closing time had arrived. I can still hear the echo of hundreds of drunken 23 year olds singing at the top of their lungs. This is a particularly happy memory, as I met my lovely wife at the Princeton Bar & Grille.

In the past, generational mood changes were reflected in literature. George Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm were reflective of the mood during the last Crisis era. The music of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s captured the mood of the country. Ohio by CSNY, Mrs. Robinson by Simon & Garfunkel, Revolution by the Beatles, and Sympathy for the Devil by the Rolling Stones all reflected the chaotic times, but American Pie is the national anthem of the Baby Boom generation. McLean documents the progression of music and national mood with his haunting lyrics.

Consciousness Revolution

Did you write the book of love
And do you have faith in God above
If the Bible tells you so?
Now do you believe in rock and roll?
Can music save your mortal soul?
And can you teach me how to dance real slow?
Well, I know that you're in love with him
'cause I saw you dancing in the gym
You both kicked off your shoes
Man, I dig those rhythm and blues
I was a lonely teenage broncin' buck
With a pink carnation and a pickup truck
But I knew I was out of luck
The day the music died
I started singing

Bye, bye Miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
And them good old boys were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing this'll be the day that I die
This'll be the day that I die

American Pie – Don McLean

McLean’s lyrics in this verse reflect the music of the 1950s with sock hops, slow dancing with girls and making out in pickup trucks. Then it all ended on the day Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and J.P. Richardson died. In the chorus, American Pie represents rock and roll music. His Chevy represents America. McLean and his friends used to drink at a bar called the Levee in New Rochelle. When it closed, McLean and his friends moved on to Rye, New York drinking away their sadness at the loss of Buddy Holly. The final reference is to Holly’s That’ll Be the Day lyric, that’ll be the day that I die.

Now, for ten years we've been on our own
And moss grows fat on a rolling stone
But that's not how it used to be
When the Jester sang for the king and queen
In a coat he borrowed from James Dean
And a voice that came from you and me
Oh and while the king was looking down
The Jester stole his thorny crown
The courtroom was adjourned
No verdict was returned
And while Lenin read a book on Marx
The quartet practiced in the park
And we sang dirges in the dark
The day the music died
We were singing

American Pie – Don McLean

This verse begins with a reference to Buddy Holly being dead for ten years. Bob Dylan has assumed the role of the king of rock and roll. McLean thinks he has sold out his folk music roots. He replaced Elvis as the king. McLean wasn’t convinced that Dylan deserved this stature. The Beatles hadn’t burst onto the scene in the U.S. The funeral dirges refer to the fact that the music of the 1960’s didn’t measure up to the music of Buddy Holly. The music reflected the disintegration of public trust and reaction to an unsupported war.

Helter skelter in a summer swelter
The birds flew off with a fallout shelter
Eight miles high and falling fast
Landed foul on the grass
The players tried for a forward pass
With the Jester on the sidelines in a cast
Now the half-time air was sweet perfume
While sergeants played a marching tune
We all got up to dance
Oh, but we never got the chance
'Cause the players tried to take the field
The marching band refused to yield
Do you recall what was revealed
The day the music died?
We started singing

American Pie – Don McLean

This verse refers to Charles Manson’s murders inspired by the Beatles song Helter Skelter and the Byrds’ Eight Miles High and their subsequent problems with the law over drug use. While Bob Dylan was laid up after a motorcycle accident, other bands tried to take his place. The Beatles’ Sergeant Pepper’s album changed rock and roll forever. Still, it wasn’t music that you could dance to. McLean didn’t like drugs or the drug references in music. He saw drugs as evil and a major reason for the decline in American society.

Oh, and there we were all in one place
A generation lost in space
With no time left to start again
So come on Jack be nimble, Jack be quick
Jack Flash sat on a candlestick
'Cause fire is the devil's only friend
And as I watched him on the stage
My hands were clenched in fists of rage
No angel born in hell
Could break that Satan's spell
And as the flames climbed high into the night
To light the sacrificial rite
I saw Satan laughing with delight
The day the music died
He was singing

American Pie – Don McLean

The one place was Woodstock. The Baby Boom generation was lost in space. They were alienated from their Hero Generation parents. The hippies were lost in their drug induced psychedelic stupor. There was no time left to go back to the good feelings of the 1950s. He refers to the Rolling Stones’ Jumpin Jack Flash and the murder of a fan during the Stones’ Altamont Speedway Concert by the Hell’s Angels during a performance of Sympathy for the Devil. McLean was a religious man. He was angry at what he believed were satanic influences on the music of Mick Jagger and the Stones. The fan was sacrificed while Jagger performed.

I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news
But she just smiled and turned away
I went down to the sacred store
Where I'd heard the music years before
But the man there said the music wouldn't play
And in the streets the children screamed
The lovers cried, and the poets dreamed
But not a word was spoken
The church bells all were broken
And the three men I admire most
The Father, Son, and Holy Ghost
They caught the last train for the coast
The day the music died
And they were singing

American Pie – Don McLean

The girl who sang the blues was Janis Joplin and she turned away by overdosing on heroine. The sacred store was record stores where they used to let you preview the records in the 1950s before buying them. By the late 1960s they wouldn’t let you listen anymore. The teenagers screamed as the National Guard shot them down at Kent State. The church bells were broken refers to all the dead singers. The Father, Son, and Holy Ghost are Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and J.P. Richardson. They died and went to heaven.

Awakening through Unraveling

In 8 minutes and 33 seconds, Don McLean captured the angst and turmoil of an entire generation moving from a High halfway through an Awakening. McLean was unhappy with the America of the late 1960’s. The Awakening cycle continued until 1984. The youthful enthusiasm and the attacks on the establishment dimmed as the country exited Vietnam and experienced the trauma of Watergate. Emotions cooled as the 1970s progressed. The 1970s and early 1980s are remembered for closure of the gold window by Nixon, Nixon’s resignation, stagflation, oil embargoes, even or odd gas days, the Ford Pinto, recessions, Saturday Night Fever, American hostages, Carter’s ineptitude, Reagan’s optimism, John Hinckley’s assassination attempt, John Lennon’s assassination, 18% interest rates, and 11% unemployment rates. This was not a cheerful time in America. The success of shows like Happy Days reflected America’s longing for the “better” days of the 1950s. The old cultural regime had been thoroughly discredited and institutions had been delegitimized. America’s mood was ready to change again, as 1984 approached. The Boomers entered their self actualization phase concentrating on wealth accumulation and personal fulfillment.

Strauss & Howe described the journey from Awakening to Unraveling:

"The Tomorrowland of the 1950s had evolved through Space Odyssey in the 1960s to Star Wars in the 1970s and Close Encounters of the Third Kind in the 1980s, a spiritual future in which human consciousness triumphs over machines. The visions alternated between perfection and disaster—between utopias celebrating "love" and dystopias annihilating everything. We no longer believed that progress required self-expression more than self-control—even if we still assumed that our nation must be advancing somewhere."

An Unraveling begins much like a High, with a renewed sense of purpose and spirit of optimism. Ronald Reagan’s 1984 Morning in America and Bear in the Woods presidential ad campaign symbolized the new spirit:

“It's morning again in America. Today more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history. With interest rates at about half the record highs of 1980, nearly 2,000 families today will buy new homes, more than at any time in the past four years. This afternoon 6,500 young men and women will be married, and with inflation at less than half of what it was just four years ago, they can look forward with confidence to the future. It's morning again in America, and under the leadership of President Reagan, our country is prouder and stronger and better. Why would we ever want to return to where we were less than four short years ago?”

“There is a bear in the woods. For some people the bear is easy to see. Others don't see it at all. Some people say the bear is tame. Others say it's vicious and dangerous. Since no one can really be sure who is right, isn't it smart to be as strong as the bear? If there is a bear....”

An entrepreneurial force was unleashed with the re-election of Ronald Reagan. The economy soared as Reagan began a massive military buildup and slashed individual and corporate income taxes. The stock market skyrocketed as leveraged buyouts and hostile takeovers dominated the business world. Reagan’s mantra of smaller government was good PR, but it never happened. He cut taxes, but never cut spending. Deficits became acceptable. The National Debt at the beginning of Reagan’s Presidency was $900 billion. Today it stands at $11.9 Trillion. The military buildup proved phenomenally successful as the Soviet Union collapsed under the weight of its war in Afghanistan and attempt to keep up with the U.S. military buildup. A “greed is good” attitude permeated Wall Street and spurred Boomers to seek riches at any cost. Fraud was rampant in business across the lands. Bankers led the charge. The S&L crisis led to the failure of over 1,000 banks. Citibank and Chrysler needed to be bailed out by the government for the 1st time. The last hurrah of good feelings occurred when General Schwarzkopf and his U.S. forces pulverized Sadaam Hussein’s invading army in Kuwait in 1991 losing 379 men versus 35,000 dead Iraqis.

The 1990s deteriorated into a series of culture wars as Pat Robertson’s Moral Majority and Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow Coalition staked out their positions. The dissatisfaction with the status quo was made clear when populist Ross Perot was able to garner 18.9% of the national vote in 1992, leading to the election of Bill Clinton. Pessimism and gridlock marked the 1990’s. With a Republican Congress and a Democratic President, virtually no major legislation was passes between 1994 and 2000. This restricted government spending while tax revenue soared in the late 1990s with the dot.com stock bubble. The result was budget surpluses. Individual self interest dominated personal life, and intractable national problems like Social Security and Medicare didn’t demand immediate action, so they were pushed off to the distant future. The public became disillusioned as the two parties degenerated into name calling, accusations and shrill rhetoric. Incivility in public discourse, a widening chasm between the haves and have nots, all-encompassing distrust of financial and governmental institutions and leaders, and a debased media and public culture led to a national pessimism.

George W. Bush assumed the Presidency in a Supreme Court contested election in 2000. His mandate was smaller government and a no nation building foreign policy. When he took office, the U.S. had a budget surplus, was involved in no wars, and had a National Debt of $5.7 trillion. Today, the country has budget deficits approaching $2 trillion, is still involved in two wars of choice that have cost $900 billion to wage, and the National Debt stands at $11.9 trillion.

Source: Treasury Dept.

In the last nine years the politicians running the United States have managed to increase our National Debt by $6.2 trillion dollars, when it took 211 years to accumulate $5.7 trillion of debt. This may explain why Congress’ approval rating is 21%, an all-time low. The 9/11 terrorist attack marked the beginning of the end of the Unraveling period. It set in motion the over-reactions that would insure a future Crisis of epic proportions. The combination of easy money from the Fed, complete lack of enforcement of existing rules and regulations on the financial industry, reckless and fraudulent lending by the financial industry, waging of two wars of choice in the Middle East, the President urging citizens to borrow, spend and buy houses, multiple tax rebates, the addition of trillions in unfunded Medicare liabilities, trillion dollar bank bailouts, trillion dollar stimulus programs, national healthcare, and complete lack of energy strategy have created a perfect storm that has only just begun. The country grows more pessimistic by the day as intractable problems that have been ignored or shunned for decades now must be addressed. Strauss and Howe describe the mood:

“Cynical alienation has hardened into a brooding pessimism. During a High, obliging individuals serve a purposeful society, and even bad people get harnessed to socially constructive tasks; during an Unraveling, an obliging society serves purposeful individuals, and even good people find it hard to connect with their community. The approaching specter of public disaster ultimately elicits a mix of paralysis and apathy that would have been unthinkable half a saeculum earlier. People can now feel, but collectively can no longer do. Think-tank luminaries have exulted over the history-bending changes of the Information Age, while the public has glazed at expertise, cynically disregarded the good news, and dwelled on the negative.”

The rock band Green Day captures the angst of the Unraveling era. We have been waging a war and losing the fight.

Sing us a song of the century
That's louder than bombs
And eternity
The era of static and contraband
That's leading us to the promised land
Tell us a story that's by candlelight
Waging a war and losing the fight

They're playing the song of the century
Of panic and promise and prosperity
Tell me a story into that goodnight
Sing us a song for me

Green Day – Song of the Century

Millennial Crisis – The Fourth Turning Has Arrived

"A Crisis arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice."

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The current Crisis era began with the housing bubble that peaked in 2005 and the subsequent collapse of the financial system in 2008. The government response to a Crisis caused by thirty years of debt accumulation by consumers has been to spectacularly increase the amount of debt in the financial system. Since consumers won’t spend and banks won’t lend, the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve have decided to spend our grandchildren’s money today to prop up a corrupt evil empire. As White House lackeys and Federal Reserve shysters parade on TV day after day assuring the American public that the crisis is over and crowing that their wisdom prevented a 2nd Great Depression, the truth is they have planted the seeds of a far worse Crisis. The government actions taken so far, along with legislation chugging along in Congress will add $13 trillion to the National Debt by 2019. That would put the National Debt at $25 trillion in 2019. If interest rates are 5% in 2019, the interest on the debt would be $1.25 trillion per year. Realistically, interest rates would likely by 10% or higher in 2019. At that rate, the interest bill would be $2.5 trillion per year. The United States generated $2.1 trillion of total revenue in 2009.

Government debt as a percentage of GDP will reach 99% in 2019 versus 24% in 1974. The Paul Krugmans of the world will point out that Japan has a debt to GDP of 170% today and they are doing OK. What he won’t point out is that they have endured a two decade long recession and started it with the benefit of huge trade surpluses and personal savings rates exceeding 10% by consumers. The U.S. has neither of these attributes. The good news is that we will never reach the $25 billion National Debt. The bad news is that the country will collapse well before 2019. As a gang of marauding starving homeless former Goldman Sachs investment bankers beat Mr. Krugman about the head with his Nobel Prize, he can try to explain to them how another trillion of stimulus would have done the trick. Every decision made by our “leaders” in the last year has been a short-term solution without worrying about future consequences. This has been the politicians’ response for decades. Amazingly, the people that inhabit the halls of Washington and live in the ivory towers of academia actually believe that debt will cure a disaster created by too much debt.

“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.”

Bertrand Russell

During World War II the United States was self-reliant in terms of oil – producing almost 1.8 billion barrels per year. U.S. production rose to an all-time high of approximately 3.4 billion barrels per year in 1972. Thereafter, the drop in U.S. production began, and we are now back below the 1946-level of oil production when the population of the United States was 141 million. Today, the U.S. population exceeds 308 million. Worldwide total liquids production peaked at 86 million barrels in 2008. All of the easily extractable oil and gas in the world has been found. Additional supplies will be found deep below the ocean, in challenging arctic regions, in tar sands, and shale. It will be dramatically more expensive to extract oil from these sources.

The United States is dependent on 600 million barrels of oil from Mexico every year. By 2012 Mexico will become a net importer of oil, so 600 million barrels of oil will need to be supplanted. Iran’s oil production is in decline as capital investment has been ignored for years. Russia’s production has peaked. Saudi Arabia continues to lie about its ability to ramp up production. Their oil fields are 40 years old and in terminal decline. By 2012, the world will only be able to produce 80 million barrels per day. There is no doubt that demand in 2012 will be higher than today’s 85 million barrels per day as China, India and other developing countries continue to grow. The U.S. has 5% of the world’s population, but use 25% of the world’s energy. There is no doubt that $5 a gallon or higher gasoline is in our near term future.

We have had a Department of Energy since 1979. Over this time we have become more dependent on foreign oil. No nuclear power plants or oil refineries have been built in the U.S. in 30 years. Pipelines and energy infrastructure rusts away, while we twiddle our thumbs and agonize over the health of the planet. Doing nothing is a decision. It is a decision which will have dire consequences. Ethanol, solar, and wind will not save us now. It is too late. The United States depends on oil, natural gas, and coal to supply 87% of its energy, with nuclear power providing another 7%. The beloved solar, wind and geothermal sources supply 1.5% of our energy needs. The onset of peak oil will devastate the suburban American way of life.

Source: Perot Charts

The ignored hurricane sized threats that will now morph into a dire Crisis are:

Unsustainable budget deficits leading to a $25 trillion National Debt
$100 trillion of unfunded future Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid liabilities
Peak oil leading to $200 a barrel oil

Marc Faber, famed investor, acknowledges the inevitability of collapse due to the bastardization of our capitalistic system:

"It's a total and complete disaster and the crisis we had is just the appetizer to the big total breakdown of financial markets and of governments in five or 10 years time when the whole system goes bust. The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society. Unless the system is cleaned out of losses, the way communism collapsed, capitalism will collapse. The best way to deal with any economic problem is to let the market work it through."

Apocalypse or Glory

Those who believe our Crisis has passed need to study the past. It is unlikely that this Crisis comes to a climactic conclusion before 2025. As with the song American Pie, music is currently reflecting the Crisis mood that has engulfed the nation. Match Box Twenty’s How Far We’ve Come and Green Day’s Know Your Enemy reveal a foreboding about the future. A song that has risen up the charts recently captures the essence of the Crisis. The song is Uprising by the group Muse.

The paranoia is in bloom, the PR
The transmissions will resume
They'll try to push drugs
Keep us all dumbed down and hope that
We will never see the truth around
(So come on!)

Another promise, another scene, another
A package not to keep us trapped in greed
With all the green belts wrapped around our minds
And endless red tape to keep the truth confined
(So come on!)

They will not force us
They will stop degrading us
They will not control us
We will be victorious

Interchanging mind control
Come let the revolution take its toll if you could
Flick the switch and open your third eye, you'd see that
We should never be afraid to die
(So come on!)

Rise up and take the power back, it's time that
The fat cats had a heart attack, you know that
Their time is coming to an end
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend

Muse - Uprising

The song captures the fundamental nature of what has occurred in this country. The ruling class, through the public education system; by allowing cheap drugs in the poor communities; by public relations misinformation; and the entertainment media, have been able to withhold the truth from the ignorant masses. The society is consumed by personal wealth and attaining that wealth. Those who attain wealth through any means are admired. “Greed is good” still thrives today. Goldman Sachs is the poster child of greed gone wild. The non-wealthy are left to deal with the endless red tape of getting anything done, from doctor visits, to cell phone billing plans, to 1040 tax returns, and obtaining handouts from the government. The song is a call to revolution. We are tired of being degraded and trivialized by the politicians and fat cat bankers that run this country. There is a growing army of angry citizens who know they are being manipulated and controlled. The time is approaching when violence will be required to take the power back from the fat cats. When people lose everything they have worked their whole lives for, there is nothing left to lose. Once the financial system implodes, government will be helpless to print more worthless currency. The uprising that will occur during this Crisis will be bloody, as those in power will not relinquish control without a fight. The flag of the righteous and unified will ascend. Thinking Americans are what the ruling elite fear most.

“Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. Thought looks into the pit of hell and is not afraid. Thought is great and swift and free, the light of the world, and the chief glory of man.”

Bertrand Russell

This is the fourth Crisis period in American history. The prior three were the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression/World War II. We’ve experienced two revolutions and one world war that killed 65 million people. There is no way to avoid what awaits us. Like the seasons, we must go through Winter before we can experience Spring again. The only question is what events will transpire to generate the public fury that always occurs during the Crisis era. Will it be a foreign conflict over oil that transforms into a World War? Will it be a nuclear missile exchange in the Middle East? Will it be a nuclear device detonated within the U.S. borders? Or, will it be a domestic civil war due to a total collapse of our economic system? The conflict is likely to be triggered by natural resources or lack thereof.

“When society approaches the climax of a Crisis, it reaches a point of maximum civic power. Where the new values regime had once justified individual fury, it now justifies public fury. Wars become more likely and are fought with efficiency and finality. The risk of revolution is high – as is the risk of civil war, since the community that commands the greatest loyalty does not necessarily coincide with political (or geographic) boundaries.”

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

We are years from a final resolution. The cast of characters who will decide our fate is unknown today. Barack Obama will not be a major player in the climax of this Crisis. He will go down in history as the James Buchanan or Herbert Hoover figure that only insured that the Crisis would grow bigger and more painful through his actions. The country is likely to turn to an aging Boomer to lead the country through the violent phase of this Crisis. The initial phase of this Crisis has passed, much like the stock market crash in 1929 and the appearance of a recovery in 1930. The “solutions” that have been implemented thus far will drive our deficits skyward, drive the dollar downward, and ultimately push the economy into a depression. The confluence of a deepening depression with the onset of peak oil shortages in supplies and soaring prices between 2010 and 2014 will plunge the country into chaos. As the world loses confidence in the leadership of our country, they will exit our debt and our dollar. The collapse of the U.S. currency could result in a number of calamitous scenarios.

When governments are confronted with dreadful domestic problems and faced with lack of oil supply, a foreign enemy will materialize who just happens to have vast amounts of oil. Since the supply of oil will be just as restricted for China and other Far East countries, there is likely to be armed conflict. Once war begins, no one can predict which direction it will go. If it spirals out of control, nuclear annihilation is a possibility. The collapse of the U.S. dollar would result in millions of Americans being financially wiped out. Millions of angry Americans with no gasoline and no money might get unruly. The possibility of civil war will be high. Will the American military fire on American citizens? The ruling elite will order the military to attack the riff-raff, but they risk the military turning their guns on them. The greatest risk in this scenario is that Americans turn to a strong leader who assumes dictatorial power in the guise of safety and security.

“The Crisis climax is human history’s equivalent to nature’s raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl of ferocious energy. Anything not lashed down goes flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened. Normally occurring late in the Fourth Turning, the climax gathers energy from an accumulation of unmet needs, unpaid bills, and unresolved problems. It then spends that energy on an upheaval whose direction and dimension were beyond comprehension during the prior Unraveling era. The climax shakes a society to its roots, transforms its institutions, redirects its purposes, and marks its people (and its generations) for life. The climax can end in triumph, or tragedy, or some combination of both. Whatever the event and whatever the outcome, a society passes through a great gate of history, fundamentally altering the course of civilization. Soon thereafter, this great gate is sealed by the Crisis resolution, when victors are rewarded and enemies punished; when empires or nations are forged or destroyed; when treaties are signed and boundaries redrawn; and when peace is accepted, troops repatriated, and life begun anew. One large chapter of history ends, and another starts. In a very real sense, one society dies – and another is born.”

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Our current Crisis could end in apocalypse or glory, triumph or tragedy. America has exited every prior Crisis stronger and infused with a new vitality. In each case a strong leader (George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt) guided the country successfully through the Crisis. There are no guarantees that this Crisis will lead to a stronger more vital America. Has the corruption of public officials and their utter contempt for the U.S. Constitution gone so far that we can no longer get back to our founding principles? This is a question that will be answered over the next fifteen years. The American dream can be restored or destroyed forever.

BYE BYE MISS AMERICAN PIE

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.”

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

My sole purpose one and a half years ago when I started writing about what I saw happening in this country was to convince enough people that the fiscal and foreign policies of our politician leaders would lead to disaster, so that we could change our path and I could leave my three sons a future brighter than my own. I have come to the conclusion that less than 1% of Americans or 3 million people really care about the path of destruction we are on. Approximately 1% of the population owns 90% of the wealth in the country. The actual number of people in control of the country is quite small. There are maybe a couple thousand people who control the reins of power (100 people in the White House, 535 Congressmen, 50 bankers, 20 people in the Federal Reserve, 9 Supreme Court justices, 100 people in power at governmental agencies, 50 media titans, 100 corporate CEOs, and maybe 200 rich influential people such as Gates, Soros and Buffett).

The majority of Americans are oblivious to the Crisis that has already begun. They are distracted by their latest text message, shopping at the mall, worried about the next credit card bill, engrossed by the adventures of balloon boy, and trusting that their elected officials know what is best for them. What will blind side them is the depth and ferocity of the next stage in the Crisis. They will need to choose sides when the time comes. I will choose the side of truth, freedom, liberty, and adherence to the U.S. Constitution as it was written. This old man will join his three sons at the barricades when the time comes. The fools and fanatics who run this country are certain. I am not certain of the final outcome, but I know which side I’ll choose. Do you?

Please join me at www.TheBurningPlatform.com to seek the truth.

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Posted 110 days ago

125 Comments

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MikeinAZ

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Great article Jim, keep up the good fight. I and many others will be there beside you. This will be posted on my Facebook (another distraction) page tonight. Maybe I can help wake up a few more... BTW - we're not old quite yet.

Written 110 days ago 4 replies

Anonymous

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Kennedy was offed because he began to issue U.S.Treasury Notes.Why pay interest to a foreign owned FEDERAL RESERVE when you can print them yourself.He had a good point. LBJ reversed that executive order before Kennedy's body was cold. "NEWS FLASH" Barricades are up but lightly manned. All Patriots wishing to help defend the Republic are instucted to purchase as many dollars of silver as possible with FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES!!! Of course you know that a Constitutional dollar is 741 grains of silver based on the Spanish peices of eight circulating at the time of the writing of the Constitution.Unless you only pick and choose which lines of the Constitution that you wish to adhere to.The Constitution has never been amended,so it a curious that you(jim) fail to mention this achilles heel of the FOREIGN OWNED FEDERAL RESERVE BANK.(not federal,no reserves)At this critical juncture of the republics demise it is possible to expose their corruption to the common citizen by having all of us aquiring the maximum amount of monetay metals as defined by the Constitution of The United States of America.Do not confuse this entity with UNITED STATES INCORPORATED.(As listed by dun&bradstreet)Failing in this patriotic act may lead you to the literal barricade that I believe you are referring to which we will be incinerated by foreign mercenaries or the Corporations fleet of Predators. Funded by our own support of FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES.Did I forget to mention that the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK IS OWNED MOSTLY BY FOREIGNERS who will milk every last drop of value from you before they exterminate you.

Written 110 days ago

Anonymous

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this is totally untrue.

Written 109 days ago

Anonymous

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can you show that any one of these facts is untrue?speak up

Written 109 days ago

SSS

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Anon One: "Kennedy was offed because he began to issue U.S. Treasury Notes." Glad you began with that line, which discredits everything that follows.

Written 108 days ago

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Anonymous

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I'm going to save this for 5 years. I suspect there's a lot of truth in this that will play out.

Written 110 days ago 1 reply

Anonymous

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I agree wholeheardly: A GREAT writing, Jim. You've painted a very realistic picture of what people in America are currently faced with, and what awaits them in the future. Having said such ... I think a "backup plan" for our bloated defict is on the drawing board.

This "back up plan" in simplicity: Rather than the U.S. file for bankruptcy, implement a "New and better way" of dealing with our financial challenges. Go DIGITAL! DIGITAL MONEY ONLY. How could such a system work, one might ask? Exactly how the stock market CURRENTLY works. Having a stock certificate in your possession has become a thing of the past. Having "digital certificates" is here to stay. "Numbers on paper and on the computer screen are totally sufficient. Trust us!"

And once our currency has been completely DIGITIZED, the powers to be can Naked Short it any time they want, just like the Shock Market power brokers are currently doing when it suits their purpose/s ... yet NEVER have to admit publicly they are Naked Shorting it, because afterall ... "Naked Shorting isn't HAPPENING!" (Yeah - RIGHT! Notice how the powers to be demanded that shorting and naked shorting of financial institutions (big banks) be curtailed last fall 2008 during the market selldown, but how it was allowed AGAIN once they had the crisis seemingly under control).

Here's something no one wants you to KNOW, let alone BELIEVE. The ability to create digitized currency means you create phantom currency shares that cannot be held accountable for, (as long as YOU create them and have the power to ONLY allow a trusted few to know they exist), and they are a weapon more potent that NUCLEAR warheads, in that it can CONTROL the nations who own the nuclear warheads ... especially if you are the country with the MOST nuclear warheads. Saying it another way, you can essentially bankrupt any nation you want by placing enough "short sells with digitized shares that don't really exist (until YOU create them out of THIN AIR!) ... which is the very same thing you can do with any publicly traded company if you have enough clout.

Digitized money is the U.S. backup plan, but let's keep it hush-hush quiet, okay? It will be sold as bringing the "PEACE and SAFETY" (and security) that the masses will be screaming for as the years unfold. Just WATCH and SEE. If you are at all skeptical, ask the Holy Spirit about it. He happens to KNOW ALL.

Written 109 days ago

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JennJohnson

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Jim – another great article. Unfortunately the majority of people will continue to be oblivious to what is going on around them. It won’t be until peak pain that people wake up from their slumber. By, then, like you said, it will be too late. But, being the eternal optimist that I am, I can always hope that we can somehow make a difference.

This is a random thought that will irritate several of you who dislike Gen-Xers:

I believe that you are a product of your environment to the extent that your world views and guiding principles tend to be shaped by the events that occur during your lifetime. Several of us have used quotes from Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm to highlight the control exercised by the government on our daily lives. Another good book which makes the same point, but in a very different manner, is Brave New World, by Aldous Huxley. Both men wrote of the evils of governmental control on our lives. Both men were today’s Gen-Xers. Huxley was born in 1894 and Orwell in 1903. Society writes of my generation (the Gen-Xers) as a bunch of lazy, disengaged, spoiled losers, when in reality most of us are motivated, hard-working and altruistic individuals. While I will concede that some of our altruism is misguided, we, as a whole, are less selfish than society makes us out to be.

My point is that when Orwell and Huxley wrote their novels, both men were looked at as somewhat delusional. Their words ring true today and are rather prophetic. They were a product of their generation. Maybe we should start listening to some of the Gen-Xers in today’s world. We are not all lazy, disengaged, spoiled losers who only think of ourselves.

Written 110 days ago 3 replies

JimQ

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I agree. There are many individuals within a generation that will act contrary to the generation as a whole. I think people sometimes misunderstand that when I talk about a generation, I'm not talking about every person within that generation.

We need people like Orwell and Huxley to point out the hypocrisy and evil in society.

Written 110 days ago

Skyprince

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Hey Jen--yeah, generalizations are a bitch. They make life simpler, but the reality is that it is complex. Thanks for pointing out what should be obvious.

Written 110 days ago

Micahsan

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I don,t live in the USA,however I was born there. I seen the changes that this artice points out. It is not a USA problem alone, but a world wide one. I happen to love our children around the world. Generation XYZ whatever, I have not lost my faith in them, Nor in the the older folks around and about old panet earth. Freedom has nether been free. It has cost dearly the lifes of many. This artice is so on target, the ones who has perpetrated this world wide corruption in the goverments will not go easy. It will take young and old alike to put an end to this mess. there is no place to run to. You are going to have make a decision to fight against this system of evil, and chop off some heads. Going to stand by our children that believes there is right and wrongs. May the Almight GOD bless you.

Written 107 days ago

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Raincoastghost

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Jim - I too will fight the good fight as long as I'm able. I was born in 1946 (first wave baby boomer) and I can totally identify with your article. I also believe wholeheartedly in common sense, and this makes common sense to me throughout.

I would suggest that the Gen-Xers are VERY aware of what is going on and that many of them are engaged in attempting to raise awareness amongst their peers. I speak with first hand knowledge of this since I'm the father of two Gen-Xers. You may consider this piece of music:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtmemsBdd_c

This is the music listened to by Gen-Xers and the younger generation coming after them. This song and others like it will be the anthems of their generation as "Miss American Pie" was for our generation. Indeed, these are historic times.

Written 110 days ago

Swashbuckler

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American Pie has always been a favorite of mine. Never knew the story behind the lyrics. Until now. Riveting. Thanks.

Written 110 days ago

Anonymous

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I bought a copy of The Fourth Turning after reading your previous article "Boomers-Winter Is Coming". I've since encouraged several friends to seek out this book. Thanks for another great article.

Written 110 days ago

mjs034

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When American Pie first came out on the radio, they only played part of it because it was so long. Protests by radio listeners changed that in a hurry.

The greatest rock and roll song of all time, hands down.

Written 110 days ago

Ed Croker

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Jim, you are not alone. I know where I stand. Right beside you and all the other people who know what we are losing every day. The end of big government comes, one way or another.

Written 110 days ago

Kitty

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Another super article. I also posted it on Facebook, but, sadly, the only person to read it so far has been a Canadian! I will also be at the barricades!

Written 110 days ago

Loomis

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Outstanding article. You are a gifted writer Jim, please continue to employ the talent you've been given so others may benefit. Time will tell where we end up. I too have children and I too agree with your stated position. Hold tight as the storm approaches and keep this site on track. Thank you all for your contributions.

Written 110 days ago

Ron Enderland

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Mr. Quinn, I have quoted extensively from your article and linked back to this page from my own website, I Remember JFK (a Baby Boomer's Pleasant Reminiscing Spot) (http:www.irememberjfk.com). I hope this is acceptable to you. If not, let me know. In any case, your article is amazing and dead-on. Thanks for writing it.

Ron E.

Written 110 days ago 2 replies

vinceF

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Jim, it is a joy reading any of your articles that deal with Demographics which, if I placed on a flow chart of mankind, would be directly under the top box of Cause and Effect.

...and also thanks for the trip down memory lane. I was a little too young for the 50s and 60s, but grew up in the 70s, and despite all that went wrong with that decade, I would never give up the experience.

Yes, Saturday Night Fever was the apex movie for my age group and represented the last innocent and fun time before entering the era of "Greed Is Good" a few years later. We went from growing our hair down to slicking it back as we worked 7 days a week, went to the gym in droves and still found time to partake in mind altering stress relief.

We were given the name Generation Jones because we always had a longing for something. My guess is that the longing was in fact the goal of early retirement which explains all the shortcuts we wanted to take to get there.

As you say: "The majority of Americans are oblivious to the Crisis that has already begun." I am not one of those, and this "problem" has consumed much of my thoughts for 5 years now since retirement. Sometimes idle minds have time to really see things as they are.

It's articles like this one here today that you have written that give me some sense of confidence that we will overcome this someday. Recognizing the problem is part of the solution.

Written 110 days ago

Flyguy

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Burning Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi for food and fuel...hmmm....sounds like a real nightmare scenario.

Written 110 days ago 2 replies

Anonymous

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Excellent analysis. The "marching band" was probably the Chicago police at Grant Field during the '68 Democratic Convention. The video on television at that time caused a lot of very "traditional" members of the Greatest Generation to realize something seriously wrong was happening. The "girl who sang the blues" was Janis Joplin, and she "turned away" to die of a drug overdose. The "sacred store" was also though by some to be the Fillmore East, and "the man" to be Phil Gramm, saying the music of the Awakening wouldn't sell anymore.

After reading James Howard Kunstler's column on Monday, and yours today, I'm beginning to realize how close we are to the Crisis.

Written 110 days ago

Lizbeth

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Hi Jim. Great article. I read every word and I must say I agree, but I'm also apprehensive that this turning may be less of a revolution than is needed for real change.

I know that no one knows what form the changes to come will take but I think a case can be made for no or little change at the top.

The Fed chairman, the treasury, and TPTB can just keep creating money as the banksters game the system, pay themselves and their enablers, and then dump their risk and losses on the Fed, on Fannie and Freddie, etc. I don't see why the scenario of the past year can't repeat. The banks crashed last October for all intents and purposes, yet here they are, still standing and 'earning' more money than ever before.

In the meantime the average 'consumer' is consuming less because of unemployment, wage cuts, etc. But, states and pension funds are already being bailed out and that will no doubt continue. So government employees and those in academia will be ok. In fact they may soon comprise the bulk of the middle class, along with health care workers and those in industries that are still thriving, such as tech.

But the portion of the population in dying industries, or off-shored industries, or service industries selling to those with reduced incomes, will have less. But they will only be a portion of the population. Not everyone will be bad off, just as most people are still muddling through right now. So, just as those who have been marginal for years have been ignored or told to pull themselves by their own boot-straps, those who fall behind in this new economic climate will join the already-marginalized and become invisible.

Baby boomers who didn't save enough will have SS checks and medical care, and will live on what they get. Not all boomers are wealthy so for a lot of them it won't be much of a change.

The millenial generation will also learn to live with less and be told that when they get older they'll earn more, but for now they have to start out on the bottom rung. That's what the boomers were told when we were young - don't complain about your old cars and trashy houses when your kids are young. You'll get a nicer house later.

Seems to me the kids of the baby boomers, the 30-somethings driving New SUVs and buying McMansions and furnishing them just so from the Pottery Barn catalog and pushing their $500 strollers around will turn out to have been the most indulged and priveleged generation ever. I'm thinking they are the peak of prosperity, for now at least.

I guess my point is that I can see a scenario whereby those for whom the recession doesn't end will remain powerless and poor, but won't comprise a large enough critical mass, population-wise, to force real change.

Written 110 days ago 2 replies

Jeff

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So gen-x is the most priveleged??? Gimme a fraggin break. How many boomers occupy places of power as we speak and as things are imploding? I rest my case, what a bunch of drivel. When things change, you guys rewrite the rules to your benefit, and to be honest, the only thing I have learned from my so called elders is that truth does not matter and greed and corruption rule the day. I have so many friends in my age group barely making it right now. Sooo, let's think of a baby boomer that comes to mind, Hank Paulson, it is swine like that, that I hope gets his just deserves. And if anyone has led a life of priveledge, it has been you guys. At least you guys had the security of knowing that you could go out and protest something like vietnam or something else, and then know that you would have some kind of job waiting instead of some kind of lousy mcjob. So at 37, I am a bitter beaver.

My generation is going to rub your reckless baby boomers out of control. Your generation of unmoralistic greedy leaders trashed this place for me, my kids and their kids. Your leaders, your company men, your bonuses, ceo pay, your cheerleading, it all sucks and it's coming down.

So Lizbeth, in 10 years when your generation is done and spent from ruining my country, I'm going to boot you out the door.

Written 109 days ago

DMS-7up

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The top end thinker already have their plans for a critical mass movement. There will be a change Obama said, and there are going to be changes. Some may suprise even Mr. Obama & his Staff.

Written 106 days ago

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Paul

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Jim,

Great junxtaposition of popular culture, recent events, predictions, and an important book. Since my reading of the Fourth Turning about half a year ago, I was hoping to see some intelligent applications of the book's theses to US economic events. Bravo. You've put your unique "music" to Stauss' and Howe's "lyrics."

Thanks for the translation of McLean's lyrics. Even as an early Boomer, I could only connect on about 50% of his content before your article.

Written 110 days ago

Anonymous

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FDR guided us through? FDR laid the foundations of failure.

Written 110 days ago 4 replies

Anonymous

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Although I agree with you, I'm sure if you talk to any surviving members of the Hero class from the 1930's and 1940's (GI Generation) they may think differently. Unfortunately there are very few left, and the ones that are still alive are not listened to by their boomer children. This is one of the main reasons why we live through these generational cycles. People die off and no one is alive to remember how it was in the previous cycle.

Written 110 days ago

Anonymous

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fdr was a traitor.He confiscated Constitutional money(gold coin)from the citizens of the States of America.The Greatest generation for the most part did not comprehend the implications of this act at the time.That $20 gold coin of 22 karat purity is now worth 1000 FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES.They did retain the original 741 grain dollar of silver,which helped to retain purchasing power for the people until the traitor LBJ finally signed its obituary.The zinc you carry in your pocket today is the result,but even that will retain value when the paper notes fail.These coins where melted but never purified,and are now attempting to be used as settlement for futures contracts which require 24 karat good delivery bars.The naked short trades may be at an end.

Written 110 days ago

Irv Thomas

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Of course, that's the only way you can think of FDR after 30 years of post-Reagan brainwashing. Had his programs not been pushed through the conservative dissent at the time, we'd have no Social Security or unemployment insurance today . . . and the mess we'd be in now is inconceivable. Count your blessings, not the loss of your precious gold.

Written 109 days ago

Anonymous

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We would not be in this mess with Constitutional money.The tens of trillions pillfered from the social security trust fund would have stayed with the person who earned them.Guess there really is no trust in the trust fund after all.Just social robbery.Unemployment insurance just limits the wages of workers and keeps employers from hiring more workers.At least half of those collecting now are working under the table for cash.Maybe you need a social worker to come and wipe your ass for you.Whats the point of having a Constitution if you behave like a collectivist,communist traitor.You should donate your 401 and pension to your local welfare recipient.The one with the premium cable package and the flat screen.Why should anyone be paid to sit at home and watch jerry springer.They should be out cutting grass and forcing the illegal aliens out of work.You are the one who is brainwashed. When obama mandates you take 10 crackheads in to live with you,your mushbrain may start to solidafy.Politicians love your type because you have no concept of why the Constitution only gave congress the power to COIN money.Not print or keystroke it into existense.Have you ever noticed what a dollar bought you when you were a kid and what it will get you know?Why is that Irv?Do you buy a gallon of milk that is all water with one drop of milk added.I did not think so.Why do you accept money with one drop of purchasing power left?It OK,you are just the result of our fine educational system.Stupid is as stupid does.

Written 108 days ago

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Matslinger

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I'm possessed by my refusal to accept the problem , and fight to convince somebody... anybody...

that we outnumber these bastards 10,000,000 to 1... and CAN stop whats happening!

Then I'm confronted with the ugly fact that our side has more bastards then theirs does!

The number of brain dead Americans is stagering!!! I make it my goal to awaken at least

one person each day, but the level of ignorance and stupidity I encounter, make it more

feasable to quench an atomic blast with a squirt gun. The biggest problem is that we are

an octapus with all our arms chopped off, by the refusal of media recognition.

The few who prentend to support the truth: Lou Dobbs, Hannity, Glenn Beck, etc.,

are very possibly using hope as a weapon to deter public involvment.

I also fear that the inevitable "SHOCK TEST" thats been dreamed up by the think tanks

will turn all of the brain dead sheeple into adversaries against each other, when their

cards dont work, when their pensions, IRA's, 401K's, and savings, are vaporized or

turned into "forced 10 year bonds". I recentley cleaned out my savings and paid

off my house... hopefully the right decision, when the FDIC is exposed for what it really

is. The likelyhood of individual debt , becoming family debt , has to be examined.

Homelessness is being criminalized, low credit scores automatically exclude you from

consideration for the few jobs out there.... this is horrid, just horrid!

The America we knew is gone forever, but a new America can be be won if we

wake up and tell these Satan worshipers to go to hell where they belong !

1st -turn off the TV

2nd- -talk with your neighbors, people on the street, anyone who will listen.

3rd- if you have money, spend it on spreading the message...you might as

well, it's going to be worthless soon anyway.

4rth- educate yourself ! you cant wake the comstose without being well versed

This isn't over yet . Mat Mpls.

Written 110 days ago 2 replies

Greg Fielding

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Wow Jim...this is one of your best articles yet.

Written 110 days ago

Anonymous

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I already knew which side of the line I would stand on when I returned to the "world" in '75 after serving several years in uniform. Even then, I would tell people "next time the shooting starts, I'll be on the other side of the line." I will be waiting there for you and your sons when the time comes. Thanks for the article.

Written 110 days ago 1 reply

MikeD

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Jim,

Great article.

I am afraid the clock is ticking much faster than we think. If we are going to do something about our current situation we better get started. The fact is that many people write great articles, many talk on radio and TV about what is going on and it seems from the comments that many of us think alike. The problem is we all talk and write about it but we do not take any action. Many very good God fearing Germans did the same thing while the Nazi's began to flex their muscles and dismantle German laws. Hitler rose to power legally, once in power he used false terrorist attacks to consolidate power in the guise of protecting the public ( sound familar). The public slowly gave up their rights and freedoms willingly. We are now in a similar situation. The government does not reflect the will of the people. It is not just Obama or democrats or republicans or right or left or liberal or conservative. The individuals and party labels are just a smoke screen to keep us all divided and distracted as our nation is being dismantled right before our eyes. It has been going on incrementally for decades. Our economy has been gutted. We have no real industry left to lead us to recovery. Everything is just an illusion, as the Fed prints fake money to buy its own debt and pour money we now owe( the taxpayer) into banks that turn around and manipulate the stock and commodity markets for profit and give the average person a false sense of hope. It is all fraud and it will end soon as the rest of the world is growing tired of the game. When the music stops it will be worst than any American can ever imagine. The music is about to end very soon. If we don't take the risk of acting now we will no longer have the opportunity.

Written 110 days ago 1 reply

cbxer55

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Every once in a while, an article comes rip-roaring along, that just makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

Congratulations on this being one of them. Of course, being born in 61, and loving that song from the first time I heard it in 71, is a good part of that feeling. And being without a job, due to no fault of my own, for the last 11 months, adds to it. And the surrealness that Uncle Sam, via Tinker AFB, supposedly an Equal Opportunity Employer, is discriminating against me for having bad hearing and preventing me from getting a job there I thought was all locked up, adds fuel to the fire. So I am unable to get a job working on aircraft due to a hearing loss that resulted from working on aircraft for 22 years. Who'd thunk it?

Anyhow I hope you don't mind I send this article out via e-mail to all my contacts. A fair amount of them will probably join here in the not-too-distant-future. :>)

I'm also going to keep this on my favorite list for a long time to come. Or at least as long as I still have internet service. Since I am coming to the end of my unemployment bennies, with no job in site, that may not be too much longer. :>(

Written 110 days ago 3 replies

Anonymous

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Just brilliant. Thank you.

Written 110 days ago

Novista

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Jim, this is more than a great article, it's a Magnum Opus.

It's a long way from 1936 to now, for me. The midst of the Great Depression, World War Two, Korea, the Cold War, doomsday clock, Vietnam ... one hassle after another, minor crises leading to major Crisis. Happy events interspersed, marriage, children, jobs good and bad. Working in Saudi Arabia was an epiphany, other places are not like the United States, and yet, people are people everywhere.

Influences in my thinking -- not the least, Robert Heinlein from about age 14. And the dystopian SF of the 50s, so I had an early grounding in Crisis. Obsessive-compulsive reading, both non-fiction and fictio, classics and essayists. Two books of essays by Mark Twain (many not published in his lifetime) and I still have them, H.L. Mencken, and more authors than I could name in a comment.

It's like I've been preparing for Crisis all my life.

All along the way, new people have added to my understanding, and you're on the A-list.

Written 110 days ago

Dianeb

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This is a wonderful article. Thank you for taking me back through my history.

Written 110 days ago

Skyprince

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Jim....your article captures and mirrors the deep down feelings of so many. It is a stunningly provocative piece of work and by all rights should go "viral" on the internet. I'll do my part to help in this endeavor. And I hope everyone does their part to spread this compelling and moving piece. Bravo!

Written 110 days ago

Dr.GM

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Jim,

I don't know if your are a true voice of warning crying in the wilderness or the most devious anarchist I've ever read. I strongly suspect the former. I have open expressed concern (starting in February of this year) to loved ones that I am worried that in the US, the shooting will start soon. I am still of that opinion. I am also frustrated, angry, appalled, and ready to just give up. Corruption, power and greed have taken control and will not yield to anyone's good intentions or public requests. It is over unless things are so bad that the public awakens from their apathetic sleep and takes back their country. Unfortunately, I can't see an ignorant, fat, lazy, over-medicated, over-entitled, populace with a Britney Spears 30 second sound bite attention span, rising to the task. Furthermore, people are not emotionally invested in America anymore and nor is society homogeneous in it's culture. There are many inside of America who are willing cheering on it's destruction. The enemy at the gate is no longer the issue as the enemy is through the gate and firmly entrenched in all facets of society. You ask which side will I choose? I am on the same side as those express by your principles of truth, liberty, freedom and adherence to the US Constitution. But how will I identify that side among the diffusion and confusion of available information? And how will I fight those in power with a gifted tounge who sway the sheeple but whose actions are clearly contrary to those principles?

Thank you for your usual thought provoking article.

Written 110 days ago 2 replies

Anonymous

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Nice article Jim. You have put in such a great deal of work here.

The unfortunate reality is that it now seems that politicians in Western countries are determined to make far reaching major economic decisions based primarily (if not totally in many instances) upon political considerations - such as their desire to stay in power and the need to placate their "monetary contributers" - rather than on sound economic principles. This would certainly appear to be the case in the US - but the US is by no means alone on that score.

The majority of Americans are oblivious to the crisis not only because they are pre-occupied with earning a living and dealing with their day to day issues. They are mostly too lazy to try and understand basic economics and also too often fail to analyse and criticise the actions and proposals of those in power.

Then that majority are constantly told by Government, their agencies and the "spinners" in the private sector that the worst is over, that Government has done a great job in averting a more serious down turn, that the actions by Government were correct, that people no longer need worry and, above all, to keep borrowing and spending. (I don't think most of the unemployed, and those reduced to part time work, see it that way but they are probably not part of that majority). "You see people .......... everything is now ok/improving because the stock market is going up". How many times have you heard that one. ( What are they going to say when the now overbought conditions in equity markets seriously correct downwards - as inevitably they are going to do in the US and elsewhere? The powers that be are no doubt getting the spin ready right now). These are the same lot who never saw the crisis coming and who continued to claim, before the balloon inevitably burst, that all was just dandy.

But then the rhetoric in the US is also repeated in similar terms in other economies.

You really need to worry when bad news is treated as good news because it was not as bad as the "market" or the "analysts" expected it to be. Who gave "them" the top billing on wisdom anyhow.

You also need to worry when news from foreign countries is treated as positive for US growth when it is totally irrelevant. A recent example was the October 2009 decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase their official interest rates by a mere 0.25 of one percent to 3.25%, with promises or more adjustments to come. This was presented as great news for the US economy, an indication that the world economy was indeed on the mend and blah... blah.... blah.... What a joke. The reality is quite different. The RBA markedly over-reacted in its interest rates cuts in 08/09 (from 7.25% in 2008 by the way) as the Australian economy was never ever affected to anything like the extent seen in Nth America and Europe by the GF crisis. The RBA's last rate decrease was as recent as Apr 09 and it's now increasing rates again towards more normal levels. Furthermore, the considerable interest rate spread between US and Aust rates, with promises of an increasing differential, and a reasonably robust Australian economy, will contribute to sucking even more dollars out of the US economy and into the Australian investments. Of course there is already a steady flight of capital out of the US and into a range of stronger more sustainable economies.

Written 110 days ago

ilene

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Hi Jim, I thought this was a great article and posted it at Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com). Interesting analysis of American Pie, I had never thought of those connections. Do you know what the top 4 songs of the century were? Thanks, Ilene (http://philsbackupsite.wordpress.com/).

Written 110 days ago 2 replies

Rank	Title	Artist
1	"Over the Rainbow"	Judy Garland
2	"White Christmas"	Bing Crosby
3	"This Land Is Your Land"	Woody Guthrie
4	"Respect"	Aretha Franklin
5	"American Pie"	Don McLean

Ed-the-Miner

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Jim:

Some of the commenters said "brilliant" and "Magnum Opus" and I agree. The first part on Mclean and American Pie really grabbed me on a visceral level and your economic analysis is right on (as we used to say in the 70s). May I suggest, however, you review your history comments. I have come to believe that Lincoln probably did not guided us through the crisis of the 1860s but cast us into an immediate conflict that cost the country more casualties (about 800,000) and fatalities (about 600,000) than almost all our other wars combined while setting the country up for more than 100 years of continuing racial difficulties. And FDR, as far as I can tell kept the country in a depression that lasted until after his death. George W. Bush has more played the roll of Hoover while Obama is following in FDR's footsteps. We may well be in for a repeat of FDR's many years (1933 -1945) of hubris trying to do with government that which only a free economy can do.

I look forward to your future writings.

Written 110 days ago 5 replies

TLaCour

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My thoughts as well. I don't agree with Jim about Obama not being around for the climax. It does seem that Obamao, like FDR, has had an active hand in worsening / extending this crisis and intends to stick around through the climax. But instead of running for a 3rd, 4th or 5th term, a series of crises will permit the suspension of elections and the Constitution and BHO will just be there "until the emergency passes."

Written 110 days ago

johngalt

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TLaCour I've read many of your comments and respect your well read opinions but I must disagree. If the Obamunist stayed in office I do believe a civil war would break out. Even the brainwashed, half-witted, t.v. addicted, sorry excuse for citizens, would have to wake up and take notice. A truly chaotic scene.

Written 109 days ago

TLaCour

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I sincerely hope you are right, but that's all - hope, optimism in the face of experience. This people we call Americans have submitted to greater and more numerous degradation of their liberties as time has gone by. Not only is there no sign that they comprehend, there is every sign that they believe these depradations are GOOD stuff. Yeah, those greedy banksters, order those fatcats' pay to be cut! Yeah, those damn auto CEOs flying around in their own jets, NAIL 'em, screw those greedy bondholders, let's return the wealth of the people to its rightful owners. Etcetera. Like the Venezuelans and their Chavez, a solid majority of this people is CHEERING Owhmabamthankyouma'ama. Same pattern as with FDR, just going farther, like FDR went farther than Lincoln.

Civil unrest might break out, but I think not civil war. The minimum necessary minority doesn't exist this time, neither in percentage of the people, wealth, or leadership as it did in 1860 or in 1775. If people do begin armed resistance, and I think that likely, it will be the signal and the opportunity for the martial law I fear is coming.

Written 109 days ago

Irv

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Not having been to this site before, I thought Jim was an activist-liberal blogger, since I can resonate so well with what he is saying, and I generally do NOT resonate with libertarian outlooks. But from the comments he receives that go into their politics, I see that I was wrong. And especially in these (above) replies! It's obvious that this is not the group I thought it was.

But I really just wanted to re-state what I earlier said in a response to a response: that you people seem to entirely overlook the fact that we have thus far kept our head above water, as a society (whether that is good or bad, I'm no longer sure, but it has given us some breathing space), thanks to what FDR did on his 1930s watch. Had his programs not been pushed through the conservative dissent at the time, we'd have no Social Security or unemployment insurance today . . . and the mess we'd be in now is inconceivable. Count your blessings, all of you who have been receiving one or the other, especially if you've had to fall back on it.

Written 109 days ago

JimQ

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The country is bankrupt Irv old boy. Face it. Hail FDR!!!!!

Written 108 days ago

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Joseppi

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Yes, music is a potent catalyst to motivate a stagnant society. Here's another oldie worth listening to :

In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find

In the year 3535
Can't tell the truth, can't tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
Won't need no teeth ,won't need your eyes
Won't find a thing to do
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms are hanging limp at your side
Your legs have nothing to do
Some machines doin' that for you

In the year 6565
Won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your sons, pick your daughters too
From the bottom of a long glass tube wouwo

In the year 7510
If god is commin' he should make it by then
Maybe he'll look around and say:
"Now it's time for the judgement day!"

In the year 8510
God is gonna shake his mighty hand
He'll leave a salient place where man has been
Or tear it down and start again wouwo

In the year 9595
I'm wondering if man is gonna be alive
He's taken everything earth had to give
And he's put back nothing wouwo

Now it's been 10.000 years man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew now man's reign is through
But through eternal light the twinklin' of starlight
So very far away now it's night to yesterday

In the 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find...

In the year 3535
Won't tell the truth tell no lies
Everything you think do and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545 (fading...)

Written 110 days ago 1 reply

Anonymous

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Jim,

My brother and I enjoy your articles immensely. Funny we summered in Stone Harbor as kids and it is indeed a small world. The P raised their prices this year and they had an awful year. Still hear stories about McMahon and Diller cavorting in the hotel's pool drunk and naked.

Thank You,

LM Native

Written 110 days ago

ReverseEngineer

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I took the recommendation of my friend CBX55 to read Jim's American Pie post, and then to join this site. American Pie is indeed a wonderful retelling of the American Dream as it played itself out in Music History. For those of us old enough to remember the events and the music as they transpired from the 60s onward, American Pie really did capture the spirit of America as it decayed through those years.

Other songs also from the period captured some of the zeitgeist, mentioned just above is the Zager & Evans tune, "In the Year 2525". You would also have to mention Barry Macguire's "Eve of Destruction" here, with its remarkable parallels to our current geopolitical nightmare:

<The eastern world, it is exploding
Violence flarin’, bullets loadin’
You’re old enough to kill, but not for votin’
You don’t believe in war, but what’s that gun you’re totin’
And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin’

But you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
of destruction.

Don’t you understand what I’m tryin’ to say
Can’t you feel the fears I’m feelin’ today?
If the button is pushed, there’s no runnin’ away
There’ll be no one to save, with the world in a grave
[Take a look around ya boy, it's bound to scare ya boy]

And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
of destruction.

Yeah, my blood’s so mad feels like coagulatin’
I’m sitting here just contemplatin’
I can’t twist the truth, it knows no regulation.
Handful of senators don’t pass legislation
And marches alone can’t bring integration
When human respect is disintegratin’
This whole crazy world is just too frustratin’

And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
Ah, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
of destruction.

Think of all the hate there is in Red China
Then take a look around to Selma, Alabama
You may leave here for 4 days in space
But when you return, it’s the same old place
The poundin’ of the drums, the pride and disgrace
You can bury your dead, but don’t leave a trace
Hate your next-door neighbor, but don’t forget to say grace
And… tell me over and over and over and over again, my friend
You don’t believe
We’re on the eve
Of destruction
Mm, no no, you don’t believe
We’re on the eve
of destruction.>

Much as I remember well these songs from my youth (and many others courtesy of Folk Singers like Pete Seeger and Phil Ochs and Joan Baez, et al) its well to remember that we live in a world TODAY that is spinning down around us, and it hasn't been missed by current songwriters. I'll just put up one set of lyrics, from Coldplay, "When I ruled the World"

<I used to rule the world
Seas would rise when I gave the word
Now in the morning I sleep alone
Sweep the streets I used to own

I used to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemies' eyes
Listen as the crowd would sing
"Now the old king is dead, long live the king!"
One minute I held the key
Next the walls were closed on me
And I discovered that my castle stands
Upon pillars of salt, and pillars of sand

I hear Jerusalem bells a'ringing
Roman Cavalry choirs are singing
Be my mirror, my sword and shield
My missionaries in a foreign field
For some reason I can't explain
Once you'd gone it was never,
never an honest word
That was when I ruled the world

It was the wicked and wild wind
Blew down the doors to let me in
Shattered windows and the sound of drums
People couldn't believe what I'd become
Revolutionaries wait
For my head on a silver plate
Just a puppet on a lonely string
Oh...who would ever wanna be king

I hear Jerusalem bells were ringing
Roman Cavalry choirs were singing
Be my mirror, my sword and shield
My missionaries in a foreign field
For some reason I can't explain
I know St. Peter won't call my name
Never an honest word
But that was when I ruled the world

Whoaaa (x4)

(Whoa...) Here Jerusalem bells were ringing
(Whoa...) Roman Cavalry choirs were singing
(Whoa...) Be my mirror, my sword and shield
(Whoa...) My missionaries in a foreign field
(Whoa...) For some reason I can't explain
(Whoa...) I know St. Peter won't call my name
Never an honest word
But that was when I ruled the world>

Coldplay is a British band, and it really was in Britain in the 1600s during the Colonial period that Fiat Money was truly born, courtesy of the Bank of England and Master of the Mint Sir Isaac Newton, beloved by mathematicians as the Inventor of the Calculus (though personally I think Leibniz got there first and certainly his notation was better).

When I Ruled the World really is a parable for the World Domination of Anglo-American Banksterism, for yes indeed they HAVE ruled the world for some 300 years plus now. And no, St. Peter will NOT be calling the name of the Pigmen from the Squid when the monetary system House of Cards comes a tumbling down here, as it must. Through liquidity swaps, ALL the Central Banks that collectively create the money we all use throughout the world are engaged in a spiralling process that can only end as Voltaire predicted the fate must be for ALL Paper Money, it returns to its intrinsic Value, which is Zero.

With the death of the monetary system we use, so also will Goobermints around the world sputter and fail, and we are most definitely in for the "Crisis" period experienced before during monetary collapse periods Jim identifies in his Table, but this time an order of magnitude larger because the population is an order of magnitude larger and because the resources we have left now are an order of magnitude smaller. I sincerely doubt the crisis period we are entering will last a mere score of years, more like Jim Kunstler writes we are entering a "Long Emergency" that probably will be with us for the next century as we ever so unwillingly are forced to let go of the benefits brought to us by the Thermodynamic energy of Oil and the inventions of the Machine Age.

I write about these problems all the time, and hope to contribute here on The Burning Platform a perspective that can help people prepare for the Big Show, which is coming to a Theatre Near You. Coming sooner than most people would like to believe, and a future that will test our very survival on the planet as a species. It doesn't HAVE to end in Extinction, but unless people wake up soon to what is coming down the pipe here, that is how it probably will play out. Hopefully, we all can contribute to ringing the ALARM loud enough and get off the Oil Jones in such a way that the Detox doesn't kill us all. It won't be pretty no matter what though.

Written 110 days ago 7 replies

Anonymous

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Here is an older article of Jim's based on the Coldplay lyrics:

http://theburningplatform.com/economy/when-america-ruled-the-world

Written 109 days ago

cbxer55

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Good to see ya here RE. As you know I visit a lot of sites, with all the frikkin time I have.

I think your brand of writing will go down real good in these parts. A lot of the folks here

seem more inclined in that direction. As usual there are a few nutballs, what site does not have them?

Written 109 days ago

Charlie Brown

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I don't want to see the big show, leave me along. signed Complacency

Written 106 days ago

TLaCour

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RE, thanks for that post. You're obviously using that lump on your shoulders for more than a place to hang that nifty tophat. Crisis an order of magnitude larger, at least, probably more like geometrically (if not exponentially) larger, since the contributing terms of resources and population are at least multiplicative.

I'm intrigued by your comment that "it really was in Britain in the 1600s during the Colonial period that Fiat Money was truly born, courtesy of the Bank of England and Master of the Mint Sir Isaac Newton, beloved by mathematicians as the Inventor of the Calculus (though personally I think Leibniz got there first and certainly his notation was better)."

The Colonies (and then States) in N.A. certainly began issuing fiat money themselves, but I hadn't known that Newton began the practise in England. As with so many things, like our current complaint that "that ain't constitutional!", the roots of the problem and the time it has been growing are deeper and longer, respectively, than most realize.

Written 105 days ago

ReverseEngineer

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Thanks TLC. Since it was my first post on the Burning Platform, I tried to make it a good one. AS CBX will attest though, there's a lot more where that came from. I'm nearing 10,000 posts on the topics of Economic Collapse now. Maybe tonight I'll dig some out of the archives to post here on BP.

Written 105 days ago

cbxer55

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Yeah, RE has a wide and varied history. I first stumbled upon him on the Peak Oil News and Message Boards website. His style and the fire in his writings attracted me pretty dang fast. I am not much for writing myself, I can easily screw up a two-sentence paragraph! But I know good writing when I sees it.

Anyways, RE, as both Rogue Economist and Reverse Engineer has been permanently banned from that site. And me along with him for constantly trying to remind the folks there of his existence. :-)

So RE started his own site, http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/reverseengineering/. Now y'all have to sign up with Yahoo, and Yahoo Groups to read his stuff. Butif you like what you see here,I encourage you to do so.

Theres been rocky roads, of course. He got off on a tangent of the Moon Landings were faked, and I just am not into conspiracy theories. So for awhile I was absent from his site. But I just could not stay away! :-(

Weak I guess. But when TSHTF, I will certainly wish I was closer to Alaska than frikkin Oklahoma.

Written 104 days ago

ReverseEngineer

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Thanks for the Plug CBX :-)

I get banned regularly, because I tend to write over the top prose that many people don't agree with, and I am susceptible to being provoked into napalm contests when people flame me. I'll try to keep it under control here. This is a GREAT site! Kudos to Jim Quinn, marvelous stuff all around here.

Written 104 days ago

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Kaboom

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Brilliant article, Jim, but.....

Your belief in Peak Oil is of almost similar religious intensity to the fervour of the Global Warmeners. Peak Oil is a furphy, created by those who want the sheeple to believe that oil is rare and expensive to extract, and indeed is getting more rare.

History has proven (supply and demand) that technology will triumph over supply issues. Just think of coal-to-oil SASOL plants, which in the US and Australia will ensure hundreds of years supply of oil.

Just as long as the Greenies are appropriately constrained.

Thanks for the wonderful memories of one of the greatest songs of last century - I have got 2 years on you from 1961 - I agree with your analysis, but I have never understood the reference to the "pink carnation". Prom night, maybe??

Anyway, thanks for the wonderful memories, but Jeez, shouldn't you be talking to your health care professionals about appropriate medication?

Only joking. Good and scary stuff.

Written 110 days ago 1 reply

Anonymous

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A bit dramatic:

"This old man will join his three sons at the barricades when the time comes. The fools and fanatics who run this country are certain. I am not certain of the final outcome, but I know which side I’ll choose. Do you?"

There will be no barricades... the wealth is gone and the American Dream ship has sailed. No one will want to take your "stuff" or live in your house (chances are its not yours anyway). Like most Americans, you refuse to take responsibility for the financial mess and try to blame others for the choices you made. All that is left is a sense of entitlement and the self destructive urge to take the rest of the world with you.

You "sell" your vote to whoever promises you that you won't have to pay taxes and ignore the borrowing in your children's name. You acquiesced in turning the economy into a war making, wealth destroying machine. Not only did the military buildup help bring down the Soviet Union, it has brought down America as well. But the band plays on.

Written 109 days ago 2 replies

tom

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do you know if you can you buy American pie on itunes?

Written 109 days ago 1 reply

arby63

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A great post! All too true and a forewarning to those oblivious to our peril. Bravo!

Written 109 days ago

mogar

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Liked the article very much. I was quit a bit older than eight when American Pie came out.

One criticism however, I don’t think you were entirely fair when describing the Clinton ‘surplus’ and the Bush subsequent ‘deficit’. First I have always thought that tying economics to the person holding the presidency at the time is spurious at best putting truly extraordinary events aside. The economy is a lumbering beast it can’t turn on a dime no matter what the president of the time might do or not do.

Clintons’ ‘surplus’ was only a surplus if you agree that Social Security surpluses should be used to create it. The Bush ‘deficit’ might, just might have something to do with that little 911 dustup. I have seen estimates that the entire affair has a price tag of nearly 2 trillion dollars over several years after the event. I was out of work in the IT industry for a solid 6 months so this is not difficult at all for me to believe.

Regardless of all the above we are using a flawed monetary system, fiat money. This has been in place in its purist form for about 38 years. It will not work, it has never worked and it will not work this time. Regardless of who is president, hairy thunder Republican or cosmic muffin Democrat the end will be the same as it has always been. So comparing one president to another based on what occurred economically during his terms is really a useless waste of time.

Written 109 days ago 3 replies

max

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Although I agree that there are three huge problems facing the United States - out-of-hand public and private debt ; climate change ; oil addiction and terrorism - I doubt that we're going through anything like a Millennial Crisis.

What you haven't taken into consideration is that strong and long-lasting economic growth can relativize a high debt burden. In 1950 for instance, gross national debt accounted for roughly 94% of GDP. Between 1950 and 1980, the total amount of national debt tripled, but in 1980, national debt only accounted for 33.3% of GDP.

Inflation and economic growth can bring debt back to a managable level. And with the the green energy revolution ahead, it is likely that the U.S. economy can grow again at rates which increase prosperity and ensure stability.

for more info, check out this blog post:
"things look pretty bad, don’t they? yet there’s reason to be optimistic" at
http://www.whatmattersweblog.com/2009/10/22/things-look-pretty-bad-dont-they-yet-theres-reason-to-be-optimistic/

Written 109 days ago 1 reply

brutlstrudl

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Strauss and Howe are bullshit according to Zeppelin

Written 109 days ago

SSS

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Another brilliant article, Jim.

While we're headed to the barricades, consider that Don McClean's devil, Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones, were not beyond biting social comment. Here's what the Stones had to say in the final stanzas of their song "Shattered" about New York City in 1977 (Keith Richards supposedly wrote some of the lyrics in the back of a New York taxi, probably while he was shooting up with heroin).

Don't you know the crime rate is going up, up, up, up, up
To live in this town you must be tough, tough, tough, tough, tough!
You got rats on the west side
Bed bugs uptown
What a mess, this town's in tatters, I've been shattered
My brain's been battered, splattered all over Manhattan

Uh-huh, this town's full of money grabbers
Go ahead, bite the Big Apple, don't mind the maggots, uh huh
Shadoobie, my brain's been battered
My friends they come around they
Flatter, flatter, flatter, flatter, flatter, flatter, flatter
Pile it up, pile it high on the platter

Written 109 days ago

davidh

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Cross posted from Mish's column at globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com on being overqualified:

Jojo wrote : "There are simply too many people for the available jobs"

Jim Quinn writes of the "Fourth Turning" that will take place over the next 15 years. He lists several unresolved issues, #1 of which is government debt, that will have to be resolved before a prosperous society is achieved.

I view this "too many people for the jobs" as a much bigger problem than government debt. If everyone was working to their potential, the taxes could get paid and deficits could hold steady. 20% U-6 unemployment levels suck.

Written 109 days ago

ray

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Wow, thanks

Written 108 days ago

TIMEISRUNNINGOUT

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Great article. I actually saw Don McLean about 7 years ago in Woodstock, IL at the opera house. (same one from movie Groundhog Day).

He put on a good show.

My only disagreement is that I do think there are a lot more people out there that are clued in to the country's situation then you think. In my circle of friends maybe 70 % see a millenial crisis on the verge of breakout the rest think we will recover like every other time.

Written 108 days ago 1 reply

Thunderbird

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Jim, excellant writing. I feel the pessimism all around me. People are becoming aware that something is very wrong and many are not yet ready to talk about it because I sense they are freightened to consider the implications.

I was born in 1947 so I lived the history of this cycle you are talking about. Your words ring so true.

It is so important to prepare for the coming crises emotionally - and have a good support group established. This is my plan. I have many mechanical skills and am associating myself with the same type of people. The organized thinkers, planners, and doers will survive this. Unfortunately the many brain dead (and there are many) will not survive. Many of the rich will not survive it either.

I believe we will come through this as a stronger people and country - as we have before. The American Spirit is not dead, it is just smothered right now by so many brain dead people.

Written 108 days ago 3 replies

MikeD

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Thunderbird,

For the most part I agree with your comment. However where I disagree is in regards to us coming out of this as a stronger country. I wish I could agree but the facts all around us just do not validate that idea. I went to Wall St. as a 21 year old back in 1986. I thought that was where the best and brightest of our nation huddle. I was greatly disappointed. By the mid '90's I realized something was very wrong. Things just did not add up. I began on a quest to find why I felt the way I did. My research began then and still goes on. As a 44 year old who has made his living trading the finacial markets while undertaking this quest for the truth I can tell you what has become clearly evident is how incredibly deceived we are as a nation. The deception has been going on for decades and its results are a bankrupt nation who's citizens are so misinformed and who's leaders are so stupid, arrogant and corrupt it does not even realize it is bankrupt at this late stage. The devastation that will occur over the next 1 to 2 years will be so overwhelming that this nation will struggle to stay together. There are more derivative losses on the books of the major banks than the entire GDP of the world several times over. There is no way out because those with the losses have all the power to make the laws and they will never allow the correct steps to be taken because it would mean their demise. We are all guilty of not paying attention while this has been going on for years. We allowed them to distract us with useless agruments between political parties, with pop culture from OJ Simpson to balloon boy. While we were distracted they have dismantled our nation's laws and looted our treasury. I am afraid it is too late. The great experiment that was a free republic is in its final chapter. "Seek first the Kingdom of God" if you hope to survive what is about to unfold. God Bless.

Written 106 days ago

joereno

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MikeD--I couldn't agree more with your sentiments.

Written 106 days ago

Thunderbird

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MikeD

The wheat is about to be separated from the chaff. I have great faith that this country will make it through this crisis and be better as a result of it. Sure the herd is braindead just like the cattle we eat. And the leaders we have are a result of this braindead herd that is being micromanaged. The herd has always been braindead throughout history. It is the ones that have separated from the herd that have made economies. And this country has alot of those that have separated themselves from the herd.

Right now we are going through a weeding out process of letting our non-productive businesses fail. And what businesses am I referring to? How about tourism, hospitality, and many retail businesess that have thrived on consumer spending that was created by the real estate boom and easy credit. In government it will be the social services, education, and welfare people that will be weeded out, just to start. The herd will follow the food and will eat where they are led to eat - just like the cattle we raise for food. This means factory jobs.

We have had the mistaken notion that the braindead herd could be made to go to college and learn higher education. So our education system was modified to support that end. At the same time we closed down vocational training. What we seem to have produced is a lot of educated idiots that went into the financial sector and at the same time we are sorely lacking skilled people in the electro-mechanical sector.

In addition to this we have gone to a centralized system of government where the Federal government is dictating how the economy is to be set up and run. For some reason the people running things think the government can produce wealth. Braindead thinking - educated idiots. Oh many of them went to Harvard.

The sooner this system fails the sooner we can push this monster aside and start over. I do not see doom & gloom in the failure of this corrupt financial system nor the failure of the federal government. Thou shalt not resist evil! Save the bullets. Let the system fail on it's own weight. When it fails then will be the time that honest men can step forward and take the leadership positions. In our form of government it was always meant that our wisest and most knowledgable men would take the leadership positions. Our constitution was made for honest men.

We have much infrastructure to rebuild and improve in this country. Our water and wastewater systems alone sorely need improvement. Our highways and bridges need rebuilding. We have much work to do and many small businesses that can do this work. We need factories to produce our everyday commodities. We need new automobile factories, refineries, power plants, etc. WE need more fiber to make cloths, furniture, etc. Hemp production would create many jobs. What we need is less government and this will be what we will get as the financial collapse continues. I can go on and on with what we "can do". What we don't need is government getting in the way. So let the whole corrupt financial and government structure as it now is collapse. The sooner the better. And MikeD get out of your pessimism, join the optimistic, and root for the collapse of this corrupt system. We don't need a revolution to change things. We just need to wait for the whole damn system to fail then pick up the peices and move on. LOL

Written 100 days ago

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joe reno

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Mr. Quinn: I can't tell you how personally meaningful to me I find many of your articles. Thank you for American Pie. I often tell my three sons that I will help them man the barricades but that I am too old to lead the charge. I have no doubt that we are on the verge of a major reckoning. Natural economic forces can only be resisted and postponed temporarily. The moment of truth is coming, of that I have no doubt.

Written 107 days ago

Obi Wan

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Excellent essay. Thank You.

Written 107 days ago

anarkst

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Jim, you should write novels! Excellent reading but considering that even the simplest of things is the results of infinite number of events preceding, attempting to predict the future is a practical impossibility. There is no doubt that we are in a wild period of time, but beyond that, ??

Written 106 days ago

oldguy1

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Great stuff Jim-- I believe there are millions of us who feel the same way.. We are getting a bit long in the teeth physically, and need to mentor/ inform/ awaken the younger generations to carry the fight into the upcoming generations.. This will be a long struggle IMHO, playing out over 10-20 yrs.. Keep the faith and the fight...Best! og

Written 106 days ago

cbxer55

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Speaking of music here, anyone like Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody? Well I stumbled on this parody, reworded to suit the times, so to speak! :>)

Off topic, but oh so appropriate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5EFEQ9aY6o&feature=player_embedded#

Written 106 days ago 1 reply

TLaCour

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Jim, this is my 4th read of the article, and it still kicks ass. It just gets better with repetition, like a good ale.

I rarely read an article or book twice, but I expect I will come back here to read this again several more times if the software doesn't bury it. Don McLean wrote another song that moved my generation deeply, and me in particular. In my idealistic gonna-save-the-world hippie days, I made a special trip to Notre Dame D'Auvers to sing this (and the rest of the song) with my best friend and fellow world-explorer at Van Gogh's grave:

Starry, starry night.
Paint your palette blue and grey,
Look out on a summer's day,
With eyes that know the darkness in my soul.
Shadows on the hills,
Sketch the trees and the daffodils,
Catch the breeze and the winter chills,
In colors on the snowy linen land.

Now I understand what you tried to say to me,
How you suffered for your sanity,
How you tried to set them free.
They would not listen, they did not know how.
Perhaps they'll listen now.

Hah! and I win, my comment is #100. What do I win? Can I be more like Irak?

Written 106 days ago 3 replies

WordMan

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Speaking of patterns in human history, the book of Judges, the 7th book in the Bible, illustrates that pattern and identifies the cause. That cause is outlined in the second chapter, reprinted here. However, each repeated cycle had a the refrain: 'the people did what was evil in the sight of the LORD, and, everyone did was was right in his own eyes.'

Now the angel of the LORD went up from Gilgal to Bochim. And he said, "I brought you up from Egypt and brought you into the land that I swore to give to your fathers. I said, 'I will never break my covenant with you, and you shall make no covenant with the inhabitants of this land; you shall break down their altars.' But you have not obeyed my voice. What is this you have done? So now I say, I will not drive them out before you, but they shall become thorns in your sides, and their gods shall be a snare to you." As soon as the angel of the LORD spoke these words to all the people of Israel, the people lifted up their voices and wept. And they called the name of that place Bochim. And they sacrificed there to the LORD. When Joshua dismissed the people, the people of Israel went each to his inheritance to take possession of the land. And the people served the LORD all the days of Joshua, and all the days of the elders who outlived Joshua, who had seen all the great work that the LORD had done for Israel. And Joshua the son of Nun, the servant of the LORD, died at the age of 110 years. And they buried him within the boundaries of his inheritance in Timnath-heres, in the hill country of Ephraim, north of the mountain of Gaash. And all that generation also were gathered to their fathers. And there arose another generation after them who did not know the LORD or the work that he had done for Israel. And the people of Israel did what was evil in the sight of the LORD and served the Baals. And they abandoned the LORD, the God of their fathers, who had brought them out of the land of Egypt. They went after other gods, from among the gods of the peoples who were around them, and bowed down to them. And they provoked the LORD to anger. 13They abandoned the LORD and served the Baals and the Ashtaroth. So the anger of the LORD was kindled against Israel, and he gave them over to plunderers, who plundered them. And he sold them into the hand of their surrounding enemies, so that they could no longer withstand their enemies. Whenever they marched out, the hand of the LORD was against them for harm, as the LORD had warned, and as the LORD had sworn to them. And they were in terrible distress. Then the LORD raised up judges, who saved them out of the hand of those who plundered them. Yet they did not listen to their judges, for they whored after other gods and bowed down to them. They soon turned aside from the way in which their fathers had walked, who had obeyed the commandments of the LORD, and they did not do so. Whenever the LORD raised up judges for them, the LORD was with the judge, and he saved them from the hand of their enemies all the days of the judge. For the LORD was moved to pity by their groaning because of those who afflicted and oppressed them. But whenever the judge died, they turned back and were more corrupt than their fathers, going after other gods, serving them and bowing down to them. They did not drop any of their practices or their stubborn ways. So the anger of the LORD was kindled against Israel, and he said, "Because this people has transgressed my covenant that I commanded their fathers and have not obeyed my voice, I will no longer drive out before them any of the nations that Joshua left when he died, in order to test Israel by them, whether they will take care to walk in the way of the LORD as their fathers did, or not." So the LORD left those nations, not driving them out quickly, and he did not give them into the hand of Joshua.

Out of the recurring cycles of disobedience, foreign oppression, cries of distress, and deliverance emerges another important theme—the covenant faithfulness of the God of the Bible. His amazing patience and long-suffering are no better demonstrated than during this period in history.

Written 106 days ago

Anonymous

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Re the barricades...I was thinking the same ...that 40 years ago i didnt quite get it and my involvement protesting against vietnam as a young teenager was more lip service to follow what everyone else was doing, but NOW, having watched and concluded all that you write about I am finally ready to make that stand shoulder to shoulder .

Written 105 days ago

Burning

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You are a treasure.

Written 104 days ago

Anonymous

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Odd comment from Bush Sr about 9/11‏

George Bush's biggest accomplishment according to his demon father was the way he handled 9/11.

Then he SMILES when he refers to "this 9/11."

Let's see:

1. Endless war in Iraq and Afghanistan

2. Trillions of dollars wasted - with big portions of it going to Bush cronies

3. A complete gutting of the Bill of Rights

And there is still no credible information on what happened that day: Building 7 collapsing, US air defense shut down by Cheney's order, no plane debris at the Pentagon, and on and on it goes.

"He passed the test."
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/723.html

Written 104 days ago

earthman92

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What is a "Three Percenter"?

During the American Revolution, the active forces in the field against the King's tyranny never amounted to more than 3% of the colonists. They were in turn actively supported by perhaps 10% of the population. In addition to these revolutionaries were perhaps another 20% who favored their cause but did little or nothing to support it. Another one-third of the population sided with the King (by the end of the war there were actually more Americans fighting FOR the King than there were in the field against him) and the final third took no side, blew with the wind and took what came.

Three Percenters today do not claim that we represent 3% of the American people, although we might. That theory has not yet been tested. We DO claim that we represent at least 3% of American gun owners, which is still a healthy number somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million people. History, for good or ill, is made by determined minorities. We are one such minority. So too are the current enemies of the Founders' Republic. What remains, then, is the test of will and skill to determine who shall shape the future of our nation.

The Three Percent today are gun owners who will not disarm, will not compromise and will no longer back up at the passage of the next gun control act. Three Percenters say quite explicitly that we will not obey any futher circumscription of our traditional liberties and will defend ourselves if attacked. We intend to maintain our God-given natural rights to liberty and property, and that means most especially the right to keep and bear arms. Thus, we are committed to the restoration of the Founders' Republic, and are willing to fight, die and, if forced by any would-be oppressor, to kill in the defense of ourselves and the Constitution that we all took an oath to uphold against enemies foreign and domestic.

We are the people that the collectivists who now control the government should leave alone if they wish to continue unfettered oxygen consumption. We are the Three Percent. Attempt to further oppress us at your peril. To put it bluntly, leave us the hell alone. Or, if you feel froggy, go ahead AND WATCH WHAT HAPPENS.

Written 103 days ago 1 reply

Moto

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Somehow Comfortably Numb by Pink Floyd fits in here somewhere.

More than 1% care. I agree that many people are busy living their everyday lives but that has occurred throughout history. Many who do care recognize that the power lies in the hands of a very small number of people and feel abslolutely powerless to affect change.

Written 102 days ago

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You have a lot of people in agreement with you that there is a distasteful liaison between big banking and big government. One would have to be truly deluded or blind not to recognize that the federal government is operating in the best interest of the (international) banking establishment rather than in the best interest of the people and the Constitution of the United States. This is one of several grievances that we are withstanding. We all know that there is much more extensive corruption in our national government.

So now, finally, can we please all recognize that we have long been living with elected legislatures and an executive (one in a string of them) wholly removed from performing their mandated tasks. They are mandated to do one thing, uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States. I am aware that we now interpret the Constitution as a "living, breathing document," and have been coerced otherwise into changing the Constitution without amending it. But that commonly used analogy doesn't fly any more, not now that the Constitution is more dead than alive. It's not a living, breathing document, it's a document on a respirator and with IV tubes poked into it from every corporate leach you can name.

Seriously, read the Constitution of the United States, and then come back to me and tell me that ANY of this crap that we have been enduring from our federal government is sanctioned in that document or any subsequent amendment. For example, where does our Constitution allow for a national government to bail out private institutions with public monies; issue currency through a surrogate (Fed) based on fiat; enter into foreign wars without congressional declaration of war; subjugate our laws with international agreements not approved by the Senate (e.g. NAFTA) which should be ratified as treaties... Where in the U.S. Constitution is it suggested that the Congress can abdicate its responsibility (to a private institution called the "Federal" Reserve) to issue a sovereign currency, as opposed to retaining the power "to coin money, [and] regulate the value thereof..."? Come on, the best founding document in the history of any nation that I know of has been torched, shredded, fouled and desecrated. (But you can see the original copy in the National Archives!!!)

I believe that most Americans have a finite capacity to tolerate all this. I'm disgusted with what I see coming out of Washington, and have been for years. We should all pledge to make 2010 the real year of change in America. EVERY incumbent U.S. Representative and Senator who voted to pass NAFTA, TARP, any of the last many budgets, etc. (you get the picture) should be voted out of office with abject disgust and in true protest for this mega mess that we find ourselves in. I don't care if they're Republican, Democrat or independent. OUT! Vote for people with morals and a true commitment to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States.

By the way, I'm not a "right winger," "tea-bagger," "Obamanite," "Bushie," "Birther," "San Francisco liberal," or any other fabricated distracting definition of a human being, I'm an American citizen with a belief that government can be a lot better than what we have now. Let's go back to the Constitution and Bill of Rights, add a sprinkle more human rights, a little more clarity on what is real money, and make a distinction between what a corporation is versus what a human is, and we'll pretty much have it right... America is dead, long live America!

Written 102 days ago 1 reply